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Wednesday, August 13, 2014

Latest employment stats suggest no new 'wave' of Bulgarian and Romanian migration

The ONS has today released its UK labour market statistics for the period April-June 2014, which include the latest estimates of the number of EU migrants in the workforce. These are the key points:
  • In total, there were around 820,000 more people employed in the UK than a year earlier, of which around 500,000 were UK born and 327,000 were non-UK born. 
  • Of the non-UK born, 187,000 were from the EU and 140,000 from non-EU countries.
  • The number of Bulgarian and Romanian born people employed in the UK stood at 153,000, up by 13,000 from the same period last year (a 9% increase), before transitional labour market controls were lifted.
  • However, the numbers from other central and eastern European countries increased far more dramatically to 861,000, up by 178,000 from last year (a 26% increase).
  • The number of migrants from the ‘old’ EU member states fell by 9,000 (a 1.2% decrease).
This is only one set of data and refer only to employment (not the same as migration figures, the latest batch of which will be released later this month), and it will be interesting to see how the figures match up.

Source: ONS
The chart above breaks down the share of EU born employed and shows that the group responsible for the biggest increase is the central and eastern European countries that joined the EU in 2004. The Romanian and Bulgarian share is up a little but, as we noted before, there has not been a major change since the lifting of transitional controls on 1 January 2014. Interestingly, the number of people employed from the 'old' EU 14 states has dropped slightly - the number of migrants from this group had been increasing as a result of the eurozone crisis. Is this a sign that this trend is slowing or reversing?


Rik said...

In Germany the figures are a lot worse, apparently it pays (as expected) to have a nasty image in this respect.

Anonymous said...

One wonders where the information has come from, and if it is only the labour figures than it does not take into account those who are here and not working where the major problem lies.

Rik said...

Unlike your daily presssummary imho the immigration by EU citizens is caused by a combination of:
-a proper economy that is growing (like UK or Germany);
-with high wages.
Simply when you save say 30% of your nett UK income you save more than what your total local income would be in some 'less fortunate' EU countries, when you could find a job there at all.

You donot solve that by changing tax rules for low incomes. These rules would affect British low incomes as well. The gap between say Bulgarian wages and UK ones would still be huge.

The only way to effectively stop a massive inflow would be to limit numbers one way or another.
making things more difficult works shorter term, but if it will work longer term is simply unclear.
The least the UK could do is take care no other semi-thirdworld countries get full access to the UK labourmarket.

This is mainly a low income problem. The complaints by locals are nearly all re low income immigrants. Furthermore higher income immigration pays for the services they require. The issue with low income immigrants (next to the coordination issue) is simply that most financing will have to be done by locals.

It is also not about immigrants coming to work. The 70s and following immigrants wanted to work as well. The issue however is that they ended up as nett receivers and a lot of them as large nett receivers.
The EU low income group looks to have a bit more potential, but the growth capacity of the UK is lower plus half the population is simply pretty fed up with immigrants (so long term demand simply will very likely be lowert han before).

Gawain Towler said...

When UKIP supported the Migrationwatch estimates of 50,000 per annum from Romania/Bulgaria we were pilloried. Yet these figures, if the trend continues will top that estimate.

No wave? This is more than a ripple.

Rollo said...

50,000 new EU migrants: 50,000 more unemployed school leavers.
There is not a youth unemployment crisis, there is an uncontrolled EU immigration crisis. Ditto for housing, schooling, policing, prison, GPs etc: all immigration crisises.

Anonymous said...

also non-eu as well