tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post2675770470849678475..comments2024-01-16T08:40:53.682+00:00Comments on <a href="http://www.openeurope.org.uk">Open Europe</a>: The 'Monti paradox' couldn't last foreverOEhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00556463374230498875noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-29977144586278597742012-11-20T11:29:08.606+00:002012-11-20T11:29:08.606+00:00Italy's budget and economy is nobody's bus...Italy's budget and economy is nobody's business but Italy.<br /><br />It ts a sovereign nation, and it does not have to answer to anyone for anything it does.<br /><br />It merely has to be prepared to accept the consequences of its actions.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-58951622307402402032012-11-19T11:54:58.131+00:002012-11-19T11:54:58.131+00:00Europe cannot handle the truth (to start with a Fi...Europe cannot handle the truth (to start with a Filmquote).<br />Especially in its South the whole situation is simply completely unsustainable, but on the other hand the people are not ready for it. And not only because of the Euro.<br /> Made worse by the fact that:<br />- the majority receives entitlements,<br />- taxation is so complicated that most people do not see how much they pay (not even to mention were it is spend on), so entitlements look for free,<br />- the majority lives from paycheck to paycheck.<br /><br />Very difficult to make a real u-turn towards structural reforms.<br />The majority doesnot want to run the risks associated with that.<br />Combined with so called experts that shout all sorts of theories that basically intellectually only serve their political goals.<br /><br />In other words Europe needs a shock. Hopefully it is like something like Greece goes bust, but it might be that it has to be their own country.<br /><br />Monti only bought time. And did within the limits of the political possibilities a good job. Focus on the most important issues. However the measures are nowhere near enough.<br />Anyway usually in around 2 years there is austerity fatigue and with democracies that can come up at the wrong time: around elections.<br />What people would want to see is that things go better. Which is totally unrealistic in this crisis. No light at the end of the tunnel yet.<br />Also from the way the other parties react it can be seen that they expect basically populist policies (the Hollande variety) likley will give them a better result at election time.<br /><br />So my guess. Monti indirectly will be sent home next election. Get Hollande policies and subsequently we will see either markets dumping Italy like Berlusconi is back in charge or the North pulling out the plug (or things falling apart by itself).<br /><br />There we have the shock. The likely Hollande style new government will as said course straight and at full speed into the iceberg. Will be sent home within a few months (unfortunately for France it is extremely difficult there) and new elections will take place. Likely with dusting off Monti (as the only Italian with credit abroad left and subsequently he can start to finish his job. Riknoreply@blogger.com