tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post3234059608243019666..comments2024-01-16T08:40:53.682+00:00Comments on <a href="http://www.openeurope.org.uk">Open Europe</a>: Athens strikes another bargain in Brussels, but how long will this one last?OEhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00556463374230498875noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-44626198291296984412013-07-18T21:06:56.539+01:002013-07-18T21:06:56.539+01:00The underlying problem of the Greek economy is the...The underlying problem of the Greek economy is the role played in the past by the Public Sector, starting in 1981. The Central Government infused loaned cash into the economy targeting solely increases in consumption while raising Public Sector wages and employment, in fact doubling the number of Public Sector <br />employees between 1981 and 1989 from 367000 to 720000. At the same time Tax income was marginally increased and real economy productive investment went down.This turned the private sector into a sea of shop owners so that by 2009 the membership of the trading guilds though out the country increased to the unlikely number of 840000 in a nominal total work force of less than 5.5 million, where the majority of operations were one man or one family overpriced consumption convenience businesses. These folded as demand plummeted and added to the "legally" unemployed "worker" statistics bringing the real unofficial unemployment number close to 1.5 million. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-5352420159432513552013-07-10T12:58:33.438+01:002013-07-10T12:58:33.438+01:00What I can't get my head round is the continua...What I can't get my head round is the continual demands to cut the civil services, lets be honest it is the civil servants that run the country not the politicians no matter what they might think, so if you continue to get rid of the people who actually run the country what are you left with....Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-15278129083576085282013-07-10T11:36:41.551+01:002013-07-10T11:36:41.551+01:00Do you think Europe is solvent?The undeclared bank...Do you think Europe is solvent?The undeclared bankruptcy of most European Banks how much of the states GDP represents?Do you believe that Italy and Spain are solvent?DVKhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06482066208077176659noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-4571641108594741552013-07-10T09:35:38.291+01:002013-07-10T09:35:38.291+01:00Let us all be honest about what is going on.
Will...Let us all be honest about what is going on.<br /><br />Will Greece and Cyprus (and the rest of the PIGS plus France) EVER be able to pay back their debt?<br /><br />With national GDP, Eurozone and EU GDP shrinking it is just impossible. So it will be bail-out after bail-out until the heavens fall in and the crash finally comes.<br /><br />It must be obvious to all that this "kick the can down the road approach" that we have seen since 2008 is just building a bigger and bigger bubble which will soon pop.<br /><br />In the meantime, the UK continues to accept allcomers from the EU, despite the fact that the country is GB1.2Trn (and counting) in debt and despite the fact that it is socially and economically unsustainable. The UK government is playing 'fast and lose' with our sovereignty and our balance sheet.<br /><br />Thank you for giving our children the best present ever - that of the handcuffs of debt.<br /><br />Europe is broken and those that broke it are still in power. More EU anyone? NO THANKS.<br /><br />SCAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-73243059558670905982013-07-09T15:20:48.149+01:002013-07-09T15:20:48.149+01:00I'm not so sure that the German elections is a...I'm not so sure that the German elections is a factor, I'd expect that Germany will act the same no matter the elections. The elections is a nice excuse for doing nothing but wait.<br /><br />When the bailout funding runs out then Greece will run out of funding and default.<br /><br />The governments slim parliamentary majority is not much of a factor, the decisions have been taken but the implementation is slow. The slow implementation is understandable, who'd like to make themselves redundant without incentives/benefits?<br />The only cheap incentive that is still available is to do the opposite of what Eurocrats are doing. Eurocrats keep hours worked high per worker to keep wages high for the few. Greeks might do better to shorten the average working hours down from 2000 hours per year down to 1500 hours worked for year, that reduction in working time might make even a 25% reduction in pay more acceptable.<br /><br />The average Greek tax-payer might find it more palatable to pay more taxes if the 'Lagarde-list' was being dealt with a bit swifter than what is currently happening. Sadly I do not see that happening.<br /><br />Central banks rolling over their holdings of government bonds? Seems very illegal under current treaties (monetary financing).Jespernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-57247721162979214392013-07-09T13:29:03.482+01:002013-07-09T13:29:03.482+01:001. There seems to be a nearly perfect correlation ...1. There seems to be a nearly perfect correlation between buying time (what we see here for the 382746th time in this crisis) and PIIGS postponing structural measures.<br />Nothing is solved and it is completely unlikely that something will occur that solves the crisis in another way. Simply kicking the can, buying time.<br /><br />2. Highly dangerous therefor imho. Not only relating to Greece directly but also in other ways.<br />-How long will parliaments up North accept this nonsense? And as the preliminary question to that: how long will their voters do that?<br />-When will markets start to price in long term (1 or 2 decades for most and for some even more) Japanese (at best) conditions. Because that is what it does. It assures that the bottom is not falling out, but nothing more than that. There is no basis for future growth. And Japan has a proper economic basis and a lot of local savings, something most Latinos donot have. Furthermore Japan had only competition in the first part of the stagnation from countries that were roughly as expensive. PIIGS have competition from all over the place and nearly all are much cheaper. So likely it will be much worse.<br />-Also in the South when will people get enough of it and go the Euro-sceptic or anti-Euro way.<br />-It simply gives a rotten example to Italy and Spain. 'You will get away with it'. While these 2 are likely TBTS.<br /><br />It is clear that this way the Southern PIIGS will not get their business in order (and the same goes for France and Belgium). Structurally uncompetitive combined with a welfarestate that is unaffordable (France and Belgium) or locals donot want to pay the price for (rest of the South).<br />The only things that is happening is that the hole these countries are in gets deeper and deeper (read at the bottom/new start, debtlevels will be considerably higher). <br /><br />Simply a short term fix with big medium and longer term downside risk.<br /><br />The plan is set up basically with not much room and on unrealistic prognosis. If history is a guide and it very likely is, both will not be met. Simple maths says subsequently that there will be a hole (unless there is fresh plumbing) and it will be there soon.<br /><br />No use to recap the banks as well (as some French moron suggested). Next to the fact that these need a new businessmodel as well before in anyway capable to compete in an open European market, they will be gone when the country collapses. Which would leave say the ESM (next to the ECB) with a huge loss.<br />While the country still is not able to function normally. <br />For that structural cost level of government services should go down considersably. Government should be made much more efficient. Sov debt should be reduced. And the country should have a competitive pricelevel.<br />If one of these fails basically meeting thew others is rather useless. So why risk your EU money for something that hasnot got direct effect anyway. <br /> Riknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-20370070546274147362013-07-09T13:26:04.033+01:002013-07-09T13:26:04.033+01:00Cash-for-reforms? It is no cash, but credits. And ...Cash-for-reforms? It is no cash, but credits. And it is not about reforms, but about the destruction of a state. All these "rescue" measures are riding Greece even deeper into the crisis, just have a look at growth (-5 per cent) and the dept ration (180 per cent). But you guys in the UK seem to like this Kind of "help"...Eric B.http://lostineu.eunoreply@blogger.com