tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post202374086656557043..comments2024-01-16T08:40:53.682+00:00Comments on <a href="http://www.openeurope.org.uk">Open Europe</a>: Sarkozy wins back party leadership, but road to French presidential election remains very longOEhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00556463374230498875noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-39686205554231641692014-12-05T13:26:10.308+00:002014-12-05T13:26:10.308+00:00Preferred other candidate in the run off.
Sarkozy...Preferred other candidate in the run off.<br /><br />Sarkozy/Jup: LePen hoping the left will rather vote for him than for LePen.<br /><br />Left (hard to see Hollande there, they are unlikely to make the run off with him as candidate, anyway most with a bit of profile have themselves linked with the Hollande disaster, which makes it very difficult to find a candidate. Tip might be to get a woman, probably as crap or worse than a man, but that will be found out first after the election): LePen hoping that the Sarkophiles will rather vote for him/her than LePen.<br /><br />LePen: A lefty preferably Hollande or someone with a similar approval rating.<br /><br />If there is no outright favorite (probably how it will be), both traditional candidates will have to attack each other and go for the undecided vote or potential not voters.<br />In that respect it is hard to see that issues where political class and electorate have very different opinions donot come up. The voters that will decide the first round and the run off have to be convinced in order to make it.<br /><br />So a lot of anti-austerity, immigration, EU/Euro is more or less guaranteed.<br />The views will be clear on that:<br />-no cuts (as little as possible), -no structural reforms that will hit important voter groups, so no structural reforms),<br />-less especially semi-3rd world immigration,<br />-less EU,<br />-Francetype reforms in the EZ (the Germany pays ones).<br /><br />Could be a killer for one of the traditionals when he/she is totally uncredible on these issues. With LePen having an advantage here.<br /><br />Might also be very different in the run off (compared to the 1st round). Electorate might want to give the traditionals a clear yellow card, but might be more hesitant for the final step. Riknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-12661820201738653362014-12-04T18:38:58.565+00:002014-12-04T18:38:58.565+00:00@Jon
Fully agree this has electioncampaign with to...@Jon<br />Fully agree this has electioncampaign with toxic EU high on the agenda written all over it.<br />LePen is a serious candidate.<br />Basically 3 candidates with roughly equal chance to make it to the run off. All will be continueing-social (read pro-deficit) and anti-EU to avoid to be the one falling out. With LePen probably by far the most natural candidate to champion those points.<br />Riknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-85920050624583576582014-12-02T12:29:58.045+00:002014-12-02T12:29:58.045+00:00Do you remember when Sarko was Merkel's pet mo...Do you remember when Sarko was Merkel's pet monkey?<br /><br />Do you recall Merkel campaigning with and for Sarkozy? <br /><br />When both Sarkozy and Merkel spoke of France and Germany as "The Axis"?<br /><br />It is getting more and more difficult to "sell" the EU in the nations of the EU.<br /><br />Italians commonly, outspokenly don't want, "To be ruled by the Germans and their euro".<br /><br />In Britain "EU" is toxic. It means corruption as a natural condition in high places - not an exception.<br /><br />It means dangerous, undiplomatic talk of confrontation with Russia - nuclear armed Russia.<br /><br />Sarkozy always was a political prostitute and today no less so.<br /><br />But as the British public don't trust Cameron or Miliband to take them out of the EU - Cameron's adoption of UKIP Policies didn't impress anyone.<br /><br />Sarkozy too - the French know they can buy the "Genuine Article" from le Pen not some hideous composite produced by Sarkozy.christhaihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05295016591612384314noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-55831634059489494922014-12-02T11:14:51.742+00:002014-12-02T11:14:51.742+00:00Does it really matter? Sarkosy and Hollande are bo...Does it really matter? Sarkosy and Hollande are both of the protectionist big government school, and what their policies will be, will be dictated by Germany and the Politburo, not by the FrenchRollohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18255460090580758354noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-22133354302897300612014-12-02T10:15:27.180+00:002014-12-02T10:15:27.180+00:00At a distance it looks like the French will get to...At a distance it looks like the French will get to choose between x,y,z. The selling arguments:<br /><br />For x: At least I'm not y or z<br />For y: At least I'm not x or z<br />For z: At least I'm not x or y<br /><br />I've seen similar situations and the outcome of an election when people vote for the least bad is usually very bad for the electorate. The least bad is rarely good enough for the situation.Jespernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-36750293229879623642014-12-01T22:26:04.518+00:002014-12-01T22:26:04.518+00:00It's interesting to see a trend that I have be...It's interesting to see a trend that I have been predicting for a long time, coming to fruition. The EU itself is gradually becoming a toxic topic in the domestic politics of member states.<br /><br />It's not happening at the same pace everywhere. It happened first in the UK, and in Germany it hardly seems to have begun at all, but the trend is towards the EU becoming the 'external enemy" that politicians run against when trying to gain favour, or to head off smaller anti-Eu parties.jon liveseynoreply@blogger.com