Open Europe Chairman Lord Leach: We can't do nothing. Only #EUReform will work

Open Europe Chairman Lord Leach of Fairford has an article in today's Times, trailing this week's unprecedented Open Europe-Fresh Start Project pan-European Conference on #EUReform. He argues,

There will be no escaping the European question this year. The European Parliament elections in May will be followed by the selection of a new Commission, the EU’s executive arm and spiritual home for federal-minded officials. This is also the year when the Prime Minister will set out his negotiating strategy for Europe ahead of next year’s general election and the promised referendum in 2017.

Voters across the Continent will be assured by EU leaders that the euro crisis is over. It isn’t. A financial and currency crisis has simply morphed into a social and economic crisis, with youth unemployment running at 50 per cent in parts of Southern Europe. The European elections will return sceptical parties in record numbers.

These flashing warning lights illustrate voters’ deepening frustration with the status quo. An out-of-touch Brussels political elite will no doubt try to frame the debate about Europe’s future as a struggle between moderate idealists who see the EU as an end in itself, a staging post on the journey to a United States of Europe, and dangerous “extremists” who oppose it lock, stock and barrel.

That would be a grave mistake. Without radical change, the legitimacy of the EU will continue to decline in every member state. And if there is a referendum in Britain it will be so close as to leave the issue undecided and half the country feeling resentful and disenfranchised.

However, here’s the good news: as economic and democratic realities mount, the momentum for reform is growing. National politicians increasingly sense that they risk ending up on the wrong side of history if they settle for the “do nothing” option. In an unambiguous sign of the changing mood, Open Europe and the Fresh Start Project of UK MPs are this week hosting a conference for more than 250 leading politicians and opinion-formers from all 28 EU member states. Though we won’t agree on everything, we have a common mission: reform.

For years Europhiles have used conferences to set the agenda, talking to themselves about themselves. No more. For the first time, reformers are joining forces in large numbers to call for sweeping change.

This event is about substance. Beyond the simplistic ideological divide between those who want a superstate and those who want break-up, what is the most effective way to organise Europe, practically, democratically and economically?

Over two days the focus will be on competitiveness and democracy, a testing-ground for fleshing out which concrete EU reforms the Prime Minister can achieve ahead of the 2017 referendum. Our European friends will have constructive ideas of their own.

Countless statistics show how the EU is losing out in the global race. Yet it is not hard to see how to make Europe work for prosperity, rather than against it. A liberalised market, not least in services, with each country free to make its own successes and mistakes, would provide fresh competitive edge. Returning labour market laws to the domestic shop floor, dropping the centralised European management of farm subsidies and national energy policies, ending the grossly inefficient recycling of regeneration subsidies through Brussels and cutting needless regulation across the board — all these would immediately help growth and jobs.

Above all we need a new constitutional settlement to square national democracy with European co-operation. That means facing the existential question that was posed when the euro was created: what is the common cause that defines the EU? Is it the single currency, and its ideological parent “ever closer union”? Or the Single Market?

If the EU becomes a political extension of the euro, sooner or later the UK electorate will vote to leave. Yet there has been acknowledgement — from Berlin to Rome — that it is in no one’s interest to convert countries into first and second-class members, still less to sleepwalk into the exit of one of Europe’s main powers. However, in what will be a long battle, the UK needs allies. They will be worth listening to.

New OE/OEB poll: Significant support among German voters to slim down EU

There is no doubt that Germany is strongly wedded to the idea of ‘more Europe’ -- at least rhetorically. But when it is boiled down specific EU policies, as the new Open Europe, Open Europe Berlin and YouGov Deutschland poll shows, there is significant support amongst German voters to slim down the EU.

Key findings of our poll illustrate that the European Commission and the European Parliament are the least trusted of the 13 different national and European institutions tested. Only 33% and 30% of German voters trust the EP and EC respectively.

On the other hand, the highest ranking institution is the German Constitutional Court (trusted by a whopping 71% of Germans). Interestingly for Brussels, this is of course, the same Court which has been throwing up barriers to further eurozone integration based on its interpretation of the German Basic Law and the EU Treaties.

There is also significant support among German voters to devolve powers from the EU back to the member states: 50% agree that it’s a good idea, only 26% don’t. Similarly, 41% think that the EU should have less powers, 36% are content with the status quo – and only 23% think the EU should have more powers.

