tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post2509780316871622829..comments2024-01-16T08:40:53.682+00:00Comments on <a href="http://www.openeurope.org.uk">Open Europe</a>: Trust in the EU at an all time lowOEhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00556463374230498875noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-14322984755915324482012-08-07T14:24:39.171+01:002012-08-07T14:24:39.171+01:00Credibility can be had if words and actions match....Credibility can be had if words and actions match. The subsidiarity principle is a string of words and the actions taken by EU institutions do not appear to match those words.<br /><br />The EU institutions are supranational institutions supposedly dealing with supranational issues. The issues that EU institutions are seen to be dealing with are rarely supranational issues.<br /><br />Low confidence in institutions which do not do what they are supposed to isn't a big surprise.Jespernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-68651269662538659822012-07-31T18:31:45.637+01:002012-07-31T18:31:45.637+01:001. If you have a credibility problem you basically...1. If you have a credibility problem you basically need a 'face' that can convince you of the opposite. A guy like Obama before his election might have done the job for the EU. However the EU has flagposts Rompuy who doesnot appeal to anybody and the guy in the picture, who would be great as a posterboy for dodgy Southern undemocratic politics. But certainly not for the opposite, while the opposite is what the EU needs at the moment.<br /><br />2. Imho the point for an exit of a Southern country in general will be a combination of extra cuts and austerity fatigue. History shows the latter will hit in after a year or 2. Extra cuts you simply donot get a sustainable system with the cuts we have seen so far. You need a lot more. So might be different from country to country. While countries are in a primary deficit furthermore governments will do all to avoid a split. Anyway a Pexit (PIIGS country) is less likely to split the whole thing up than a Nexit (Northern country).<br /><br />3. In the North it is imho the combination of a further extension of the rescue package and direct influence on budgets combined with the 'normal' cuts hitting in. Voters see real cuts (likely hitting them personally with a direct cause in the EZ rescue). If Germany goes it is 100% sure end of EZ. France probably close to that. Holland also very likely big enough to kill the EZ. Finland might require something with it, but if they leave others might follow and the total might do the job. See furtehr under 4.<br /><br />We will see what comes first a 2 or a 3.<br /><br />4. Greece or Germany is no choice of course. The core should remain intact in order not to jeopardize the whole thing (likely a political goal). In this respect as said earlier Holland for instance could be at the end more important than say Spain. A core/founder and a payer. The chance that the EZ falls apart with a Dexit (Dutch) is imho considerably larger than when we would see a Sexit. Simply as it is in real terms probably the second , causing likely a Fiexit (Finland) and leaving Germany so on its own. It could even be that if France falls of the cliff (not unlikely) the Dutch become the second in rank. Power is simply quickly moving up North.Riknoreply@blogger.com