Italy's new Prime Minister: Pro-EU integration, anti-austerity?

We've detected strong demand for a quick profile on Enrico Letta, who has just been appointed Italy's new Prime Minister. With the debate raging over the wisdom or otherwise of German-style fiscal discipline in the eurozone, the big question is: is Letta against austerity? Here's a short bio:

• Letta is from Tuscany and will turn 47 in August. This means he's in line to become Italy's third-youngest Prime Minister ever. 

• He holds a PhD in European Law, and was appointed Europe Minister in 1998. At the time, he was 32 - which made him the youngest Italian minister ever. He also served as Industry Minister under Massimo D'Alema.

• Letta was an MEP between 2004 and 2006. 

• He's been the deputy leader of the centre-left Democratic Party since 2009.

• Importantly, he is a big AC Milan fan - which could help him win support from Silvio Berlusconi. Well, perhaps along with the fact that Enrico Letta is the nephew of Gianni Letta, Il Cavaliere's closest aide. 

So what about his political views and that key austerity point?

In his press statement after the meeting with President Giorgio Napolitano, Letta said Italy should be

"firmly committed to changing the direction of EU [economic] policies [which are] too focused on austerity, which as European Commission President [José Manuel] Barroso said the other day are no longer sufficient."

(Hallo, Angela!) 

And remember that when the EU won the Nobel Peace Prize, Letta tweeted the award should be

"a spur to be prouder, more concrete and effective in our pro-European stance. There's no future without the United States of Europe." 

This goes to show he is strongly in favour of more EU integration (though admittedly so are a majority of Italian politicians). In other words, Napolitano has appointed a Prime Minister with solid European credentials and who can credibly argue for an easing of austerity in the EU. Quite smart. 

Crucially, Letta also stressed the new government won't be formed "at any cost". This can be seen as a warning to Silvio Berlusconi not to set out too tough conditions for lending his support. However, it's worth bearing in mind that Berlusconi's centre-right alliance is ahead in all opinion polls - meaning Silvio is in a position of strength right now.

Letta will hold talks with all other political parties tomorrow. If things move on smoothly, we should have the list of ministers by the end of the week. Follow us on Twitter @OpenEurope and @LondonerVince for further updates from Italy. 

Italy has a new Prime Minister. And it's a surprise one...

Enrico Letta, deputy leader of Italy's centre-left Democratic Party and Pier Luigi Bersani's right hand, is very close to becoming Italy's new Prime Minister. He's currently meeting President Giorgio Napolitano (as you read this blog post), and will be given the mandate to form a new government.

Letta emerged as the main candidate in the last 24 hours. The fact that Napolitano has chosen Letta  is significant for at least two reasons:

• Letta is undoubtedly a politician, as opposed to the previous favourite Giuliano Amato, who would have been seen as a technocratic Prime Minister. This means Napolitano has opted for a political solution to the post-election stalemate;

• Letta is 47, and Amato is 75. So the choice made by 88-year-old Napolitano addresses the Italian electorate's call for a rejuvenation of the political system. This is significant in the 'old vs young' struggle that has characterised Italian politics recently.

We will provide more detailed analysis once Letta unveils his list of ministers. In light of his appointment as Prime Minister, we would now expect politicians rather than technocrats to grab ministerial posts - although we can't rule out the involvement of a couple of technocrats in the new cabinet. 

However, make no mistake: this move doesn't wipe out the deep divisions among the main political parties, and whatever shape the government takes, it won't be easy for Italy to continue with the reforms that the eurozone demands.
    

And Italy's new President is...the old one! What happens next?

It took the Italian parliament almost three days and six ballots to elect a new President of the Republic. Well, newish. Incumbent Giorgio Napolitano, who will turn 88 in June, eventually caved in to pressure and agreed to serve a second term. This is unprecedented in Italian history and shows how deep the country's political crisis is. Unable to overcome the stalemate and agree on a new President, the main parties have turned to the old one and begged him to stay.

The good news is that, following Napolitano's re-election, Italy looks set to have a new government in place sooner rather than later. The big news is the new government would undoubtedly include Silvio Berlusconi's party.  

What happens next? 

• Napolitano will take his second oath this afternoon. From that moment, he will re-gain the power to dissolve parliament and call new elections.

• Crucially, Napolitano has said he will "clarify the terms" under which he agreed to stay on in his (second) inauguration speech. The Italian media are speculating on at least two conditions. First, a shorter mandate than the seven years set out in the Italian Constitution - otherwise Re Giorgio would be leaving office at 95. Second, and most important, the formation of a national unity government - backed by the centre-left Democratic Party, Mario Monti's centrist group and Silvio Berlusconi's People of Freedom party.