Moreover, a majority of Germans want less Brussels involvement in at least eight policy areas:

When it comes to the question of Britain in the EU, the Germans overwhelmingly want to keep Britain inside.  63% think the UK and Germany could be strong allies in reforming the EU.

  
France is by-and-far still seen as Germany’s most important ally in Europe. It is ranked first by 61% of respondents, being followed by Britain on 19%. However, David Cameron inspires more trust among Germans (ranked first by 30% of respondents) than French President Francois Hollande (ranked first by 26% of respondents.)

Germany is a conflicted country when it comes to Europe – while it is ‘pro Europe’ in temperament,  when it comes to the actual policies, German support for 'more Europe' is heavily caveated.

Open Europe in 2012: a short summary of our achievements and a review of our eurozone predictions

2012 has been an important and very successful year for Open Europe, with Prospect Magazine judging us “International Affairs” think-tank of the year in recognition of our research and analysis’ increasing influence in the UK, Europe and beyond. This year, many of Open Europe’s research publications and ideas have had a direct influence on policy and decision making regarding the UK’s relationship with the EU.

We also hosted prominent figures from the world of politics, economics and business in our 2012 events programme, discussing a range of topics from the UK’s future role in Europe, Anglo-German relations to the finer points of the eurozone crisis. Perhaps the icing on the cake, in October this year, was the launch of a new independent partner organisation in Germany, Open Europe Berlin gGmbh.

To read the full review of our year, click here. Below we would like to focus on some of the predictions we made about the eurozone over the last 12 months (always a dangerous undertaking). Here is how we fared in predicting some of the key developments:

The bailouts for the Spanish banking sector and Spanish regions: In April, Open Europe’s Head of Economic Research Raoul Ruparel argued that Spanish “banks may be forced to tap the eurozone bailout fund” and highlighted that the build-up of debt by Spain’s regions would mean that they too could require bailouts. In June, Spain announced that it would request €100bn from the eurozone’s bailout funds to recapitalise its banks, while in July, several Spanish regions requested bailouts from the state which sent sovereign borrowing costs to record highs.

Second Greek bailout falling short...: In March, Open Europe predicted that, coming in at just 2% of GDP, the debt write-down of Greek debt under the country’s second bailout would be “far too small to allow Greece any chance of recovery”, with further assistance required in the future. In July, it became apparent that the second bailout had failed and in October, Greece received a two-year extension to its bailout programme, duly confirmed in late November. 

...but with Greece staying in the euro for now: While others put the risk of Greece imminently leaving the euro at 80%, Open Europe’s Mats Persson argued in January 2012 that “I doubt eurozone leaders will have the nerve to force Greece out this year.” 

Credit rating of France and eurozone bailout funds downgraded: In January, we predicted that “France could well be downgraded at least one notch…this would [also] hit the creditworthiness of the euro bailout funds”. On January 16, S&P downgraded France’s triple A rating, with Moody’s following suit on November 19, and on November 30 it also downgraded the eurozone’s two bailout funds.

LTRO would run out quickly: In December 2011, in a briefing looking at the potential impact of the ECB’s programme bank liquidly provision (LTRO), Open Europe’s Raoul Ruparel argued that while it may be welcome in the short-term, “hopes, and plans, that this funding will lead to a boost in purchases of sovereign debt look misguided.” By the summer of 2012, both Spain and Italy were seeing their funding costs rise quickly, and eventually the ECB would have to take additional action. 

Monti would struggle to fundamentally reform Italy’s labour market: In March, Open Europe’s Vincenzo Scarpetta warned of the risk that Mario Monti’s lack of a popular mandate could undermine his efforts to reform Italy’s labour market. With Monti set to step down in the coming months, the OECD has recently highlighted that Italy has undertaken limited labour market reforms, with its labour costs now amongst the highest in the eurozone. 

So not a bad record for 2012, click here to check out our predictions for 2013.

Britain has the perfect chance to work out how to loosen its ties with Brussels

Open Europe Chairman Lord Leach of Fairford has an op-ed in today's Times, where he argues,

If Britain pulls out of the EU, that will be as much due to our condescending Eurozealots, who have called every turn wrong for 30 years, as to UKIP. Both alike tell us that radical change in the European structure is out of the question.

Moderate sceptics, who want to stay in the EU but might want “out” if the Government can’t negotiate a changed relationship, are the majority of the electorate, but their voice is too seldom heard. The BBC neglects them, presumably calculating that pitting Nigel Farage against Denis MacShane does more for its audience ratings than analysis of the most important issue facing the country.

