tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post2174585989365294123..comments2024-01-16T08:40:53.682+00:00Comments on <a href="http://www.openeurope.org.uk">Open Europe</a>: Three months is a long time in Dutch politicsOEhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00556463374230498875noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-82834142006874474342012-12-12T15:55:21.002+00:002012-12-12T15:55:21.002+00:00Maybe this analysis might convince Open Europe tha...Maybe this analysis might convince Open Europe that its continued support for the EU and the Euro is not very popular everywhere. As far as this poll is concerned it is nothing more than a straw in the wind so far but the people are restive throughout Europe even in that highly self-disciplined Germany. <br /><br />The EU is hell bent on economic suicide and it is only being allowed to do so because the is no outlet for democratic resentments. Even Italy (whose economic position is absolutely suited to reverting to an Italian currency when it would prosper mightily) is only inching towards shaking off its 'satellite' position, christina speightnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-72240020826502404272012-12-12T13:32:37.851+00:002012-12-12T13:32:37.851+00:00Seems like evvidence of good old ballot counting f...Seems like evvidence of good old ballot counting fraud to me.<br /><br />That's the way the EUSSR got a "yes" vote in Ireland on the Lisbon "Treaty."<br /><br />And we all know that, when it comes to creating the EUSSR, the ends ALWAYS justify the means, however deceitful, brutal, murderous and anti-democratic those means are.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-49655855142895907022012-12-12T12:41:43.990+00:002012-12-12T12:41:43.990+00:00@Agincourt
The 2 government parties are collapsing...@Agincourt<br />The 2 government parties are collapsing, the Political centre much less.<br />Rutte by becoming Marx Rutte has halved his party, but only 40% went to Wilders. The other 60% went from the VVD (right Centre) further left (CDA and D66).<br />The 2 government parties both have clearly moved to the centre as well (may be necessary to form a government but it kills them in the polls). <br /><br />A lot of Rutte's voters came from the CDA (Christian Democrats) and now went back. Another group went to D66 left from the VVD as well (centre party) and likley go there for their social agenda (pro-gay marriage and that kind of stuff). The VVD had become a bit more conservative on social issues (probably to get voters from the Christian democrats). If on economic the parties become very similar a lot of voters like the the D66 social policies. <br /><br />Dutch Labour is clearly leaking at their left as well. Basically all startegic voters that go back to the Socialists SP. And if the SP gets its house in order will not go for a second round of strategic voting.<br /><br />Wilders is only right on European and immigration issues. Economic policies are rather left. Purely focussed on middle incomes that are a bit scared of what the future will bring.<br />Riknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-8576945477501715462012-12-12T12:19:15.152+00:002012-12-12T12:19:15.152+00:006. SP seems to have their problem solved. But only...6. SP seems to have their problem solved. But only partially they really need quickly a guy/woman that in case of a successful next election can be a PM (or Vice-PM). Their present leader simply will cost them a lot of votes if that becomes an issue. First of course if it goes that way, but also to make the party 'government-material'. People not like to vote only for a protest party. It would make the party more of a credible alternative for Dutch Labour.<br /><br />7. Cabinet at present is likely somewhat more pro-Euro as the previous one. However the Dutch public is getting more and more enough of it. Which would mean a push in the other direction. So overall it will be very similar.<br /><br />8. To watch is how stable it is. The coalitionagreement looks rubbish (full of unrealistic/ unworkable points) so that will give likely a good basis for quarrels. See how Wilders and Roemer do both in parliament as well in the polls.<br /><br />9. The coalition made another mistake. By not assuring a majority in the Dutch senate. Simply stupid that if you have a lot of controversial issues that you assure a majority in both houses. Very unlikely that this will be corrected in next election (they are now at 30% in the polls and with little upward potential).<br />This could be another possible source of instability simply getting things not through parliament. With nearly all opposition parties benefitting from an early election (as all main parties look to be in the plus because of this). <br /><br />10. Interesting point a 50+ party has made it into parliament and does really well in the polls. probably something we will see more in Europe. Dutch are often faster than the rest of Europe with these kind of trends.Riknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-37462753038703683762012-12-12T12:18:48.542+00:002012-12-12T12:18:48.542+00:00Great analysis.
Some other points.
1. Rutte is a...Great analysis. <br />Some other points.<br /><br />1. Rutte is a zombie-PM. Highly unlikley that he will regain credibility with large parts of his potential electorate. His party having the problem that there is no real successor and Rutte as the PM is very difficult to replace especially during the run.<br />This process best case scenario for his party (replacing Rutte) probably goes by him stating that this is his last term well before the elections and bringing in the replacement leader.<br />He messed it up completely by giving away mainly things that hit people directly in their wallets while getting other issues back without direct financial consequences for the voters. Plus it looks like he himself moved substantially to the left iso making it clear that the cabinet is left from him and his party. Breaking several important electionpromises and he simply doesnot look reliable/credible anymore.<br />Plus it became more clear that he is a bit of a nitwit who simply cannot make rather simple calculations or do simple bookkeeping. <br /><br />2. As a consequence thereof as well as that his coalition partner has moved considerably to the middle while they have made their gains in last election nearly all at their left the cabinet looks highly unstable. The parties could keep it alive unnaturally to avoid new elections but also drop it unnaturally to avoid more damage.<br />Thing is we donot know and they donot know.<br /><br />3. Stategic voting that brought this cabinet its majority looks highly doubtful in a next election. They basically broke their promises on too many issues and often one day after the elction. Difficult to see that many people will repeat stategic voting now. If you're not getting what you want in the first place you better vote for the real thing (SP and Wilders).<br /><br />4. Wilders looks to have made a slight adjustment in strategy. Less only hard one-liners. Imho the right strategy for him people had enough of the previous Wilders. But unlike Rutte he adjusted the brand and not throw away a lot of the brandvalues like Rutte did and got caught with.<br /><br />5. Their, the new cabinet's economic policies are horrible. The only proper thing is keeping the debt low. But basically it is more state and more transfers to the unproductive, hardly something that will work especially if the country's economy is already slightly under water. Very social indeed, but doing the job and get the economy going again is another issue.<br /><br />Riknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-59415431542908757392012-12-12T11:33:33.806+00:002012-12-12T11:33:33.806+00:00Thank you for the good news that the Dutch politic...Thank you for the good news that the Dutch political centre is collapsing. Yes. Good news indeed!Agincourtnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-73562359538328474322012-12-12T11:10:31.046+00:002012-12-12T11:10:31.046+00:00Excellent analysis of Dutc politics here and now. ...Excellent analysis of Dutc politics here and now. And the worst has yet to come next year(s)!Bob Lagaaijnoreply@blogger.com