Showdown between France and Commission set to test EU’s budget rules

It has been widely reported over the weekend that the European Commission (EC) is seriously considering rejecting France’s new budget proposal which will see it run a deficit of 4.3% next year rather than the EC target of 3%.

As the graph above shows, France has strayed significantly from the path originally agreed with the EC, even after it requested and was granted additional time to meet its deficit targets just last year.

Importantly, this is the first time a country has flagrantly flouted the budget rules. Other countries have missed their targets or asked for extensions, but with the presumption of good faith and serious efforts being made to meet said targets. However, with its latest budget France has rejected the previously agreed cuts (worth 0.8% of GDP) and offered just 0.2% of GDP in savings. In other words it has flat out chosen to ignore the rules.

This may seem like semantics but it puts the EC and the EU more broadly in a tough position. With much of peripheral Europe failing to meet the fiscal rules agreed under the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP), the Fiscal compact and the European Semester, many have already been questioning the effectiveness of these tools. Ultimately, the EC risks replaying one of the key features of the previous crisis – letting a big country break the SGP and then being unable to effectively enforce it for other countries, helping to facilitate the large build-up of sovereign debt.

This is therefore a key test of the viability of the new rules and whether this time will really be any different. Combined with the renewed bank stress tests and bail-in rules, the coming months are an important testing ground for the new financial architecture which the Eurozone has put in place.

Sadly, as Reuters highlights, another fudge looks to be on the cards. While the EC will probably reprimand France to the fullest extent before getting to outright fines, it will also work up a new looser programme which gives it more time. This helps all sides save face and avoids the risk of further weakening French President Francois Hollande to the benefit of the Front Nationale (something which the EU wants to avoid).

As for what happens now, the EC will provide a verdict on the budget by the end of the month in what will be one of the last acts of the Barroso Commission. This is of course all complicated by the hand-over of the EC and the wrangling over who will actually be in charge of enforcing the budget agreements. When all is said and done another muddle through is likely, but with the Eurozone facing economic stagnation investors may be less than convinced by such moves.

Is Merkel lining up Lagarde as an alternative to Juncker?

There is an interesting report from Reuters this evening. According to unnamed sources, during a private meeting, German Chancellor Angela Merkel asked French President Francois Hollande whether he would be willing to back IMF Chief Christine Lagarde as the new Commission President.

As Alex Barker from the FT has pointed out, this may refer to a conversation taking place before the European elections, which would, of course, make the story far less interesting. 

Lagarde’s name has been bandied around before but has always been considered an outsider. 

If there's truth in the report it would obviously be very good for the UK and David Cameron, who is a big fan of Lagarde (along with many others). Number 10 will also be hoping that this is Merkel’s first action to try to move away from Jean-Claude Juncker. While she has never been entirely keen on him, she has come under severe domestic pressure. Having a clear, credible alternative ready, such as Lagarde, would certainly help. That said, Merkel's spokesman has already come out to reject the report and reaffirm support for Juncker.

In any case, there remain a number of hurdles to her becoming the new Commission President over the current front-runner Juncker:

• It’s not clear yet if she wants the job. Sources suggest she has not ruled it out but her position as Head of the IMF remains an illustrious one and would be hard to walk away from.

• As Reuters notes, Hollande did not give a clear answer on whether he would back Lagarde. It would be a big ask given that she is from the opposition UMP party and Hollande could well fear it would make him look weak. If he accepted her it would be giving up the chance to appoint his own French commissioner who would likely still have a high level job within the new Commission. On the other hand, rejecting the opportunity to have a French head of the Commission may not play well with the French public.

• Europe will be loath to lose the IMF’s top job and may not retain it. After the Dominique Strauss-Kahn incident there was a sizeable fight over whether Europe should retain the position, with emerging markets stressing that the whole management system of the IMF is outdated given their increased size and relevance for the global economy. If Europe lost control at the top of the IMF it might find it hard to stop a sizeable overhaul of the whole institution, which has been coming for some time. It would also be the second time in recent history that France has walked away from the IMF’s top job – not a tag any country wants to wear.

• The European Parliament (EP) could still block her and may well do given its fierce desire to see the Spitzenkandidaten process upheld. On the other hand, they have also pushed for diversity and as a renowned female European politician, and a strong candidate, it could be difficult for the EP to vote her down.

It may also be questioned whether she will get support within the European Council. Those who support Juncker could still put together a blocking-minority but this would be difficult if she had support of most of the large countries.

