tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post69582411514396877..comments2024-01-16T08:40:53.682+00:00Comments on <a href="http://www.openeurope.org.uk">Open Europe</a>: The Greek end-game?OEhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00556463374230498875noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-84053808574226075232012-02-06T22:05:49.603+00:002012-02-06T22:05:49.603+00:00there is a consensus between the Greek parties to ...there is a consensus between the Greek parties to accept the demand to cut 15,000 public sector jobs. A deal looks to be edging closer but is far from sealed yet. There is also set to be a general strike for the whole day tomorrow, meaning there is a good chance of massive protests and possiblysupermariohttp://supermario.cc/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-88589444594503184572012-02-06T16:20:38.716+00:002012-02-06T16:20:38.716+00:00Disorderly default can be seen in 2 ways:
-for the...Disorderly default can be seen in 2 ways:<br />-for the country imvolved (Greece);<br />-the contagion aspect.<br /><br />Re the latter there should now be measures in place when Greece and its banks go bust. Banks that are not yet prepared for that should go bust as they are horribly managed.<br /><br />For Greece possibly a structured default is simply impossible as they look totally incompetent to organise things properly. Furthermore if there is a proper firewall around it, it is difficult to imagine it will effect the worldeconomy. It is simply much too small for that.<br />It will be a bit nasty in the country, but it will give a clear sign to other high debt nations, that there is really a line you should not cross. I would expect negotiations with Hungary for instance to go considerably more smoothly.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-39821518293437736072012-02-06T11:50:56.897+00:002012-02-06T11:50:56.897+00:00@ Denis Cooper: The €14.4bn refers to the full amo...@ Denis Cooper: The €14.4bn refers to the full amount maturing. At the moment it's not clear if any or all of these bondholders will take part in the voluntary restructuring. Naturally, since they are so close to getting paid out in full they have a huge incentive not to, but political pressure could force some of them to (particularly large European banks). If some do take part then less than €14.4bn may be required but given the opacity of the negotiations it's impossible to say by exactly how much it could change.Open Europe blog teamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14476470353790515912noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-24711909287954296642012-02-06T11:06:47.536+00:002012-02-06T11:06:47.536+00:00For clarification, what would the €14.4 billion co...For clarification, what would the €14.4 billion cover?<br /><br />Full repayment on the maturing bonds according the terms on which they were issued, or reduced repayment according to whatever deal Greece strikes with bondholders?Denis Coopernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-17842087267294116392012-02-06T10:54:16.005+00:002012-02-06T10:54:16.005+00:00Thanks for the comments.
@TigerEyes: Indeed 13 Fe...Thanks for the comments.<br /><br />@TigerEyes: Indeed 13 Feb is the deadline for the absolute latest date at which the bond swap (the key part of the voluntary restructuring) can be offered to the market if it is to be completed in time (ahead of the 20 March debt repayment). That's why we suggest all the details of the austerity programme, the second Greek bailout and the bond swap plan need to be wrapped up early this week, so that the bond swap can actually begin on the 13 Feb. Even if the 13 Feb deadline is missed Greece wouldn't default until the 20 March.<br /><br />@ Denis Cooper: We'd agree that it is still hard to envisage the eurozone allowing Greece to succumb to a disorderly default. As you suggest it could well be that some short term agreement is created, although that would raise serious questions about the credibility of the eurozone's conditions which they set on the bailout funds.Open Europe blog teamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14476470353790515912noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-74041631550996203912012-02-06T10:51:11.227+00:002012-02-06T10:51:11.227+00:00It is somehow comforting to see that Greek politic...It is somehow comforting to see that Greek politicians are actually concerned about the hardships inflicted on the Greek people.Sheonanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-42744148787639269122012-02-06T10:22:43.268+00:002012-02-06T10:22:43.268+00:00It's hard to believe that the Greek government...It's hard to believe that the Greek government would be left without the €14.4 billion on March 20th.<br /><br />Even if there were still ongoing arguments over giving it the full €130 billion, or €145 billion, or whatever greater sum it had become by then, one way or another the €14.4 billion would be made available, "on account" as it were.Denis Coopernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-59777670587000499922012-02-06T09:54:05.513+00:002012-02-06T09:54:05.513+00:00I thought Feb 13 was the deadline, that's a we...I thought Feb 13 was the deadline, that's a week awayTigerEyeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05118631285248066065noreply@blogger.com