Upside down Europe

With politics heating up in the frigid Swedish winter we can’t help but get the sense that Europe is turning itself on its head a bit…

North becoming South?

• We warned yesterday that the Swedish government was on the brink of collapse. So it has proved. The Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Löfven today announced snap elections for the 22 March 2015 after the Swedish Parliament refused to back the government’s budget and instead voted for the opposition’s budget. This was largely down to the Sweden Democrats who are playing king-makers in the current parliament. Such political turmoil is alien to the usually placid Swedish political scene and rings more of happenings in struggling Eurozone countries unable to agree on an austerity budget in the midst of a severe economic crisis.

• Similarly, at the start of the year, the Danish coalition government was weakened by the departure of the Socialist People’s Party (SF) – which was not happy about the sale of part of state energy firm Dong to Goldman Sachs. However, the party said it would continue to support the government from the opposition benches. The move forced Prime Minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt into the seventh cabinet reshuffle since she took office in October 2011. The next general election is due in September 2015, and we wouldn’t be surprised to see the Danish People’s Party become the effective powerbroker – similar to the SD in Sweden – especially after they became the largest party at the European elections earlier this year.

• We have also noted numerous times (see here and here) that the Finnish economy is struggling and posting some of the worst growth figures in the EU. While it is stabilising now it is finding it hard to source new drivers of economic growth following the decline of Nokia, the tech sector more broadly and the paper industry. The long term economic malaise is surprising in a country which continuously ranks high in measures of competitiveness (4th globally according to the World Economic Forum) and ease of doing business (9th globally according to the World Bank).

South becoming North?

• In the third quarter of this year two of the strongest growing economies in the Eurozone were Spain and Greece. While countries such as Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium barely pulling themselves into positive growth territory the two periphery stalwarts posted some strong figures.

• Throughout this year we’ve also seen numerous periphery countries getting close to record low borrowing costs, including Ireland, Italy, Spain and Portugal.

• Discussion over the US-EU free trade deal TTIP have exposed some unusual fault lines. With countries such as Portugal and Italy pushing strongly for the deal to be struck and talking in very free trade terms, Germany and France have been raising concerns and taking a more protectionist stance.

Although thinking about it, we still have a looming economic and political crisis in Greece, economic malaise in Portugal and Italy and the rise of numerous populist parties. Maybe rather than the North and the South switching, the whole of Europe is just becoming more Southern…

What are the implications of today's ECJ ruling on EU migrants' access to benefits?

As we've said on many occasions, it is not only the UK that is having problems reconciling EU free movement with maintaining control over national welfare systems; Germany has recently tightened up its own domestic rules recently and the country also faced a legal challenge from a Romanian woman living in the country who claimed the right to receive German unemployment benefits - a case which was referred all the way up to the ECJ.

Essentially, the Dano case concerns the interpretation of existing rules around EU free movement and the extent to which EU migrants have a right to equal treatment with nationals of the host member state with regards to access to benefits,

The Court has finally issued its verdict today, ruling that:

"The [2004 free movement] directive thus seeks to prevent economically inactive Union citizens from using the host Member State’s welfare system to fund their means of subsistence. A Member State must therefore have the possibility of refusing to grant social benefits to economically inactive Union citizens who exercise their right to freedom of movement solely in order to obtain another Member State’s social assistance although they do not have sufficient resources to claim a right of residence." 

It is also interesting that the Court has confirmed that certain non-contributory benefits are outside the scope of EU rules which guarantee equal treatment and non-discrimination. The UK and other national governments can therefore use this precedent to defend their restrictions on EU migrants’ access to non-contributory benefits (i.e. the ‘right to reside’ test which could be subject to an ECJ legal challenge).

It also states clearly that ‘special non-contributory benefits’ are a national competence – much of the dispute between the UK and Commission over the ‘right to reside’ test relates to the categorisation of certain UK benefits. This could be useful to the government but it is also true that the UK's case still rests on how the benefits they restrict are defined (i.e. do they fall under the label of 'special non-contributory benefits'), and whether the Commission and the ECJ agree, which we still don’t know yet.

