No, unfortunately we don't have some secret inside info which you could trade on and make bundles of money (not that we're willing to release on our blog anyway). But there has been an interesting development in the (booming) world of eurozone research in the last few days with the announcement of the new Wolfson Prize.
Lord Wolfson, Chief Executive of Next, has launched an economics prize offering £250,000 to the person who comes up with the best plan for winding up the euro in an orderly way (reportedly making it the second biggest prize in economics after the Nobel Prize).
Lord Wolfson explained his rationale for creating the prize, saying:
“Currently there is only one plan: deeper fiscal integration that gives EU central authorities greater control over tax and spending in member states. But this does little to cure structural deficiencies in the eurozone…if the economic merits of deeper integration are questionable, political failure is a greater risk…So we need the world’s brightest economists to devise Plan B, by which the euro can be safely dismantled.”
There is no doubt that this is an area that needs much greater examination. As we have said for a long time, denying that a eurozone break-up is a possibility is of little help. Letting it happen in a disorderly fashion would be far worse than the alternative of considering how it could be instituted if it became necessary. As such this prize could definitely help shed some much needed light on a massively complex issue and we for one look for to reading and analysing the entries (naturally we will air our thoughts and musing through our blog).
Interestingly, there is no guarantee that the prize will be dispersed, if no viable plan is found. That, as Lord Wolfson pointed out, would in itself be “quite revealing”.