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Wednesday, April 23, 2014

Is the eurozone crisis over? The Germans think not…

There was an interesting poll in today’s FAZ conducted by INSA for Bild on whether Germans believe that eurozone crisis is over or not.

The results were pretty comprehensive with 81% saying that they do not believe the crisis is over compared to 7% who do.

Furthermore, 34% of Germans believe that Greece is on the road to recovery compared with 39% who believe the country has not done enough to reform its economy. Clearly they remain very unconvinced by the efforts of the Greeks.

In the same vein, Eurostat this morning put out its first estimate of the debt and deficit figures for the end of 2013. As might be expected they don’t make particularly pretty reading. As the graph below highlights, the debt levels in many EU countries have continued to increase and by substantial amounts in Cyprus, Greece and Slovenia – all due to bank bailouts/recapitalisations.

With debt levels continuing to rise and the long term structure of the eurozone still developing it remains premature to cast the crisis as over - at least the Germans seem to think so.


Rik said...

Looks like the credibility issue of traditional European politics (and media as well btw, they are the bringers/reporters of the news), is worse than I thought.
Hardly anybody seems to buy the rhetoric. And rightly so btw.

In this respect re your own reporting. Just look at your reporting on the Ukraine:
"In a phone call with Russian Foreign Secretary Sergei Lavrov, US Secretary of State John Kerry has “expressed deep concern over the lack of positive Russian steps to de-escalate” the crisis in Eastern Ukraine, according to US officials. Separately, a senior US official is quoted as warning of “mounting costs for Russia if they choose a destabilising rather than constructive course in the days ahead.”

Better keep mentioning both sides unless a full scale war breaks out you never get a problem with it.
All conflicts usually start with 90+% approval rates. This will unlikely be above 50% evn in the start up phase.
But it moves usually in the West rapidly back and this has all the ingredients for that: substantial costs, likely mess, immigrants/refugess at home; fall out (Putin can get very nasty if he has to, just the rumour 'cut the gas' and the EU is in a mess for couple of months as they have no means to counter that. Putin could even let the Kievs take the fall for that).
Point is people forget they originally have the same views.

Good news is this gives a lot of media exposure to put OE even better on the map. Especially as a lot of the remarks make a lot of sense while most media coverage is simply utter garbage.
It is unlikely to stick to you in particular like a 'wrong' view on immigration or anything else racist. Also seen the fact that the whole media coverage as said is rubbish.

Main issue it will be a minus (size still to be estimated) with a lot of people that need effectively to support the reneg strategy and to whom the reneg results should be sold (and likely you need a lot of credibility for that).
And it puts you in the wrong camp.

In a nutshell the current line looks simply way to Hagueish. And as you know I simply see him as a considerable liability for the reneg camp and the Conservatives in general.
And much worse the likes of Rollo, Christina and Denis do as well (who represent the views of a lot of potential and very real voters, which is of courser the only thing that counts). Look at their remarks here: it is simply no trust whatsoever for especially Hague. Something that rubbishes your (party-)'brand', makes people move to other parties and not come back until it is properly restort (which requires simply another crew).
The Conservatives basically look very close to the point that they simply have to get rid of all the old guard to have any chance in a next election (and not only Hague). They probably would already have been past that point imho were it not that Labour is a mess in its own right and Mr Ed were not the personification of electoral crap, as well as the UK system which makes it very difficult for new not regional parties.

Denis Cooper said...

Yes, the eurozone crisis has come and gone, and with it has gone that future "golden opportunity" to get EU treaty changes that the Tories said they would be able to use, the "jam tomorrow" promise they made back in late 2009 when Cameron was announcing his abject surrender over the Lisbon Treaty. Which 2009 edition of the "jam tomorrow" pledge has now been replaced by an updated version with a promised delivery date of 2017, and if anybody believes that then they must be pretty gullible.

Rik said...


Like this one shows credibility is a gigantic problem. More important for people like Hague who have become the personification of traditional politics even more.

Like the reneg reform it is a thing where spin is unlikely to work. It simply plays too long and nowadays with the internet there are much more sources available, spin would have to be considerably better to work. Not the garbage we get now, with 90% comments that are having the exact opposite opinion. Any Dodgystan government like the Kievs with Neo-Nazis in it is a non starter to begin with. Anybody with a brain should have taken their hands of it when that happened.
Will only change when when things get completely out of hand (let us hope not for other reasons).
Even more for the reneg. You need credibility to sell it. Just look at the Dutch and French referenda too technical and voted down therefor mainly on the fact people had: Some Apples To Peel, with their local governments.
Which brings me back to Hague and Co he is in no way the person to sell the result of even the: 'Mother of all Renegs' to the UK electorate.

This is btw also very EU related the Grafin von Ashton was a prominent player (traditionally in the wrong camp of course, nobody like a loser and the only thing they like less is an ugly loser). Simply another party nobody should get associated with the only realistic candidate for having less credibility than Hague.
When people like Putin get popular see it as an indication that the other side simply stinks worse than rotten fish as that is what it usually is.

So my advice to you donot be put yourself too clearly in that particular camp. very little upside and a much more downside.

Rik said...

EU distionary:

Austerity: Spending more money than you get in.

Stimulus: Uberausterity: spending so much money that you likely get into financial problems.

Wait till you see the definition of democracy.

Anonymous said...

The MananaZone crisis has certainly not gone and you are naïve if you think so.

7 EU countries are locked in a deflationary spiral with Netherlands close to entering it too.

The fact is that the Euro is too strong for many of the southern nations, their debts are still too high, many banking systems are still broken and EU rules and laws are making them even more uncompetitive than ever before.

As for economic restructuring - what is that then? And let's not mention France either or the fact that the EU still have no credible economic policy for dealing with the crisis. And to top it all off Germany has still not bothered to equalise its balance of trade.

Crisis over? That is just laughable!


perdix said...

Mr Cooper, I can't see your assessment of abject surrender on the Lisbon Treaty by Cameron as being accurate or truthful. Once the Treaty was signed by Brown the only way to revoke it was by having enough votes in parliament to do so or to have a referendum to do so. Those conditions have not existed.

Denis Cooper said...

Mr Perdix, either the Tories' stern "we would not let matters rest there" pledge actually meant something, or it was just another Tory attempt to string along the gullible.

Which do you think?

As it was first stated by Hague in November 2007, and then it was repeatedly stated for nearly two years, including in the Tory manifesto for the last EU Parliament elections, but then afterwards it was dropped with a fatuous claim that the Lisbon Treaty no longer existed, I know what I think.

But then I'm not a Tory, so I don't have to attempt to defend the indefensible.

Rollo said...

These failed economies got where they were because they could borrow very cheaply because they were in the Euro; everyone thought it safe to lend to them. They were wrong. Then Draghi tells the world, we will do everything needed to save the Euro. So, help yourself to another dose of the same disease. People are flocking to buy their bonds because they pay 3% or 5%. They are counting on the ECB to provide the safety net. Very foolish.