tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post7235590957350660060..comments2024-01-16T08:40:53.682+00:00Comments on <a href="http://www.openeurope.org.uk">Open Europe</a>: What will the next Conservative manifesto say on Europe?OEhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00556463374230498875noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-87103741308776334942012-03-10T10:57:46.412+00:002012-03-10T10:57:46.412+00:00A strategically chosen question on a referendum ba...A strategically chosen question on a referendum ballot paper can oftensuggest or determine the answer.<br />cf Alex Salmond,s suggested question for the Scots. "Do you agree that Scotland should be independent?". A heavily loaded question.<br /><br />Just print two diagrams<br />(a) The Union Jack<br />(b) The EU emblem - the star-spangled circle<br /><br />Then CHOOSEbritlagnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-57019327860430007472012-03-09T22:02:27.963+00:002012-03-09T22:02:27.963+00:00I don't see what a mandating referendum would ...I don't see what a mandating referendum would achieve. Effectively it would ask, 'Do you want the government to seek the best deal for Britain in EU negotiations?' Obviously the answer would be yes. At the same time, other member states would negotiate for their own interests, so we may not get what we want.<br /><br />Polling suggests that a three way question (in, out or renegotiate) would see a large majority for renegotiating. It is essential that we avoid this outcome, because it wouldn't resolve anything. It's unrealistic to expect that the other member states would suddenly agree to our demands, so nothing would change. We would remain in the EU but vaguely dissatisfied, with no mandate either to leave or to join the emerging federal Europe.Pete Chownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02341219285466768562noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-6634339266756004812012-03-09T22:00:52.649+00:002012-03-09T22:00:52.649+00:00I don't see what a mandating referendum would ...I don't see what a mandating referendum would achieve. Effectively it would ask, 'Do you want the government to seek the best deal for Britain in EU negotiations?' Obviously the answer would be yes. At the same time, other member states would negotiate for their own interests, so we may not get what we want.<br /><br />Polling suggests that a three way question (in, out or renegotiate) would see a large majority for renegotiating. It is essential that we avoid this outcome, because it wouldn't resolve anything. It's unrealistic to expect that the other member states would suddenly agree to our demands, so nothing would change. We would remain in the EU but vaguely dissatisfied, with no mandate either to leave or to join the emerging federal Europe.Pete Chownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02341219285466768562noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-2411979181670698472012-03-06T23:14:15.119+00:002012-03-06T23:14:15.119+00:00Does anyone seriously imagine that euroscpetics ar...Does anyone seriously imagine that euroscpetics are ever going to believe another Cameron promise on the EU? Come off it!<br /><br />The ONLY thing that will satisfy us would be an unequocal commitment to a referendum on leaving the EU, wth all MPs and Ministers free to vote either way - as in 1975.<br /><br />And equal funding and air-time for both sides - and the BBC politicaal and political news sections closed down for the duration of the campaign.<br /><br />And perhaps not even that will do - the better and more realistic option is to continue efforts to remove CameClegg from office.Idris Francishttp://www.fightbackwithfacts.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-76274278463644413802012-03-05T16:24:51.909+00:002012-03-05T16:24:51.909+00:00@rollo
I didnot say the free-trade part of the EU ...@rollo<br />I didnot say the free-trade part of the EU worked perfect. I only said that the free-trade part is most likely beneficial for the UK.<br /><br />Without the EU it would likely be considerably worse. Nearly all countries have low growth, high unemployment, are too expensive worldwide and are ruled by not to intelligent politicians with basically only short term interest. <br /><br />The example you gave is probably on a scale from 0 to 100 (100 being complete freetrade) pretty close to 0. It is not trading goods but construction, with something likely government related and with France (not the most open nation in the EU).Riknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-32359242166159514742012-03-05T12:23:53.987+00:002012-03-05T12:23:53.987+00:00Rik, there is no free trade into the EU,
