tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post4748389850680951724..comments2024-01-16T08:40:53.682+00:00Comments on <a href="http://www.openeurope.org.uk">Open Europe</a>: A vote on whether to leave the euro? What's next in Cyprus?OEhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00556463374230498875noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-69277088058973423752013-03-18T16:40:31.255+00:002013-03-18T16:40:31.255+00:00jon livesey -
"When Cypriot MPs vote on th...jon livesey - <br /><br /><br />"When Cypriot MPs vote on this issue, they won't be thinking about treaty obligations. They will be thinking about the consequences for their own voters."<br /><br />The two are interlinked, because in the (deliberate) absence of any EU treaty provision for a country to leave the euro any country which decided to do so would be exposing itself to potentially very severe punishment by other member states. Denis Coopernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-20101444947012148462013-03-17T22:48:51.622+00:002013-03-17T22:48:51.622+00:00When Cypriot MPs vote on this issue, they won'...When Cypriot MPs vote on this issue, they won't be thinking about treaty obligations. They will be thinking about the consequences for their own voters.<br /><br />Even after a bailout, Cyprus would still have to deal with the economics of sharing a currency with Germany.<br /><br />As a financial centre, that was just about do-able up to a couple of years ago, but now that has failed, and if Cyprus goes back to being a tourist and agriculture economy, it will be faced with the same impossible economic hurdles as Greece.jon liveseynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-73786169601697927922013-03-17T18:00:56.426+00:002013-03-17T18:00:56.426+00:00My guess - they'll make a lot of noise and the...My guess - they'll make a lot of noise and then cave in and vote to accept the bailout terms, either in their entirety at once or at least for now to the extent that the tax can be levied on deposits and then the banks can re-open.<br /><br />They won't vote to leave the euro because they already know that to do so would be a flagrant and massive breach of their EU treaty obligations and certain other member states might then insist upon very severe punishment, including but not limited to expulsion from the EU.<br /><br />Of course the EU treaties provide no legal mechanism for a member state to be expelled from the EU on any grounds whatsoever, but then the EU treaties also provide no legal mechanism for a member state to ever leave the euro once it has joined.<br /><br />So once the Cypriots had decided to do that it would no longer be a matter of treaty law but instead of ad hoc decisions with no legal base in the EU treaties, which decisions could later be legitimised by retrospective treaty changes.Denis Coopernoreply@blogger.com