tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post2180189377525074527..comments2024-01-16T08:40:53.682+00:00Comments on <a href="http://www.openeurope.org.uk">Open Europe</a>: As the Ukrainian ceasefire falters what next on sanctions?OEhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00556463374230498875noreply@blogger.comBlogger18125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-81691303159309330362014-11-19T18:28:20.428+00:002014-11-19T18:28:20.428+00:00Just a couple of points in response.
Democratic R...Just a couple of points in response.<br /><br />Democratic Rules.<br /><br />As some of you have pointed out, the EU and Russia are on par. There is no "high ground" for either of them.<br /><br />The EU/Germany started the Ukrainian Civil War for GAIN.<br /><br />Russia took the opportunity to take the Crimea 'to protect its citizens' from the EU's neo-nazi groups.<br /><br />THAT was the point something could have been done.<br /><br />But there was NO Democracy at work on either side.<br /><br />When that Malaysian Airlines flight was shot down the EU blamed Russia and still does for God's sake.<br /><br />The guy who pulled the trigger could have been Ukrainian or Russian.<br /><br />Fact is - we don't know. <br /><br />What IS clear especially since Frau Merkel's warlike speech to Russia is that she has ratcheted up the ante to bring us within a few clicks of nuclear war.<br /><br />It is not worth wiping out millions of nice people (like me and mine) just to save face for the EU Commission and the German Foreign Office.<br /><br />Stop it now. christhaihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05295016591612384314noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-4793707493738836722014-11-19T14:11:12.066+00:002014-11-19T14:11:12.066+00:00@Anonymus
This is an issue that quoting the great ...@Anonymus<br />This is an issue that quoting the great 20th century American Sammy Davis Jr: Don't roll the dice if you can't pay the price.<br />Not if Putin is a nice guy or not.<br />The issue is if you donot want to do what is necessary as the EU to make it work, you should have stayed out of this game and never actually pushed it.<br /><br />Btw do you really think the EU did anybody a favour by showing here it has absolutely no testis and show that clearly to Russia?<br /><br />And btw the Baltics could try to improve their relation with Russia. Russians are often seen as second class citizens. Simply not sustainable. And are/were clearly actively supporting the coup/impeachment, simply not too clever to do that with a very big neighbour.<br />Nice to have an EU to prevent wars between France and Germany, but not very clever to replace that for a warlike situation with Russia. The dangers of the latter are much bigger.<br /><br />Messing up your foreign and energy policy and not having a proper plan B/alternative but windmills is simply complete moronic. Riknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-59700682265124735992014-11-19T13:55:08.437+00:002014-11-19T13:55:08.437+00:00@Jon
Sorry I messed you up with somebody else'...@Jon<br />Sorry I messed you up with somebody else's remark.<br />Fully agree with your last remark, this makes the Ukraine even look more like a failed state. Recognising that will be only a first step but an essential one in the process to stabilise the situation.<br /><br />Riknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-12340573807768403462014-11-19T13:32:29.327+00:002014-11-19T13:32:29.327+00:00Jon Livesy….and after Putin divides up Ukraine, pe...Jon Livesy….and after Putin divides up Ukraine, perhaps he could do the same in the Baltic states?Putin alone is using force to create his New Russia. He will only be stopped when confronted by force or the threat of force. Bullies only back down when confronted by superior force. Appeasement didn't work with Hitler. It won't work with Putin. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-54656474439128198692014-11-19T13:03:22.817+00:002014-11-19T13:03:22.817+00:00Putin is a dictator and an accomplished liar. No o...Putin is a dictator and an accomplished liar. No one in Russia can confront him or oppose him without being arrested, imprisoned on fraudulent charges, or even assassinated (e.g: Litvinenko). He has total control over the state media in Russia and so it should not be any surprise that he can lie and deceive the people of Russia. Do they know there are Russian troops fighting in Ukraine? NATO and the West do not present a threat to Russia but Putin's popularity and political survival depends on claiming otherwise. Putin is the greatest danger to world peace since Hitler. Unfortunately Putin will only stop his infantile games until confronted by military force. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-20650871590314180242014-11-18T21:30:33.922+00:002014-11-18T21:30:33.922+00:00"A point you completely miss is that this is ..."A point you completely miss is that this is from both sides in no way a democratic game."<br /><br />Rik, this appears to be entirely your own imagination. The Democracy or otherwise of the current actors is irrelevant here. There are interactions between state entities. How those state entities came to power isn't the issue. We know there were coups on both side. We read the newspapers, yes?