tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post7489242861156409422..comments2024-01-16T08:40:53.682+00:00Comments on <a href="http://www.openeurope.org.uk">Open Europe</a>: Cyprus crisis shows Europe cannot perpetually move in one direction onlyOEhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00556463374230498875noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-60988217931878851142013-03-25T16:02:12.095+00:002013-03-25T16:02:12.095+00:00The way they'll get round the treaty is via th...The way they'll get round the treaty is via the obligatory "negotiations" that go with Article 20 , Those talks could end with an agreement for quitting combined with a rejoin mechanism to be operated simultaneously. <br /><br />I don't have a particularly devious but even I could work that out!christina speightnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-30107503216913180232013-03-25T13:28:15.125+00:002013-03-25T13:28:15.125+00:00What Germany and Holland in tandem with the EU hav...What Germany and Holland in tandem with the EU have done is to put a big question mark, a permanent doubt, over the safety of ANY investors' funds in ANY Bank in the EU or any EU Bank outside the EU.<br /><br />All this fuss to protect Merkel's election campaign.<br /><br />The whole of the EU is moving back in time - to pre-1945christhaihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05295016591612384314noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-79007219977838153702013-03-25T11:31:53.282+00:002013-03-25T11:31:53.282+00:00What I find most annoying is the language being us...What I find most annoying is the language being used to describe what is a very simple thing, THEFT. Whoever the depositors be they crooks, mafia or just rich people, you cannot make it seem less wrong by describing it as something it isn't, it isn't a "haircut" or a "tax" or a "levy" it's a confiscation, a removal by force against the will of the owner, in simpler language, a THEFT.<br />To talk about this having a direct effect on the PIIGs is an oversimplification, apart from Germany to some extent, it sends the message that money is not safe in ANY Eurozone bank, that it can be taken almost at will by Brussels unelected Maoist communist regime is not going to encourage investment. On the other hand the UK may benefit to be seen as safer.Rayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07132057803097163797noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-65645851779104953772013-03-25T02:30:52.500+00:002013-03-25T02:30:52.500+00:00The only important issue is obvious. Germany was ...The only important issue is obvious. Germany was willing to go to the brink of a break-up over E7bn.<br /><br />That kind of step-taking, unimaginable even a couple of years ago, shows how much has changed.<br /><br />The exact pedantic detail of this and that treaty are, as you indicate, irrelevant.jon liveseynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-81958713670024627382013-03-24T14:54:58.615+00:002013-03-24T14:54:58.615+00:00You miss a few important points:
1. Art 50 if I re...You miss a few important points:<br />1. Art 50 if I remember correctly gives the opportunity to start negotiations to leave the EU.<br />First of all this is not the EU (an issue you refer to). Second it is start and not directly unilaterally implement (starting with the CYP).<br />2. But most important if things were as you indicate Scotland and Catalunya could join from the start. Case is pretty similar.<br />Legally it looks clear: Cyprus has to leave the EU, possibly the neg term can be shortened. And would have to reapply.<br />3. Only way to do it different is via a political solution. Basically overriding the treaty. Which in itself is already doubtful (how about Ireland's referenda for instance).<br />But why would Spain agree when it opens the way for Catalunya (and a few others). Scotland/UK won't be that much of a problem.<br />4. However the UK might want something in return (maybe a few others like Sweden as well). Ireland possibly need a referendum. Etc.<br /><br />Another issue ECB can now buy bonds under strict conditions (bail out agreement in place). Which is something completely different from saving countries in the situation you describe, without a bail out in place.<br />The ECB programm is brought under 'transmission problems', not countries losing access to the market (what it would be). Would be a clear violation of the no-bail out clause (much worse than the ones previously done). Basically giving up all pretence of acting legally.<br />Also with a German CCourt case stil coming up.<br />No certainty here, it might happen it might not.<br /><br />Anyway the Cypriotic situation is probably worse than Greece's. At normal percentages approx 75% cuts no way via ELA banks can be financed. <br />While it will be only money out and nothing in. There is a potential huge financing problem. How will it be solved. <br />Longer term 3,4,5 year deleveraging. But capital controls for that period? Stretching collateral rules that much highly uncertain. <br />Exchange deposits in long term bonds (a PSI 2.0). <br /><br />Plan is based upon 1% growth, which is not going to happen. So imho we will see pretty soon Cyprus 2.0. Both country and banks.<br /><br />All under the assumption that now a 1.0 can be agreed upon (which is still a ?) Riknoreply@blogger.com