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Friday, May 23, 2014

Dutch reformers hold ground as Wilders falters

We've already blogged about the Dutch #EP2014 exit poll but we thought we'd also break down the projected result according to the classifications we used in our recent briefing which forecast the composition of the new parliament. Rather than using the arbitrary and artificial EP political groups (which tell you little about what the parties actually believe), we classified the parties in three blocs - status quo/more integration, critical reformers, and the malcontents' block (see here for a detailed explanation of these classifications).

Here is how the projected Dutch result looks:

While we predicted that overall, there is a risk that the malcontents' bloc and the status quo/more integration parties could crowd out the critical reformers, the Netherlands could slightly buck this trend with the critical reformist parties - Dutch PM Mark Rutte's VVD party and the ChristianUnion - increasing their vote share.

This is encouraging although sadly it looks unlikely to be replicated across the EU given that Dutch politics is particularly fertile for reform minded parties.


Rik said...

1. The smaller parties not mentioned are not in the pro-Euro block.
Animal party (I know it is moronic but they are Dutch) probably in the malcontent block.
Aged party probably critical reformers.
If I am not mistaken the Pirates are at 1 at the polls but they are definitely not Status Quo (have you seen those guys clearly aged/pensioners party).

2. from these percentages the 2 with real upside potential are the 2 governing parties. Which you have as reformers (probably right) VVD. Who will eat from the CDA and D66 if they can find a successor for Rutte.
Status quo (PvdA). Likely this party simply has to move to the reformer camp the votes are going to the SP for whom being very EUcritical is a main selling point. So might end up in another camp.

3. The status quo camp has a relatively high turn out. Just look at the peil thingy.
Especially the anti/very sceptics have a low turn out.

4. Overall the thing simply seems to be moving to reform there. It is the national thing that counts not the EP election. People see it maybe not as unimportant, but very likely see it as a national issue (not an EP parliament one.

5. Anyway parties like the VVD are simply moving because of the pressure by other parties (mainly Wilders there). It is not necessary to make things move to have a majority.
Like before when without popular support MPs could get a lot of the EU stuff through. Could well end up the other way around now.
The population is EU critical and considerably. And likely want to get one back for the earlier referendum scam.
Traditional parties like everywhere are longer term having problems they simply ignored the voter way too long. Probably the same reason the Euro is kept alive, no traditional party want to get the blame for starting the thing up. Here all are scared except may be the Greens (might change on US FTA) and D66 of their traditional voters ideas about Euro and EU.

Peter van Leeuwen said...

The sub division given is interesting but in my experience also a bit artificial:
A good reform proposal in the direction of more focus/ priority on fewer tasks (concentrating on fewer tasks and doing them better) would likely enjoy large parliamentary support. The prime minister / VVD leader will make such a proposal in next week's European Council on behalf of the government i.e. a majority in parliament.

Rik said...

Had a look at what went wrong here for Wilders.
Basically looks to be another weak campaign (like the general election).

One of his main selling points is dynamics and it all was pretty tame.

Looks like being a one man band is breaking him up. Programm was very poor. I could have given it a 50-100% quality boost by only spending say 2 hours on it.
There seem to be few people that can take a lot of work from him. Simply no quality organisation (even compared to other political parties which are in general an organisational disaster themselves).

As said he has to clean up his team every 4 year or so, which is likley verey labourintensive. The lack of organisation is not only causing him to do many things himself (and no useful feedback of course), but also causes a lot of problems that normal parties donot have (and take a lot of energy to solve).

I donot think he is over. There is simply not really an alternative. But further growth seems unlikely.
Seems to operate in a 15-30 seat (of 150) range and is now a bit at the upside. The right competition is relatively weak now so these have more upside potential than downside and subsequently the other way around with a mediocre performing Wilders.
Would be my guess at least.

However he will remain the face of anti-EUism in Holland and also European (at least one of the main ones). Simply highly mediagenic internationally. Great to get a specific topic in the media or again in the media (Wilders always does something irritating with it and gets the publicity).

Freedom Lover said...

I do hope Open Europe is also in the "Malcontents" group. The "Critical Reformers" section sounds enticingly acceptable, except that, as we all know, their hopes & needs are completely UNacceptable to the euro-federalists & the EU Commision in Brussels.

Surely it's as clear as a bell, that EU reform is a complete delision. The only worthwhile way for those who want change in the EU is to leave it!