<br /><br />What I am talking about is where those interactions should be headed. I am suggesting that we stop talking about "integrity" of Ukraine, and instead allow an already divided country to find some stability by making the partition a legal fact.jon liveseynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-33749654700273035132014-11-18T13:58:37.335+00:002014-11-18T13:58:37.335+00:00The tone of your comment, though balanced, is stil...The tone of your comment, though balanced, is still that we live in a world where the Russian problem can be carefully titrated. I think we need to be more brutally realistic. Russia is currently run autocratically by a rabid nationalist. He wouldn't be the first autocrat to subject his population to impoverishment in pursuit of his territorial goals. Sadly, the only realistic response is to stand up to Putin. This means pain, possibly severe, for western Europe. The peace dividend of the past 15 years will, regrettably, have to be given up as defences are rapidly strengthened. Gideon Rachman, in today's FT, says the current view in the West is that we are about 2-3 on the sanctions scale of 10. In other words, we have some way to go. And that is before Ukraine is supported by arms shipments. We can agree that we should proceed in a non-inflammatory manner, but proceed we must. As for a European reaction, remember that the UK is crucial for a credible defence position. It is only a matter of time before Juncker's position is progressively weakened by his association with tax avoidance, and the UK starts exacting a price for its military contributions. As for Mogherini, what a disaster. No-one Putin thinks he can get away with murder (both literally and metaphorically).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-53895859999417593162014-11-18T11:45:09.563+00:002014-11-18T11:45:09.563+00:00The OE blog deals with the details of sanctions. ...The OE blog deals with the details of sanctions. The commentators take both sides--mostly the Russian--of the substance of a dispute that can be argued about ad nauseum.<br /><br />For me, the essence of this all is that Pres. Putin has clearly indicated his willingness to redraw the boundaries of Europe by military means. His justifications for this--the protection of Russian minorities in Georgia, Crimea, the Donbass, and who knows where else--are exactly the same as those used by Hitler relating to protection of German minorities in Austria, Czechoslovakia and finally Poland in the late 1930s. Appeasing this Russian dictator will no more secure peace than did Neville Chamberlain after Munich. <br /><br />Pres. Putin has reopened the cold war with the entire panoply of saber rattling, including reminding us of his nuclear weapons and resuming long range flights of nuclear bombers. The cold war is a fact again. Too bad. The west (EU, NATO, US) should call a halt now to any territorial expansion in Europe via military means.<br /><br />In this writer's view, it is then necessary for the west to put a huge effort into obtaining a non-hydrocarbon energy source. Regardless of any environmental benefit (since that doesn't move the political needle at all), it would marginalize the economic and political importance of both Russia and the Arab countries, and end the largest capital transfer of human history.BelgoBelghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11880190907871581523noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-34471577108224910762014-11-17T16:04:29.239+00:002014-11-17T16:04:29.239+00:00@Jon
A crisis was always very likely however the W...@Jon<br />A crisis was always very likely however the West could have realised that never a sustainable integration into the EU/NATO network could be achieved.<br />Similar as Putin realises that getting the whole thing back into the Russian phere was not a realistic option.<br /><br />What the West, especially the EU could have done is trying to prevent it would get so far as it is now and completely disstabilises the Ukraine. End up with a mess at its own borders and likely be the one that has to pick up large parts of the bill. The EU messed up everything. One of the most lousy bets in international affairs.<br /><br />A point you completely miss is that this is from both sides in no way a democratic game. Putin at the end of the day couldnot care less if there are fair elections. He wants a buffer state and to send a clear message to the West: not more East.<br />West is hardly any better they supported unelected opposition against an elected president. Simply wanted to replace him not with decent folks, but simply with their own crooks. Couldnot care less about protection of minorities (when they are Russian). Basically want parliamentarian approval but how they would get that did hardly matter.<br />This will not end with elections and certainly no free and fair ones. Both parties always find a BS reason why elections are illegal, not fair, not free and therefor donot count, that is when the outcome is unwelcome. When it is welcome they were of course great.<br /><br />This is pure power play with the EU getting deeper and deeper in it, without even remotely considering to do the things that might actually win this one. And Putin knowing that he is fighting with an organisation with no testis on top of that. They seem to have a great talent to bring themselves into unnecessary trouble and being unable to get themselves out of it. <br />Riknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-62814754995725345722014-11-17T12:21:26.709+00:002014-11-17T12:21:26.709+00:00More sanctions will cause Russia long term damage,...More sanctions will cause Russia long term damage, so this tactic will only encourage Premier Putin to ensure that he has a short term fix to the problem. That means using his military to take over a conveniently shaped piece of Eastern Ukraine that will be sustainable as an effective part of Russia on a long term basis, as per the Crimea.<br /><br />This is a potentially very dangerous option but he seems to be a man willing to act tough and take a few risks. The majority of people in Eastern Ukraine are of Russian origin and consider themselves part of the Russian block and Putin will not 'hang them out to dry' any more than Margaret Thatcher was prepared to leave the Falkland Islanders to be taken over by Argentina. I am not saying that Russia's claim to Eastern Ukraine is the same as Britain's to The Falklands, only that in 'realpolitik' terms the end result will be the same. If you poke a bear in the eye do not be surprised if it gets aggressive. Also, Putin's political survival (and probably physical survival too) depends upon being seen as a very tough guy who is not to be messed with. Think 'Ceasar' from ancient Rome or a mafia 'don' and you won't go far wrong.