Circumstances, however, have conspired to deliver our fate to the moderates. While the eurozone faces a polarised choice between economic union or break-up, Britain has three options: “more Europe”, exit or renegotiate. And since “more Europe” has become unthinkable, the effective option is exit or reform. In a word, the Europhiles have lost. The sceptics, however, have not yet won. For this, the coalition is to blame for its failure to articulate a constructive vision of a Europe that would meet the aims both of the integrationist countries and of those that put self-determination first.

Whether Britain withdraws or remains, it will have to negotiate terms with an EU that has lost its way after the triumphs of its first 50 years, when tariffs were cut, enemies reconciled and a haven given to victims of dictatorships. Its icon, the euro, has awakened resentments unknown since the Second World War. Unemployment in the South is at 1930s levels, with nothing but depression and endless financial chicanery in sight. The region has slid inexorably down the global economic league tables.

Brussels treats the catastrophe predictably as a pretext for “more Europe”, but Germany’s reaction, caught between the appeal of European solidarity and reluctance to be the milch cow for Mediterranean indiscipline, has been cautious and ambivalent. There is nothing in Berlin’s response to suggest a closed mind to a new deal with the countries outside the eurozone. They know that a British government that signed up to deeper economic integration wouldn’t last a week. They also read the polls, showing UKIP neck-and-neck with the Lib Dems. It is not in Germany’s interest to drive Britain to withdraw, depriving the EU of its financial centre, its principal advocate of democracy and free trade, and one of its two foremost military powers, not to mention its highly lucrative market.

Germany is ripe for change. After two thirds of a century’s atonement, it no longer has to disprove a wish for domination or to pretend that without uniformity there can be no peace in Europe. It can admit that the proudest European heritage - German music, Italian painting, French civilisation, English literature - is utterly removed from the integrationist obsessions of the European political class. Liberated from guilt, Germany begins to recognise again democracy’s ability to reconcile voters to political defeat, to repeal unworkable laws and dismiss bad leaders, and to tackle difficulties with the grain of national traditions, institutions and instincts, not by the imposition of one-size-fits-all European-level solutions.

The shape of a new Europe therefore writes its own script - a neighbourly alliance, partly federal, partly by treaty between independent states, in which those who want to share a currency and economic sovereignty and those who just want co-operation would be equally welcome. Only trade, the bedrock of the original Common Market, would be universal.

In truth, it is not the eurozone that is the “core” of Europe - it is the single market. In the new, flexible model for EU integration, the UK would remain a full member of the customs union and single market and maintain its vote on making Europe’s trading rules. But it could limit Brussels’ involvement in areas such as policing and crime, fisheries, farming, employment law and regional policy. 

The EU’s institutions would be adapted so as not to discriminate against countries who have chosen to be less integrated. Likewise, the UK would not vote on EU laws that did not apply to itself. The presumption of travel towards a common destiny would cease to apply, since all forms of EU membership would be equally legitimate. 

 Instead of institutional tinkering and going round in circles on the euro, national democracies would start working out how to succeed in the globally networked modern world. Each country would find its own way back to prosperity. That, after all, was how Europe became rich and civilised in the first place. Relieved from unwanted legislation and desperate sacrifices for the euro, we would rediscover the amity of neighbours. 

We might even find that a confederate EU had become a magnet for Norway and Switzerland. That would be a delicious irony - sceptical Britain bringing about a strengthening of Europe that has eluded the zealots. 

Campaign to devolve EU regional policy gathers momentum

Last Friday, the Parliamentary Select Committee for Communities and Local Government's inquiry into the European Regional Development Fund, to which Open Europe submitted both written and oral evidence, published its final report. Among others, the report recommended that:

“We support the principle of repatriating regional policy funding, provided funding could be protected and ring-fenced over the long-term to ensure that the poorest English regions continued to receive the same level of support they would have received under the current system.” 

 In our recent report on the subject, Open Europe recommended that:

"Limiting EU regional spending to poorer countries [GDP below 90% of the EU average] would be a win-win situation for both Britain and Europe. It would channel more cash to the newest member states and allow the UK to spend exactly the same amount on its regions as it does now, with the option of adding the several billion that it would save from streamlining the structural funds. It would also eliminate a range of additional costs and allow the Government to radically improve the targeting of funds towards poorer areas and to viable projects.” 