• The markets seem to take the formation of a new government for granted, with Italy's borrowing costs going down this morning. 

• The latest from the Italian media is that Napolitano will hold a swift round of talks and could give someone the mandate to form the new government as early as tomorrow. There are reportedly two clear favourites to lead the new government. One is Giuliano Amato, 75 years old, who already served twice as Italian Prime Minister. The alternative is Enrico Letta, Pier Luigi Bersani's right hand. We would put our money on Amato, especially since not everyone within Letta's own Democratic Party is enthusiastic about him being appointed as Prime Minister.

• The new government is likely to be a mix of politicians and technocrats. It will focus its efforts on bringing home 5-6 key reforms, based on the proposals put forward by the ten 'wise men' earlier this month. We expect the new government to give priority to political, rather than economic reform. Top of the agenda will be changing the electoral system, along with reforming a pretty dysfunctional institutional structure where the two houses of parliament have perfectly equal powers.

• In any case, the new government is unlikely to remain in charge for the entire five-year parliamentary term.

Winners and losers of Italy's presidential election

Silvio Berlusconi: Big winner

Whether you like him or not, Berlusconi's handling of the presidential election was masterful. He avoided 'hostile' candidates being elected (think of former European Commission President Romano Prodi or left-wing Law Professor Stefano Rodotà, Beppe Grillo's man). Any new government will be dependent on his party's support - exactly what Il Cavaliere wanted since the beginning. The centre-left is in disarray, and his centre-right alliance is now ahead in all opinion polls. No surprise Silvio was so radiant when Napolitano's re-election became official on Saturday evening.

Beppe Grillo: Winner

Beppe Grillo also comes out as a winner, although his victory is likely to become more obvious in the longer term. The Five-Star Movement's presidency candidate Rodotà was a high profile one. Yet, Rodotà was ignored by Bersani's Democratic Party - which never really considered backing him without giving any plausible explanation for doing so. Ideal conditions for Grillo to claim "a clever institutional little coup" was materialising. We would expect a surge in popular support for the Five-Star Movement - though maybe not in the immediate future.

Pier Luigi Bersani: Big loser

With a couple of poor strategic decisions, Bersani has pushed his party to the edge of a break-up and lost his left-wing ally SEL. After kissing goodbye what could be his once in a lifetime opportunity to become Italian Prime Minister, he also had to step down as party leader. And his party looks set to be in government with Berlusconi again - an option Bersani firmly opposed. Bersani burst into tears the moment Napolitano was re-elected. Some of that may just be relief at his ordeal being over.

So this is where we are at, but things are moving quickly. Keep following us on Twitter @OpenEurope or @LondonerVince for real time updates from Italy.

Italy: Will Bersani have any luck in forming the new government?

While the spotlight has firmly been on Cyprus these last few days, over in Italy centre-left leader Pier Luigi Bersani has just been given a mandate to try and form the new government by President Giorgio Napolitano.

Bersani has been explicitly asked to talk to other political leaders and report back to President Napolitano "as soon as possible" - we assume this will happen at some point next week. Basically, he will have to prove that his government would be supported by a majority in the Senate - the hung upper house of the Italian parliament - before he gets the definitive go-ahead.

So what happens next?

• Bersani will try to convince the other parties to back his plan for a 'minority government', which would seek parliamentary support on a law-by-law basis. It's going to be difficult. Beppe Grillo's Five-Star Movement doesn't want to do business with anyone, while Silvio Berlusconi is clearly in favour of a proper 'grand coalition' with Bersani - as this could see his party getting several ministerial posts. However, President Napolitano himself has today acknowledged that a 'grand coalition' presents "relevant difficulties".

• If Bersani does not succeed, he will have to give up his mandate to the President - who will then have to task someone else with forming the new government. This person would probably be someone from outside of traditional politics - that is, someone capable of gathering cross-party parliamentary support as Mario Monti did in November 2011. As we've noted, incumbent Interior Minister Anna Maria Cancellieri and Senate speaker Pietro Grasso are the names doing the rounds in the Italian press.

• Failing this, the only option left would be new elections. A slightly untimely outcome, given what's happening in Cyprus (think market pressure).

In the meantime, Mario Monti stays on as caretaker Prime Minister - he will leave office only after the new cabinet is sworn in. Keep following us on Twitter @OpenEurope and @LondonerVince to stay on top of events in Italy (and beyond).