In short – this is likely to be a helpful precedent for the UK and potentially a sign that the Commission/ECJ are prepared to back down over the ‘right to reside’ issue. But more fundamental changes on in-work benefits, which are increasingly important issues in this debate and particularly for the UK, will require changes to EU law - here we set out how this could be done while keeping the principle of free movement itself intact.

EU migrants' access to benefits: A cross-party concern in Denmark

We flagged up last week that the debate on EU migrants' access to benefits was kicking off in Denmark - potentially leading to a row with the European Commission.

New figures have been unveiled that will do little to assuage political tensions. According to the Danish Employment Ministry, government spending on unemployment benefits to migrants from Eastern and Central Europe has increased tenfold between 2008 and 2012 – from DKK 32 million to DKK 345 million.

The data prompted criticism from across the political spectrum - confirming that EU migrants' access to state welfare is very much a cross-party issue in Denmark.

Claus Hjort Frederiksen, a former centre-right Danish Finance Minister, commented: 

We need to discuss what kind of protection we're able to offer in these cases. It's not a problem that will disappear.

Nadeem Farooq, the spokesman of the governing centre-left Social Liberal Party, warned:

The figure has risen quite dramatically, so we must take it seriously. We cherish freedom of movement, which makes Denmark wealthier. But we're also prepared to introduce controls and the necessary safeguards.

Interestingly, a proposal by the left-wing opposition Red–Green Alliance to make sure that EU citizens also pay Danish social insurance contributions in order to create "a level-playing field to qualify for unemployment benefits" is being supported by the anti-immigration Danish People's Party.

Meanwhile, the European Commission has announced that it will take legal action against Finland, which has a similar welfare system to Denmark and will therefore be backed by the Danish government in the legal challenge. The Commission has said it hasn't yet had time to look properly at how the Danish system currently works and what is being proposed (check out our previous blog for more detail), but informally it has said that the newly proposed measures look "illogical".

This looks set to run and run...

EU free movement: Denmark is in an almighty mess

After the UK, Denmark is now the country in which the intersection of the single market, social security and domestic politics looks the most complicated and contentious.

EU migration has become front-page stuff in Denmark. We're talking papers publishing a comprehensive list of the benefits EU migrants are entitled to, complete with the cost to the Danish taxpayer (2 billion Krona or €270m per year - according to Ekstra Bladet).

The reason is that Denmark has hit a bit of a perfect storm involving the complex interaction between EU law and three separate subsidies: child benefits, student grants and unemployment benefits. Basically, Denmark is accused of breaking EU law in all three areas:

Child benefits: In 2010 the then centre-right Danish government introduced a requirement for EU citizens to have worked in the country for two years before being entitled to claim benefits for their children (the "børnecheck"). The European Commission said last year this practice violates EU law, forcing the Danish minority government to seek to bring the rules in line with EU law. However, the opposition has so far refused to support a proposal to make EU migrants eligible for child benefits from day 1.

Student grant: In Denmark, students pay no tuition and are eligible for a grant while they study. In a ruling last year, the European Court of Justice said EU students must also be eligible for the grant - a very controversial ruling for various reasons (not least since few students from elsewhere in the EU seem interested in sticking around once they are done studying).

Unemployment benefits: According to figures from the Danish government, EU migrants are less likely to claim social benefits than the national average, but more likely to claim unemployment compensation (though the margins are small). The perception that EU migrants claim more of this benefit than natives is political dynamite. In response, the Danish coalition is planning to tighten access to unemployment benefits, by requiring Danish language courses, a mandatory call for availability to work and stricter requirements to be domiciled in Denmark.

The European Commission has hit back against these changes, calling them "illogical". And to add fuel to the fire, Copenhagen may soon be forced to change its existing rules on unemployment benefits (Under Danish rules, EU citizens must have worked three of their past 12 months on Danish soil before being eligible for the "dagpenge").

In a case likely to set a precedent for Denmark, the Commission has taken Finland to the ECJ over similar rules. The Danish government this week submitted its own defence in support of Finland but diplomats in both countries think they might well lose, meaning the rules have to change.

All of this is creating a very awkward situation for Danish Statsminister Helle Thorning-Schmidt. So far she has insisted on EU law needing to be respected - but Danish voters are aware she's also eyeing a top EU job in the EU institutions later this year and cynicism is growing.