We are therefore delighted that MPs accepted the central tenet of our recommendations, especially as Open Europe was the only organisation profoundly critical of the status quo to submit evidence. However, we consider that there is a realistic prospect of the government being able to secure this reform in 2014 – and that the government should be prepared to veto the next MFF, currently up for negotiation, in order to make this demand more credible – whereas the Committee sees this as an objective for 2020 and beyond.

Just to briefly recap the arguments why the reform would be a win-win for the UK and Europe:

• While it can generate added value in individual cases, involving all member states in EU regional spending, irrespective of their relative wealth, is economically irrational. In richer member states, the structural funds mostly serve to redistribute income within the same regions. As the Commission itself has admitted, this exercise creates “considerable administrative and opportunity costs”;
• Over the 2007-2013 EU budgetary period, the UK is contributing roughly £29.5bn to the funds, and getting back around £8.7bn. Of the 37 regions in Britain under the EU’s classification system, 35 are net contributors to the structural funds, with only West Wales and Cornwall net beneficiaries. Some relatively poor areas lose out substantially; for example, the West Midlands, which has the lowest disposable income per capita in the UK, pays £3.55 to the structural funds for every £1 it gets back;
• Limiting the structural funds to poorer countries would result in 23 out of 27 EU countries paying less into the EU budget than at present. - all new EU member states would be better off. The UK would save around £4bn net over seven years in addition to the £8.7bn it currently gets back through the structural funds. This option could therefore attract strong political support in many capitals, especially given the current need for governments to make savings;
• Domestically, it could enjoy cross-party support given that it was originally a policy championed by the previous Labour government, and areas represented by Labour MPs stand to be the biggest winners under this reform. 

All in all, the campaign to reform EU regional policy is gathering momentum...

Open Europe wins Prospect’s International Affairs think tank of the year

Open Europe won Prospect magazine’s 'Think Tank of the Year' in the International Affairs category Tuesday night, from a shortlist of distinguished contenders including Chatham House.

The jury cited Open Europe's "work on the EU budget and the Common Agricultural Policy for its recommendations that more be spent on the weaker countries and on research and development." It also said that we have

"produced steady, perceptive commentary on the eurozone, particularly in a report on Spanish banks in April, and a warning of the costs of losing Greece from the euro. Its work on preserving the freedom of movement of EU citizens in an era of rising public hostility was well timed, as was its 'Trading Places' report. 

Our heartfelt thanks to the jury and to Prospect.

The eurozone crisis in 140 characters

The eurozone crisis - with its numerous rolling summits, announcements, proposals, simultaneous economic and political developments in multiple member states and fast-paced market reactions - has brought Twitter to the forefront of EU reporting and analysis.

Unlike English football commentator Mark Lawrenson, at Open Europe (as in @openeurope) we like twitter and use it to keep up with various euro developments, as well as to flag up key events and our own analysis. It's a great supplement to our increasingly popular daily press summary. Of course, the key is not only to tweet fast - and summarise often complex economic and political concepts in 140 characters - but to also get it right. Which is why we were very pleased to see that Barron's - a leading American financial magazine - has selected Open Europe's twitter account as one of five that “consistently provide great information and trenchant analysis” on the Eurozone crisis.

Barron’s notes

"Once again, Twitter is proving its mettle as a source of instant news and analysis—this time on the euro crisis. Just as it did last year during the Arab Spring and the meltdown at Japan's nuclear plants, the social network is producing a constant stream of real-time information on the big news story of the day—some of it spot-on, some not. The trick is to follow the right people, or tweeps, and Barron's is here to help with that." 

The magazine notes that Open Europe's strength is its "Deep bench of analysts tracking political developments", describing us as

“a think tank based in the UK that deploys a small army of research analysts fluent in more than a dozen languages to keep tabs on the crisis, both reporting and commenting on the news. A recent typical tweet dismissed any reasons for optimism for Spain after its 10-year bond yield fell below the critical 7% level. If investors were buying on rumours that the European bailout fund would buy the troubled bonds, forget it. Yes, all that in one tweet.” 

Many thanks for that. Please forgive us the shameless self-promotion but if you don't already, do follow us on twitter @openeurope.

Ps. The other four selected are @pawelmorski, @economistmeg, @LorcanRK, @alea_ - all worth following.