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Monday, January 09, 2012

Get ready for another rollercoaster ride

As we noted last week, 2012 is going to be another incredibly messy year for the euro (hardly an earth-shattering prediction).

Everyone agrees that the next few months are going to be a crucial phase in the eurozone crisis. If a long term solution isn't found it is likely that one never will be and the window of opportunity for saving the eurozone in its current form may close for good (if it hasn't already). We've been here before of course (remember 'six weeks to save the euro'), but there needs to be, at least, some sort of settlement over Greece, to avoid a hard, uncontrolled default in the first half of 2012. Below are the key dates to watch, focusing on meetings and bond auctions - expect this list to increase substantially given the almost weekly meetings between eurozone leaders these days. It's going to be a busy first quarter for euro leaders - summits of various kinds are in bold:

--Monday, Jan. 9: Meeting between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy in Berlin
--Tuesday, Jan. 10: Ireland's troika of lenders expected to start latest review of country's bailout program.
--Thursday, Jan. 12: ECB interest rate statement and press conference. Spanish (€3.5bn) bond auction.
--Friday, Jan. 13: Italian bond auction (€6bn).
--Monday, Jan. 16: Troika of international inspectors expected to return to Greece to resume talks on new bailout deal.
--Thursday, Jan. 19: Spanish (€3.5bn) and French (€8bn) bond auction.
--Friday, Jan. 20: Troika talks in Greece expected to end. Ireland's troika of lenders releases its latest quarterly review of the country's bailout.
--Sunday, Jan. 22: Finnish Presidential elections
--Monday, Jan. 23: Euro-zone finance ministers meeting. --Tuesday, Jan. 24: European Union finance ministers meeting.
--Thursday, Jan. 26: Italian bond auction (€4.5bn).
--Monday, Jan. 30: EU leaders summit. Italian (€7bn) and Belgian bond auctions (€4bn).
--Tuesday, Jan. 31: Greece aims to conclude talks detailing new EUR130 billion loan deal, debt-exchange program with private-sector creditors by this date.

--Thursday, Feb. 9: ECB interest rate statement and press conference.
--Wednesday, Feb. 15: eurozone Q4 2011 GDP estimate released.
--Friday, Feb. 17: EUR1.6 billion Greek T-bills maturing.
--Tuesday, Feb. 28: ECB three-month and three-year long-term refinancing operation. Italian bond auction.
--Wednesday, Feb. 29 to Thursday Mar. 1: Italy sees €46.5bn in debt maturing.

--Thursday, Mar. 1: EU leaders meet in Brussels for a two day summit.
--Thursday, Mar. 8: ECB holds monthly meeting
--Saturday, Mar. 10: Slovakia holds parliamentary election
--Monday, Mar. 12: eurozone finance ministers meet in Brussels --Tuesday, Mar. 13: EU finance ministers meet in Brussels
--Tuesday, Mar. 20: Potential Greek default? Greece sees €14.4bn in government debt mature, needs to have next tranche of bailout funds and second bailout in place to be able to cover this cost.
--Friday, Mar. 30: eurozone finance ministers meet in Copenhagen --Saturday, Mar. 31: EU finance ministers meet in Copenhagen; Deadline for new Spanish government to present 2012 budget to Spanish parliament

--Sunday, Apr. 22: French Presidential election

1 comment:

Sheona said...

It's rather odd to think that while the EU and eurozone are beavering awy with meetings, the fate of the eurozone is probably being decided by the markets.