Therefore, Lagarde remains a case of wishful thinking at the moment. But, as we've said before, this is still anyone's race so never say never...

The anti-EU vote: Spot the difference

Question: What's the difference between these two opinion polls for this month's European elections?

Answer: Ok, the percentages in the bottom graph are slightly higher, but there is a striking similarity.

The top graph plots the front runners in the French European elections: Marine Le Pen's Front National, the centre-right opposition UMP, and Francois Hollande's governing Parti Socialiste.

Meanwhile, the bottom graph plots the latest European election poll results for UKIP, Labour and the Conservatives.

There is always a tendency to see the anti-EU/government/establishment phenomenon as unique to one's own country. These European elections are likely to prove otherwise.

Anglo-German partnership on EU reform could prove crucial at the negotiating table

Die Welt's Economic Editor Tobias Kaiser has an opinion piece in today's paper entitled entitled “Stay with us, Brits”, in which he argues that:

“Berlin needs London as a partner in the fight for fiscal reason [in the EU].” 

Kaiser highlights that:

“Berlin and London have to put their ideas of Europe against the French coined version of European etatism... The openness of the European economy has to be guaranteed and the protectionist regulations and national rules – which still prevent the development of a genuinely free exchange of goods, people, and ideas within Europe – have to be dismantled.”

This is an argument we have been making for a while. In 2012, following the election of Francois Hollande as French President, Open Europe Director Mats Persson argued that:

"Hollande simply rubs the Germans up the wrong way. His spending rhetoric is an outright challenge to German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s vision of a euro firmly grounded in Prussian budget discipline."

"Therefore, though it won’t be easy, the scope for a new bargain between London and Berlin – based on Britain needing new terms of EU engagement if it is to remain inside, and Germany needing the UK’s quiet support for a more economically sustainable euro – is possibly greater than ever."

While Hollande's push against austerity has waned, the process of Anglo-German cooperation has gained pace - exemplified by the recent joint op-ed in the FT where George Osborne and Wolfgang Schäuble agreed on the need for safeguards for the single market in the face of tighter political and economic integration in the eurozone.

Kaiser's call for greater economic openness within the EU also echoes the argument in favour of greater services liberalisation by Die Zeit's London correspondent John F. Jungclausen, who cited Open Europe's report which found that removing barriers to cross-border services trade could alone produce a permanent increase to EU-wide GDP of up to 2.3% or €294bn.

It's good to see the process beginning to bear fruit and gain wider traction in the German media, particularly on the specific areas where reform is necessary. As we pointed out ahead of Chancellor Merkel's recent visit to the UK, there is scope for a wide ranging 'Anglo-German bargain' in areas such as EU migrants' access to benefits, greater powers for national parliaments, and the devolution of some EU back to the national or local level. According to a recent Open Europe/YouGov poll, an EU reform agenda built on these pillars would enjoy significant public support in both countries.

With all this in mind, now would seem the perfect time for the UK government to begin road-testing specific reforms in Germany and other countries. 

A new eurozone economic policy "made in France"?

The appointment of Arnaud Montebourg - an outspoken critic of German and EU-mandated austerity and pro-competitivenesses policies - as the new French Economy Minister has not gone down well in Germany.

In a feature piece headlined, "He insults Germany and is promoted", Die Welt claims that "his appointment is controversial – he is known for his failures". The paper goes on to argue:

"He sees himself as the legitimate successor of Jean-Baptiste Colbert, the finance minister of the legendary French Sun King Louis XIV... In his previous post of Minister for Re-industrialisation, he above all others terrified foreign investors with class warfare slogans, and now has acquired even more powers in the government of President Francois Hollande".

The paper also claims that Montebourg secured his new position by threatening Hollande that, unless given the Economic Ministry, he would resign from the government - a move which would have been hugely destabilising given his position as a figurehead on the left of the Socialist Party. The paper has a round-up of some of Montebourg's more memorable quotes:

On globalisation, free trade and protectionism:

“The EU is the only one that does not protect itself against unfair competition. We have become the idiots of the global village...For 30 years, consumers have made the law in Europe and the result has been a disaster. Me, I defend the producers."

On the European Commission's application of competition and state aid laws:

"[These people] exercise law in the manner of the taliban, [they are] fundamentalists who apply the [legislative] texts blindly to the detriment of European interests".

