We've just published a new Flash Analysis outlining our thoughts on the final deal on the long term EU budget. See below for the key points:
- For the first time, the EU’s long-term budget will be cut in real terms. The UK government and its allies should be given credit for securing this - especially since this budget will be for 28 rather than 27 countries.
- The final deal shows that compared to the current long-term EU budget (2007-2013), so-called ‘commitments’ will be cut by €34bn and ‘payments’ will be cut by €35bn. This represents a 3.4% cut and a 3.7% cut respectively (in real terms). The unusually large gap between these two amounts – needed to secure a deal – could potentially cause issues down the line.
- The UK’s gross contribution is likely to fall (as a share of UK GNI) but the net contribution could still increase as more money will be channelled towards the new EU member states – such spending isn’t covered by the UK rebate. However, it’s in the new member states that regeneration cash in particular can have the most comparative impact, so the UK government has done the right thing and this should not be seen as a “defeat”.
- The European Parliament could still scupper the deal and, in a very odd move, some MEPs have called for a “secret” ballot, although they can only approve or reject the deal, not amend it.
- In the final proposal, direct payments under the CAP have fallen €62.5bn in real terms - a positive development. However, just under 40% of the budget will still be spent on farm subsidies, and as a whole, the EU budget will remain largely inefficient and out of date.
Also for a idea of the difference between the this budget and the current one see this handy table (click to enlarge):