tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post638858636818043305..comments2024-01-16T08:40:53.682+00:00Comments on <a href="http://www.openeurope.org.uk">Open Europe</a>: Germany and banking union: building the chinese wallOEhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00556463374230498875noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-84159067749901744112012-09-20T21:00:57.312+01:002012-09-20T21:00:57.312+01:00Forgot to mention. Some things simply donot go tog...Forgot to mention. Some things simply donot go together.<br /><br />1. ESM Spanish direct banking rescue. Conditional on banking union especially central oversight.<br />That is for the part that supposed to be going directly to the banks.<br /> Germany demanded this condition for direct bankingbail outs if I am not mistaken.<br /><br />2. Germany wants only the sytemic banks ECB regulated. To avoid troubles at home.<br />However the Spanish banking problems are mainly in the Cajas.<br />Which are if Germany gets its way not ECB regulated.<br /><br />Does this mean that no direct banking bail out can take place?<br />Or do I miss something?Riknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-21796352611856892142012-09-19T17:59:28.446+01:002012-09-19T17:59:28.446+01:00@Christina
Cameron simply like everybody else on ...@Christina<br /><br />Cameron simply like everybody else on this earth can only so long create his own reality. He clearly doesnot like to deal with unpleasant situations. But bad luck, he should not have become PM and certainly not in these challenging times.<br /><br />The good thing of this crisis for people like yourself is that Cameron cannot escape 'judgementday' for much longer. One way or another he will have to face the EU issue.<br /><br /><br /> The treaty has to be changed and not too far from now on several main issues. Which way exactly is still open but one way or another it will be a major change.<br /> Cameron cannot escape that. So he will have to face rebellion at home and likely his end as PM or face the EU issue (and stand up for the UK).<br /><br />UK?EU memebership is like the Euro this is a problem that doesnot go away and in a democratic country this means somewhere during that process the voter will have the decisionmaking power. Here by voting UKIP or Labour, or not go voting (and have the same result). Every mistake they make in Euro-land puts the issue higher on the UK public's agenda. Every silly plan by Brussels does the same. Barosso is your friend, well that is a bit too discusting of course, but in a way he is. He isnot only shooting in his own feet but also in Cameron's.<br /><br />And I see no way how this proces could be reversed. It will remain in the headlines, it will remain on the public's agenda and it will be a very important issue in next election.<br />As well as the treaty will have to be changed and if Cameron agrees with everything he is politically a dead man walking. So he will have to face reality and try to make the most of it or end up with no backer left (electoral, financial and political). Nobody is going to back up a guy that will have an almost guaranteed record loss in next elections and put possibly permanent competition (UKIP) on the market. Riknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-35143446718386116802012-09-19T15:34:03.759+01:002012-09-19T15:34:03.759+01:00Rik - Where do you hang out? Haven't you noti...Rik - Where do you hang out? Haven't you noticed that in respect of your "Also solution that will never get an ok from the UK (which is required as the treaty should be changed)." that Cameron will sign up to anything that is out in front of him if it postpones the day that he has to face the electorate in a general election or a referendum.<br /><br />christina Speightnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-63615773271734093532012-09-19T12:17:41.502+01:002012-09-19T12:17:41.502+01:00All fully predictable.
- You need proper oversigh...All fully predictable. <br />- You need proper oversight to make any bankingsector work. <br />- You need it relatively quickly for the ESM stuff.<br />- Effectively only the ECB has the manpower (but still considerably short) to do that. But would need national regulators to do most of the work.<br /><br />What we get is howver mainly political dogfights. <br />- Barosso coming with solutions that strengthens mainly the Commission's position.<br />- Also solution that will never get an ok from the UK (which is required as the treaty should be changed).<br />- Germany against it as it doesnot want especially its Landesbanks centraly regulated, because of the political influence and the garbage that is still in there.<br /><br />What we will see is months long horsetrading and ending it with a political compromise that basically will not do the job of proper supervising.<br /><br />You need a 2 layer structure to make the UK and Sweden go along with it with safeguards for common market for non EZ members.<br /><br />Within the EZ you need a proper central regulator.<br /><br />Who will need the local regulators to do the supervision. But with an ECB which can overrule them when necessary, like now in Spain (necessary but not possible).<br /><br />Anyway doubtful if that will work. ECB has become too politicised. It is now eg pumping up bust banks in the South (for political reasons) not for having a secure bankingsector (as it makes the sector more insecure this way). And with EU institutions having the reputation as they have re enforcing (or better the lack thereof when politically opportune) I am not very hopeful.<br />Riknoreply@blogger.com