On Angela Merkel and Germany's actions during the eurozone crisis (back when the French Socialist Party was still in opposition):

"The issue of German nationalism is resurfacing through the policy à la Bismarck [of Angela Merkel]."

And:

"Mrs Merkel is killing the euro, and it would be time to show the failure of the German model, rather than singing its praises."

Even allowing for the fact that Montebourg is playing to the gallery a fair bit, and that the new government's economic policy will remain more pragmatic overall, it is clear why his appointment will raise concerns in Berlin and beyond about France's already fragile economic situation. In the meantime, we're looking forward to new additions to his already impressive repertoire of memorable quotes.

How does the EU solve a problem like the Ukraine?

Update 13:45 - According to Antonio Delgado, Spanish Public Radio's EU correspondent, "diplomatic sources" have indicated that the UK, the Netherlands, Italy, Spain and Bulgaria are all "not keen" on sanctions, although the Italian Foreign Ministry issued a statement claiming that “In the event of the continuation of violence, we don’t rule out resorting to exceptional restrictive measures”.

Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso on the other hand is optimistic:

Following developments in #Ukraine w/ shock & utter dismay. We expect targeted measures agreed by our #EU MS urgently http://t.co/nsy4JsSKhA
— José Manuel Barroso (@BarrosoEU) February 19, 2014

*****Original Post*****

The escalation in violence in Kiev yesterday and overnight poses a huge challenge to the EU. What, exactly, can it do here to prevent continuing civil disorder on its doorstep?

As ever when it comes to EU foreign policy, the first hurdle is to actually secure an agreement among 28 member states which is difficult in itself. As we've said on a number of occasions, Catherine Ashton's European External Action Service cannot magically replace 28 foreign policy positions - this has been proved time and again over Israel/Palestine, Libya, Syria etc. When it comes to the Ukraine, these differences have been apparent in how to deal with Russia in the first place, how hard it was to push for the EU-Ukraine trade agreement, then over how to deal with the anti-government protests, and now it looks likely they will appear in whether to impose sanctions. Here is a round-up of where the key EU countries stand on potential sanctions:

UK - Europe Minister David Lidington has condemned the violence and urged "all parties to return to the path of compromise and genuine negotiation" - no explicit reference to sanctions.

Poland - As the biggest supporter of Ukraine's eventual integration into the EU, Poland has consistently taken a hard stance on the issue. Speaking in the Polish parliament this morning, Prime Minister Donald Tusk called for targeted sanctions against those individuals "responsible for the Ukraine's misfortune". However, he conceded these tended to have limited effectiveness, but argued they sent a "moral" signal. He also slammed Russian pressure and warned that a civil war was possible. In a rare outbreak of political unity, the sanctions were also backed by the opposition Law and Justice party.

Germany - The German government (and the SPD in particular) has traditionally been very cautious when dealing with Russia so as not to alienate Moscow unnecessarily. For this reason they had opposed sanctions - supported by many in the European Parliament - but Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier yesterday noted that personal sanctions will now "surely be considered". Chancellor Merkel will discuss the situation with President Hollande later today.

France - French President Francois Hollande said that he “agreed with [Polish PM] Tusk on the need for swift European sanctions, targeted at the main responsible for these acts.”

Italy – It is unclear whether Rome's position will change following the recent developments and/or the appointment of Renzi's new cabinet but the existing position was to oppose sanctions, with Foreign Minister Emma Bonino arguing a couple of weeks ago that "it has always been easy to announce [sanctions], but it has never been easy to apply them in a coordinated fashion. To me, this doesn't seem the way to go.”

Sweden - Another strong supporter of Ukraine's EU ambitions and of the anti-government protectors, Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bild is as expected shouting the loudest, accusing Ukraine's President Yanukovych of "having blood on his hands".

Of course agreeing on a course of action is one thing - implementing it is another and the EU simply struggles to back up its rhetoric with 'hard power' due to the nature of the EU itself. The key will be how Putin responds if the situation continues to get out of hand - how will the EU respond if Moscow intervenes more directly? As the 2008 Georgian crisis showed - when the EU initially tried to present a common front - the Russians are very adept at exploiting any divisions and they still wield substantial leverage due to the reliance of many EU members on their energy resources.

Notwithstanding the need for a political solution to Ukraine's internal problems, there is surely a wider need for the EU and Russia to come to a sensible compromise over Ukraine's future - as the map below shows, geopolitically, the Ukraine is trapped between two large political and economic blocs (the map shows the respective customs union and potential members), and any closer political and economic integration of the Ukraine into the EU triggers Russia's age-old fears about 'encirclement'.

