tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post6630517848215093382..comments2024-01-16T08:40:53.682+00:00Comments on <a href="http://www.openeurope.org.uk">Open Europe</a>: A eurozone banking union will fundamentally change the rules of the game for Britain in Europe: Is Cameron ready to pull another veto?OEhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00556463374230498875noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-14348834296498423902012-06-18T18:58:23.831+01:002012-06-18T18:58:23.831+01:00An example of the efficiency of the commission whe...An example of the efficiency of the commission when it relates to regulating banks:<br />http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-15/how-to-say-deceptive-accounting-in-spanish.htmlJespernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-42391312968289288452012-06-18T15:41:40.600+01:002012-06-18T15:41:40.600+01:00Will Cameron produce a veto? Who knows ! There...Will Cameron produce a veto? Who knows ! There's no way of fathoming his utter duplicity.<br /><br />BUT if he wanted to restore health to Europe as a whole he would announce our withdrawal from the EIU which would destroy the whole bureaucratic and undemocratic monster at a single stroke. But he would have to be resolute! Has he got the guts? I doubt it and thus Europe - dragging Britain with it - will descend into the new dark ages just as Greece already has, with meaningless elections, mass poverty and gradual breakdown of drugs and health services. <br /><br />The solution lies in Cameron's hands provided he acts decisively and doesn't continue his soft soap of the architects of this disaster - the EU leaders.christina Speightnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-64957481075973877742012-06-17T08:50:37.970+01:002012-06-17T08:50:37.970+01:00Re the UK.
1. We basically donot know which sort o...Re the UK.<br />1. We basically donot know which sort of banking union we are talking about. The proposals will never be passed the way they look now. Mt guess if there will be one it will be one regulator with more oversight over national ones. <br />2. So for the UK combination of wait and see and simply communicating its own wishes looks the best.<br />3. Strategically proposing this without consulting the main banking country, its CB, and its main banks was a huge strategic miss.<br />4. A minimum EC regulator (imho the most likely outcome if accepted anyway) is likely for the EZ a step forward.<br />A proper and full scale one totally unrealistic.<br /> For the UK it basically means more red tape (assuming a likely revised proposal).<br />5. For the UK probably best not to join and assure that rules are compatible, so not require a double check/audit if you want to do business in the EZ.<br />6. Good opportunity to bring structure of EU up. And start discussing undercap of Southern banks (undercap in the 'market' way not the dodgy accounting way that is now used).Riknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-59342735740622228242012-06-17T08:39:27.273+01:002012-06-17T08:39:27.273+01:001. A banking union anyway is a very low probabilit...1. A banking union anyway is a very low probability event. Massive guarantees from the North; not solving much anyway (see Mr Davies blog in the FT);etc..<br />2. At best realistically is mainly a centralised bankregulator.<br />Which will subsequently be again a de minimum.<br />3. Looking at the PIIGS banks they have at present several weaknesses (to say it friendly) of which most cannot be solved.<br />4. Overexposed to rubbish sov debt. Is basically impossible to solve at this moment. With high and heavily correlated risks.<br />5. Overexposed (and heavily) to own national sov debt. Also impossible to solve.<br />6. Undercapitalised, often hidden in too low reserves and provisions for bad debt, via dodgy accounting rules and simply borderline or over borderline cheating. Need recap looks extremely difficult.<br />7. 4,5,6 are basically the problem now. These can only be solved by riskspreading (means de facto dumping massively PIIGS sov debt and especially own sov debt), resp. creating a bad bank or simply make proper provisions. Require massive recap operation (so will not happen).<br />8. Basically a long term solution and won't do much now.<br />9. For the European accountguarantee (next to being politically and likely legally a no go up North) this is only part of the problem. The main part likely being banks going bust for everybody (not only smaller private accountholders) and possible exchange exposure (likely the biggest problem in Greece now at the moment). Only do be solved by massively increasing the sort of guaranteed accounts and guarantee in Euros both look again totally unrealistic (as the German de facto will have to do that).Riknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-83799121768491308292012-06-16T20:32:39.006+01:002012-06-16T20:32:39.006+01:00It's a regional POLITICAL UNION your masters w...It's a regional POLITICAL UNION your masters want, and a monetary union is just a near term goal. A WORLD UNION will follow.Charleston Voicehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08574090041647133840noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-58658349652883186152012-06-15T14:45:00.560+01:002012-06-15T14:45:00.560+01:00"That would give rise to moral hazard of ridi..."That would give rise to moral hazard of ridiculous proportions."<br /><br />There is no "single rule book" or harmonization of regulations that can prevent massive moral hazard. The whole idea of providing a backstop for banks is fallacious. Banks get in trouble for very good reasons, and there is no justification for saving them from their own incompetence with taxpayer money.Patrick Barronnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-47891252561729717932012-06-15T14:20:11.056+01:002012-06-15T14:20:11.056+01:00Sweden wishes to introduce legislation that forces...Sweden wishes to introduce legislation that forces banks to have higher capital adequacy ratios. A bit similar to what Switzerland has introduced. However, due to EU-membership Sweden is currently prohibited from doing so: It has been claimed that forcing Swedish banks to become safer is violating EU-rules regarding competition....Jespernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36227136.post-84738450547630667832012-06-15T11:48:59.392+01:002012-06-15T11:48:59.392+01:00Cameron will be torn between his approach to the E...Cameron will be torn between his approach to the EU, as king of the Quislings, anxious to ensure a federal state with central control in Europe; and his own voters, who voted him in at least in part because he pledged a referendum on our membership. He will try to slime his way through this maze; but do not count on him doing anything useful.Rollohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18255460090580758354noreply@blogger.com