We export...Rik, there is no free trade into the EU,<br />We export worldwide, but cannot into the EU. For example we had a £1,500,000 order for an aircraft hangar for FRance; after 6 months of failing to get permission, we and our French client had to abort the project. Protectionism is endemicRollohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18255460090580758354noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-70719456876229738872012-03-05T12:20:58.543+00:002012-03-05T12:20:58.543+00:00Does it make any difference what promises are made...Does it make any difference what promises are made in the manifesto? Lord Haw Haw lied last time and will again.Rollohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18255460090580758354noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-11403370878040482562012-03-05T12:19:30.005+00:002012-03-05T12:19:30.005+00:00Does it make any difference what is promised in th...Does it make any difference what is promised in the Manifesto? Lord Haw Haw lied last time and doubtless will next time.Rollohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18255460090580758354noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-79151565556879641362012-03-03T08:52:43.674+00:002012-03-03T08:52:43.674+00:001. There are 2 important factors re integration wi...1. There are 2 important factors re integration with Europe or de-integration with it.<br />a) Do you want further integration at all;<br />b) do you want it in the coming period and/or is it wise to take those steps.<br />2. Whatever your answer is on a), the answer on b)is you have to stay away from it for the coming years at least. Mainly for 2 reasons:<br />a)it is in a mess and all measures taken are mainly kicking the can and furthermore very expensive.<br />b) any solution is doubtful to work in practice (like the fiscal compact) and an experiment of which the outcome is highly uncertain. We see with eg Greece that there is no free Euro lunch.<br />You can be made to pay for other peoples mistakes and to make it worse those other people are countries like Greece and Italy which have proven themselves very unreliable partners.<br />So it is not only a technical experiment but also a membership experiment (being in one club with unreliable and unnatural partners).<br /><br />Another point is the EZ is likely to turn into a low/no growth zone. Its South is not much further than say China only with 10X higher wages. Before that is adressed decades will pass. Either build out sectors that are worldclass or get much cheaper (much lower wages (and other costs) and/or much lower taxes).<br />Its North also with a pricing problem will have to use it surplusses to finance the economic disaster the South is and reduce together with the aging effect overall growth to close to zero.<br />The problem likely will be adressed sometime but as we see in the PIIGS that will take ages. <br />3. So whatever your views are longer term on the shorter term it is plainly stupid to join that club.<br />While the advantages are marginal, being able to have your own monetary policy is very helpful for the UK as it is having a national financial legislation iso a mainly 'social democratic' one, that will likely make a large part of your financial sector move elsewhere.<br />4. What are the advantages of the EZ:<br />-trade;<br />-global player in international politics.<br />5. Re trade that is mainly:<br />-free trade;<br />-same standards.<br />6. To start with the last part that isnot really working properly.<br />The basic idea is good, but in practice unnecessarily rules are made up that simply make goods more expensive to produce, with no proper reason.<br />7. Free trade is the main advantage.<br />8. World player. Europe is nowhere near that. Having a clown for its foreign policy doesnot help, but indicates that there is a long way to go.<br />9. Anyway usually it is France, Germany and the UK who discuss things and act. And basically the UK is the strongest party in that and the only one that can do realistically something military abroad.<br />Anyway you need the US basically for everything and Belgium and Slovakia to name a few are hardly relevant.<br />10. Also from a political point of view the EZ/EU simply doesnot look stable. It politicians might be in agreement. But it is a decade or longer project; high on the (voters') agenda; populist parties rising in polls; huge conflicts of interest anyway; several elections during that process.<br />Which means that it is likely that something might happen. In which countries? When? We donot know yet, maybe even all goes well.<br />However in general a substantial chance of problems only from which angle is hard to predict.<br />11. Also from that respect further integration is not a good strategic move.<br />12. So in my view membership in the EU looks benificial at least for the free-trade part. For the rest a reneg is likely the most benificial. Get as much as possible un-economical and expensive measures out. Via which way is imho less relevant.<br />13. Looking at what the UK's population wants. It will be something like that as well.<br />As a member if it is possible, like a new Norway or Switzerland if it must.<br />14. In this respect getting closer ties with main players Russia and Turkey could be helpful. Especially re the standards part. Together with the UK these form enough markets to make some demands realistically in that respect.Riknoreply@blogger.com