tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post6207319016813202605..comments2024-01-16T08:40:53.682+00:00Comments on <a href="http://www.openeurope.org.uk">Open Europe</a>: A euro exit may benefit Greece eventually but it won't be an easy rideOEhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00556463374230498875noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-14237715751915714822012-06-07T07:30:40.875+01:002012-06-07T07:30:40.875+01:00To come back on my earlier remark that mainly focu...To come back on my earlier remark that mainly focussing on Greece is typical European thinking.<br />1. What is happening in Greece itself is hardly important for the bigger picture/worldeconomy. The financial exposure of other EU and UK institutions is marginal now the major part of the sov debt de facto is taken over by the European taxpayer.<br />2. The contagion is basically pure psychological. Or better could be. Most people already think that Greece will leave the EZ at one point. And the countries that could catch the debt-bug have already been infected via other ways. The rest looks safe.<br />Most likely a non-event like the CDS.<br />3. It looks like the Greeks want to run the risk to hang themselves to blackmail the rest. The only option being when looking for a working solution is let them hang themselves. Giving in means de facto giving in into Spain/Italy as well which is simply unaffordable. Which doesnot mean it won't happen. And helping them via the backdoor effectively will do the same.<br />4. Looking at the role of the UK it should stay away for 2 reasons the closer you get the more money you can contribute and the further you are away from the contagionpool the smaller the effects will be. Especially seen the fact that the UK has basically no influence on the events.<br />5. It is in the UKs interest to reneg the EU treaty as for most of its people this is probably the minimum position.<br />6. To do that preferably the conditions should be right to do so. Meaning that a sort of shock event has taken place so everybody has to consider its own position anyway. Plus some barganing tools (think about EU-treaty change veto possibility).<br />7. The shock and rethinking by the other EU memberstates will rather happen with a self-inflicted disaster in Greece than with again another donation. The rootcause of this crisis is that individual countries can do what they please and jeopardize others with it AND get away with it anyway. Furthermore a further rescue is via EU (likely a main source of financial assistance) and IMF more likely to be paid partly by the British tax-payer anyway.<br />8. Strategic targets for the UK are reneg the EU treaty, no mess in the core EZ (which it cannot influence) and pay as little as possible for the mess. Getting the Greece house in order is simply not one of them. Even worse is counter productive.Riknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-2215415786389743662012-06-06T17:38:45.808+01:002012-06-06T17:38:45.808+01:00WHAT'S HAPPENED TO YOUR TWO WORD PASS-KEY ? ...WHAT'S HAPPENED TO YOUR TWO WORD PASS-KEY ? It's illegible AND it even got included in my message making a nonsense of the last sentencechristina Speightnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-34873244534725621902012-06-06T17:13:18.390+01:002012-06-06T17:13:18.390+01:00Of course Greece will be better off outside the Eu...Of course Greece will be better off outside the Euro - it would have been better still if it had quit 2 or 3 years ago. But the longer they leave it the less benefit of leaving. <br /><br />The whole world would be better off if the euro was scrapped. Iclewmha 5t's a world menace.christina Speightnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-8200079169986560912012-06-06T12:51:32.084+01:002012-06-06T12:51:32.084+01:001. The first question is why should the remaining ...1. The first question is why should the remaining EZ help Greece with another 100 Bn or so.<br />This is one of the rootcauses of the whole crisis. Countries doing what they want jeopardising others and getting away with it.<br />The EU isnot helping Bulgaria that is still much worse off, either.<br />2. Counterproductive anyway as it gives Italy, Spain and Co an incentive to copy that policy. Which would make any rescue unaffordable.<br />3. Typical European thinking.<br />4. Greece needs to get to a stable situation (a bottom) to start growing again. If it hasnot reached that point investors will simply stay away. And quick is is ruining it reputation and you carry a loss of reputation for a very long time. Anyway the first 2 or 3 year after abust nobody will invest. The longer you wait the longer it will take, the deeper the whole yoy are falling in will be and the more difficult it will be to get out.<br />In that respect a devaluation could be seen as a highway/fasttrack to the bottom/the new start. that cannot be avoided anyway.Riknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-77493805487753495352012-06-06T11:08:53.942+01:002012-06-06T11:08:53.942+01:00http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/35413/1/MPRA_paper_...http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/35413/1/MPRA_paper_35413.pdfFrancescoAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06363387393054240716noreply@blogger.com