Rien à voir ici? Hollande says treaty change is "not the priority" for France, but...

David Cameron and François Hollande have just held their joint press conference following the Anglo-French defence summit in Oxfordshire. Predictably, though, most of the questions focused instead on Cameron's EU renegotiation strategy and the prospects of it being achieved by changes to the EU treaties.

Here's what stood out for us:

• Significantly, Cameron explicitly said that renegotiation of the UK's EU membership "will involve elements of treaty change". This is quite a rare admission, and is the most explicit he's been so far on the need to change the EU treaties. As The Times's Sam Coates flagged up, the Prime Minister has been categorical about EU treaty change once before, speaking of "the treaty change that I’ll be putting in place before the referendum", on the Andrew Marr Show earlier this year - although the question was specifically on EU migrants' access to benefits. 

• The Prime Minister also reiterated that "the eurozone needs change...It needs greater co-ordination, it needs those elements that make a single currency succeed. That's why in recent years we've already seen treaty changes."

• Hollande said that "France wants more coordination and integration in the eurozone", but treaty change "is not the priority" for the time being. Though this is what the headlines are likely to focus on, this is nothing new, nor surprising. It's been the French position for ages. However, Hollande didn't rule treaty change out. He said it wasn't "urgent" or "the priority". As we have argued from the beginning (see here, for instance), the timetable remains a weakness in Cameron's plan - not least because discussions on changing the EU treaties can drag on for years and the eurozone remains on an uncertain development path.

• The French President also stressed that major treaty changes (he mentioned the Maastricht Treaty as an example) would have to be put to a referendum in France - while for smaller ones parliamentary approval would be enough.

A couple of points are worth making. It is no secret that one of the reasons France is wary of changing the EU treaties is that referenda are not exactly easy to win (think of the one on the EU Constitution in 2005, but also the one on the Maastricht Treaty, both of which split the country and the political establishment).

This is true assuming that the new Treaty gives the EU more powers. But this is not what Cameron is aiming for. So it is not entirely clear that any UK-led changes would necessarily have to be put to a vote in France.

That said, though, the common wisdom on this point is that an EU treaty change would be part of a 'grand bargain' to strengthen economic coordination in the eurozone - meaning that the UK's new relationship with the EU would be negotiated alongside greater central controls in the euro area. This type of treaty change could clearly trigger a referendum in France (and elsewhere).

The question remains open. With Germany likely to keep pushing for an EU treaty change to complete the overhaul of the eurozone structures, we still think Hollande may have to face the issue sooner rather than later - with the question being what deal Berlin can broker.

And yet again, that brings us back to Angela Merkel.

New OE/OEB poll: Significant support among German voters to slim down EU

There is no doubt that Germany is strongly wedded to the idea of ‘more Europe’ -- at least rhetorically. But when it is boiled down specific EU policies, as the new Open Europe, Open Europe Berlin and YouGov Deutschland poll shows, there is significant support amongst German voters to slim down the EU.

Key findings of our poll illustrate that the European Commission and the European Parliament are the least trusted of the 13 different national and European institutions tested. Only 33% and 30% of German voters trust the EP and EC respectively.

On the other hand, the highest ranking institution is the German Constitutional Court (trusted by a whopping 71% of Germans). Interestingly for Brussels, this is of course, the same Court which has been throwing up barriers to further eurozone integration based on its interpretation of the German Basic Law and the EU Treaties.

There is also significant support among German voters to devolve powers from the EU back to the member states: 50% agree that it’s a good idea, only 26% don’t. Similarly, 41% think that the EU should have less powers, 36% are content with the status quo – and only 23% think the EU should have more powers.

Moreover, a majority of Germans want less Brussels involvement in at least eight policy areas:

When it comes to the question of Britain in the EU, the Germans overwhelmingly want to keep Britain inside.  63% think the UK and Germany could be strong allies in reforming the EU.

  
France is by-and-far still seen as Germany’s most important ally in Europe. It is ranked first by 61% of respondents, being followed by Britain on 19%. However, David Cameron inspires more trust among Germans (ranked first by 30% of respondents) than French President Francois Hollande (ranked first by 26% of respondents.)

Germany is a conflicted country when it comes to Europe – while it is ‘pro Europe’ in temperament,  when it comes to the actual policies, German support for 'more Europe' is heavily caveated.