<br /><br />The best that the EUSSR and the West as a whole can do is try to negotiate a sensible settlement using neutral third parties and as quickly as possible. There are still far too people on this planet with their fingers close to nuclear buttons that have as much sense as 'Dr Strangelove'.<br /><br />What's the alternative? More escalation trying to turn Ukraine into another Afghanistan for Russia? Very dangerous and I think if the people of Western Ukraine step back and think about things for a while they will see that this would not exactly be a good solution for them either. It would be their people being used as cannon fodder in this proxy war between Russia and the West.<br /><br />As for Dave, the least he says on the subject the better. He has already shown that his competence on foreign affairs matters is highly suspect to say the least; I mean, he did think that getting directly involved in the Syrian war would have been (and still could be) a good idea. And the UK foreign office's love of all things EUSSR will only pull him and us further into this very nasty Uktaine mess when it was started by others and needs to be finished by others. If he had any sense Dave would not have haranged Putin in Brisbaine (which only shows that he is a poodle of the White House and Merkel) but would have sympathised with Putin's position and tried to find some common ground that could be used as a starting point to end this madness. <br /><br />War games should be just that: games and not played out for real with the lives of many innocent people at stake.<br /><br />Average Englishmannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-59336038854287910212014-11-17T12:08:20.680+00:002014-11-17T12:08:20.680+00:00Isn't it time for the gullible Left to recogni...Isn't it time for the gullible Left to recognise that Putin alone is responsible for destabilising Ukraine - an independent, sovereign and weaker country? Putin is a bully who lives in a mad world of lies and disinformation. He lied repeatedly in denying that Russian special forces (Spetsnaz) were orchestrating the pro-Russian take-over in Crimea which led to the its annexation. He was complicit in supplying a BUK surface-to-air missile to pro-Russian separatists which resulted in the murder of 298 innocent civilians on flight MH17. He has continued to arm the separatists with heavy artillery and tanks (contrary to Minsk Agreement) and has repeatedly violated the borders of Ukraine (an act of war). The evidence is over-whelming that the majority of Ukrainians in the East want to live in peace and do not want to be part of Russia. Ukraine should be free to join any organisations it wishes to, and to determine its own future. Russia should get out of Ukraine now. It is not their country.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-14702101582720435472014-11-17T11:44:09.591+00:002014-11-17T11:44:09.591+00:00One thing I notice about all the reports is that t...One thing I notice about all the reports is that they contain no mention of what the Kiev forces are doing and whether they are receiving supplies of weapons, mercenaries or other reinforcements and material from the West. The silence is very eloquent.<br /><br />This is so reminiscent of the unbalanced reporting of the Yugoslav situation in the run-up to the West's unprovoked attack of 1999 ( and their one-sided intrusion into Croatia and Bosnia before that - under the guise of peace keeping).Edward Spaltonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04168350315689612490noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-15407357329980971872014-11-17T11:39:39.230+00:002014-11-17T11:39:39.230+00:00We will see the annexation of Donets and Labansk p...We will see the annexation of Donets and Labansk pretty soon, and it will rapidly become a fait accompli, as has the Crimea.Rollohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18255460090580758354noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-12495652481525881662014-11-17T11:06:15.067+00:002014-11-17T11:06:15.067+00:00The ridiculous "Mouse that Roared" EU cr...The ridiculous "Mouse that Roared" EU created the Ukraine conflict in the first place.<br /><br />The EU and no one else created the schism between West and East Ukraine.<br /><br />If the EU had not meddled in the Ukraine so that Germany could get its hands on Ukrainian coal and shale oil - and a lot of cheap labour - Russia would not have had the excuse - given to them by the EU's dupes - to annex the Crimea.<br /><br />So when we see the puffed up busybodies of the EU insulting the very dangerous character which is Putin, the Leader of Russia - nuclear tipped Russia - the EU is once again, in its incredible arrogance - playing their games which could result in World War 3.<br /><br />Which would be the 3rd World War Germany started.<br /><br />1. Let the EU apologise to Russia, the Ukraine and the World for destabilising the Ukraine and starting the Civil War.<br /><br />2. Let the Swiss or Norwegians set up a Conference for cool heads to determine what can be done by the belligerents to heal the wounds caused by external forces - the EU and Russia.<br /><br />Let those windbags (and moneybags) of the EU realise that Russia could occupy the whole of the Ukraine in a few hours.<br /><br />Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania could fall to Russia in a single day.<br /><br />The EU would scream for help to NATO - but wait - the EU didn't need NATO - because the EU claims to have kept the Peace itself for the past 69 years.<br /><br />Britain - get yourself out of this appalling and criminal organisation - the EU.<br /><br />Let David Cameron realise that he only sounds intelligent when he keeps his mouth firmly shut.christhaihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05295016591612384314noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-52559402264225526902014-11-15T13:55:28.200+00:002014-11-15T13:55:28.200+00:00What the EU wants with Ukraine?
