Le (premier) flic, c'est chic: Hollande picks Manuel Valls as new Prime Minister

As expected, François Hollande yesterday named Interior Minister Manuel Valls, France's 'top cop' (premier flic, hence the title of this blog), as new Prime Minister. The composition of the new cabinet is expected to be announced tomorrow.

For the moment, we know that the two ministers from the Green Party, Cécile Duflot and Pascal Canfin, are not interested in taking part in the new government. They explained in a communiqué that "the ideas supported by the new Prime Minister [Valls] for several years...do not constitute an appropriate response to the problems of the French". We also know that Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici is not in Athens for today's Eurogroup meeting - probably a sign that he is not going to be confirmed either.

It is fair to describe Manuel Valls as an 'atypical' French Socialist - and not just because of his firmness in dealing with certain crime and migration-related issues. The Barcelona-born new Prime Minister has upset quite a few fellow party members in the past. For example, Valls has come out in favour of scrapping France's 35-hour working week and raising retirement age to 65. 

He voted 'No' in an internal Socialist Party referendum on the European Constitution in December 2004 - but then aligned himself with the rest of the party and campaigned for a 'Yes' vote. He even suggested that the name 'Socialist Party' was "dated" and had to be changed. Perhaps not surprisingly, Valls only won 5.6% of votes when Socialist Party members picked their Presidential candidate in October 2011.

In other words, the choice of Manuel Valls as new Prime Minister could be seen as a sign of Hollande's renewed willingness to go ahead with at least some of the supply-side reforms recommended by the European Commission to put the French economy back on track. However, the road ahead for the new French cabinet looks far from easy, for at least two reasons:

• The reaction of the aile gauche (left wing) of the Socialist Party to the appointment of Manuel Valls has been cautious, to say the least. Rebellions in parliament on future economic reforms cannot be ruled out.
• The Socialist Party's majority in the Assemblée Nationale (the lower house of the French parliament) has been shrinking following a number of by-elections, and will be down to only one seat - 290 of a total 577 - once outgoing minister Cécile Duflot of the Green Party claims her seat back. This risks making it more complicated for the new government to pass meaningful economic reforms - although Valls could try and muster case-by-case alliances with some of the smaller centrist parties.   

The first test for Valls and his cabinet will be to push through the so-called 'responsibility pact' - a plan to cut taxes on businesses in return for more hiring announced by Hollande in his New Year's address, and the details of which are due to be unveiled later this month.

We will be monitoring the situation in France closely. For now, one last interesting fact for football geeks (of which there are a few in the Open Europe office): Catalan composer Manuel Valls i Gorina, a cousin of the new French Prime Minister's father, is the author of the official anthem of FC Barcelona. And no, this is not an April's Fool day hoax.

Hollande expected to announce cabinet reshuffle after local election 'punishment'

If you want to get a sense of how badly the latest French local elections went for President François Hollande, have a look at today's front page of left-leaning French daily Libération:

 

The headline means 'The punishment', and it summarises the outcome of the local vote pretty well. According to data from the French Interior Ministry, the centre-right (that is, the opposition UMP and its allies) gained 139 towns with more than 10,000 inhabitants compared to the 2008 local elections. The centre-left (Hollande's Socialist Party and its allies) lost 160. The fact that the Socialist Party managed to retain Paris - where Anne Hidalgo was elected as the city's first female mayor - cannot compensate for what was an unequivocal defeat nationwide.

Marine Le Pen's anti-EU Front National took control of eleven towns - in addition to Hénin-Beaumont, where the party won an outright victory in the first round. Though not impressive in absolute terms (see this blog post from last week for some more background information), the score is nonetheless politically significant. It shows how French voters increasingly see Front National not just as a mere 'protest party', but as a credible alternative for power - albeit so far only at the local level and in a very limited number of towns.

Meanwhile, the immediate consequence of yesterday's local election fiasco is that Hollande is expected to announce a cabinet reshuffle any moment. The French President has just come out of a two-hour meeting with Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault, whose departure looks very likely, judging by the headlines in the French press over the past few days.

Interior Minister Manuel Valls, who enjoys a pretty high approval rating compared to his fellow cabinet members (in part thanks to his tough stance on certain crime and migration issues), is broadly seen as the favourite to replace Ayrault as Prime Minister. Laurent Fabius, currently serving as Foreign Minister, is another name being mentioned by the French media. 

However, in light of the latest macroeconomic indicators, the impression remains that moving a few ministers around will not be enough to restore the French government's credibility vis-à-vis the electorate - unless the policies also change and France makes some real progress in pushing ahead with the reforms needed to restore its competitiveness within the eurozone.

Dieu save the baguette!

Many of you have probably already seen it, but this is the (quite clever) front cover the Economist has chosen to present its special report on France:

You decide what annoyed the French government the most:

a) 'Les Anglo-Saxons' making fun of France's economic grandeur with their unpleasant sense of humour;
b) The irreverent picture of a bunch of France's beloved baguettes about to explode;
c) The content of the report.

One thing is certain: the Economist has hardly made any new friends in Paris. Here are some reactions from the French government:

French Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault (from Berlin yesterday)

"I can tell you that France is not at all impressed by the excess aimed at selling [more] copies."

French Industry Minister Arnaud Montebourg (on French radio Europe 1 this morning)

"Honestly, the Economist has never distinguished itself by its sense of self-restraint. It's the Charlie Hebdo [a well-known French satirical weekly] of the City."

Najat Vallaut-Belkacem (French Women's Rights Minister and government spokeswoman)

"[The Economist] should update its software...We borrow money at historically low rates, not to say negative. We have gained this credibility, and it is acknowledged by the markets."

We expect more reactions to come - and we may also elaborate a bit more on the future of the French economy in the eurozone at some point. For the moment, though, the idea that France should start to be looked at as a potential reason for concern does not sound completely far-fetched.