Reduce corruption...What the EU wants with Ukraine?<br /><br />Reduce corruption, improve governance?<br />-How has that worked out in Bulgaria, Romania etc?<br />-Maybe not enough time has passed so maybe we should look at other countries like: Greece, Spain etc?<br />-Maybe not enough time has passed with those countries so maybe we should look at Italy?<br /><br />EUs history as a force for good government is at best sketchy. Turning Ukraine into a country that would be even close to meeting the Copenhagen criteria would take an Herculean effort, a lot of time and competent leadership.<br />But then again the ones running the show aren't the types to know anything about the lives of ordinary citizens or functioning of small businesses anywhere...<br />It seems unlikely that improving the life for Ukrainians was or is the goal or part of a strategy. <br /><br />But if improving the life for Ukrainians isn't the goal or part of a long term strategy, then what could it possibly be?<br /><br />Anyones guess really. However, it currently is an external enemy/distraction and incompetent, arrogant leaders love to have something else to blame for their own failures... <br /><br />Doubtful which one will come first: Lives of citizens in the EU improving or the resolution of the Ukrainian situation.Jespernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-23253111022987625872014-11-14T21:26:28.991+00:002014-11-14T21:26:28.991+00:00Cameron is not known for sound judgment, he is pla...Cameron is not known for sound judgment, he is playing follow my<br />leader after Merkel, it will cause<br />damage to the economy, but Dave will<br />not have to pay, and after it is all over, no one will say `thanks`<br />DaveAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-22066745100614751922014-11-14T21:22:07.631+00:002014-11-14T21:22:07.631+00:00A key to strategic success is not to put effort in...A key to strategic success is not to put effort into trying to get what you don't need, simply to deny it to someone else.<br /><br />Some people don't want to hear this, but the Eastern strip of Ukraine has a high proportion of Russian speakers, and its economy is still quite heavily integrated into the Russian economy.<br /><br />The EU blundered its way into a crisis over Ukraine, but that crisis was probably on the way.<br /><br />We would be wise to stop making this into a contest of wills, where everyone's economy suffers, and instead challenge Russia to allow internationally supervised votes to find out what each region of Ukraine wants for its future.jon liveseynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-4380857453683447172014-11-14T19:42:57.436+00:002014-11-14T19:42:57.436+00:00None of the 2 parties wants to stop this. Seperati...None of the 2 parties wants to stop this. Seperatist because after all that has happened see no basis left to live in peace with the West-Ukkies. Putin as destabilising the Ukraine goes exactly according plan. They are bust and have no grip on their finance. Plus he has a truckload of options left to avoid the West-Uks will win.<br />West-Ukkies as they think they can win this militarily. They cannot unless Russia wants that andit doesnot.<br />So basically this thing has a lot of potential for further escalation. Especially as the West responds in a very Pawlovian way (more fight, more sanctions).<br /><br />One has to keep in mind that Putin likely will step up as well. And a lot more strategic than the West.<br />Sanctions that disproportionately hit one country and not the rest.<br />Basically that opens the question which countries. The European decisionmakers; easy targets; structural damage; hit an already poor working economy.<br />He has the advantage that he sells energy a product for which there are always buyers. While for a lot of the stuff Europe sells no alternatives are available.<br /><br />Italian clothes when you kicjk them out others will step in and it is nearly impossible to turn that back lateron.<br />German cars (and destroy their sales infrastructure). Japan will very likely step in (simply as opportunity to good to be true). And it takes a decade or more to restore the damage done as a new infrastructure has to be built up.<br />Sanctions against specific countries iso against the EU. Putin is in no way obliged to to have sanctions against all.<br /><br />The more the EU acts like an enemy the more Putin from a strategic pov will have to do more structural damage to the EU economies.<br /><br />Countries like China and India (and a few others) will very likely start to hedge against some of the mainly financial sanctions. In case they for whatever reason become the next victum/target.<br />Effectively eroding both London's and NY's positionb as the 2 main financial centres probably for the benefit of the likes of S'Pore, Dubai and HKong.<br /><br />This is a fight that the West should never have sponsored they only can lose. Pick battles you will win not ones that you will surely lose and subsequently react as a spoilt 4 year old.<br />Starting a new coldwar for a garbage bin like the Ukraine how stupid can you get.<br />There double down like the West is doing now on a bust while you know the other side will call your bluff is the most stupid strategy imaginable. Riknoreply@blogger.com