Needless to say, the Danish People's Party has had a field day, saying stuff like:

“Either our entire welfare system collapses or the EU rules are changed. I would prefer the latter.”

DPP (DF) is now at over 20% in some polls and could win the European elections. 

So what does this mean for David Cameron? Well, he can take heart in the fact that one country faces a greater legal - though certainly not political - dilemma over EU migration than he does. Logic would suggest that Denmark is a strong, potential ally to the UK in reopening, say, the EU Social Security Regulation (which regulates access to a number of benefits, including child benefits).

Worryingly for Cameron, this is not quite how some people in Copenhagen see it though. But, we must say, it would be an accomplishment for the UK government to fail to sign up the Danes' support on this issue.

The Danish situation is seriously messy. 

#EU reform: The status quo is not an option

Our ground-breaking EU reform conference is now imminent and, as widely trailed in today's media, UK Chancellor George Osborne will be giving the opening keynote speech.

You can join the conversation throughout the day on twitter, using the #EUreform hash tag, or follow @openeurope. Uniquely for this type of a conference, all sessions will be on the record. We call it "Open Europe rules" (as opposed to the more secretive Chatham House rules).

In a letter to today's Guardian, six leading MPs from across Europe, all attending the conference, argue:

Too often, the debate about "Europe" is based on emotional and ideological arguments, with all sides – from those who want more EU integration and those who want less – trading in hyperbole rather than engaging with substantive issues of policy. Of course we need to co-operate across borders in Europe. The question, as ever, is how. How do we square the need for cross-border action with democratic accountability? How do we live up to the promise to make decisions as close as possible to citizens? How do we make Europe really work for growth and jobs at a time when global competition is stiffening?  

Today, we are joining hundreds of parliamentarians and opinion-formers from across Europe at a unique conference in London organised by the thinktank Open Europe and the Fresh Start Project, dedicated to one question: how can we achieve EU reform? While our proposed solutions may differ, we agree on one thing: the status quo in Europe is not an option. If the EU is to thrive, it needs to embrace a series of bold reforms. Some of these will involve EU action, but where democratic and economic factors so dictate, this may also mean "less Europe". We want to replace the emotional point-scoring with a policy-based discussion about how to achieve a Europe that works better for both democracy and growth.

Gustav Blix Swedish MP (Moderate party); ranking member, committee on European Union affairs (Sweden)
Klaus Peter Willsch German MP (CDU); member, committee for economy and energy,
Germany; Deputy head of the committee on education, research and technology (Germany)
Angieszka Pomaska Polish MP (Civic Platform); Chair of the EU affairs committee in the Polish parliament (Poland)
Eva Kjer Hansen Chair of the European affairs committee (Liberal party), Danish parliament (Denmark) Andrea Leadsom MP for South Northamptonshire (Con); co-founder, Fresh Start Project; member of No 10 policy board (UK)
Dr Reinhold Lopatka Spokesperson for foreign and European affairs, Austrian People's party (OeVP); former secretary of state for European and international affairs (Austria)

Syria: The Ins, the Outs - and the Maybes

As we noted in our previous blog post, Syria has again shown that the EU holds almost as many foreign policy positions as there are states - though we should also remember that this is an extremely complex and senstitive situation.

However, as we also note below, EU countries seem to be coalesing around at least three positions at present. One group - the UK, France and Denmark - is commited to military action with or without the UN. The second group are the definite 'outs' and the largest group is made up of those still waiting to make up their minds. Added to that there is perhaps a fourth group made up of a number of smaller states who have not expressed a clear opinion.

The table below divided the 28 EU member states into these four groups, based on our reading of the current stated positions. This is of course a very fluid table - heavily dependent on evidence, events and developments - and as ever, we welcome reader comments in case we've missed something or if a country's position changes.

Click to enlarge

EU budget talks: The dust has settled - and they all won!

We've been listening to the national press briefings of several EU leaders following the deal on the EU budget (which we analyse here). And you got it - they all won! (well, almost). Here goes:

David Cameron (UK)

• The British Prime Minister said, "I think the British public can be proud that we have cut the seven-year credit card limit for the European Union for the first time ever." 

• He went on, "The only way you can best protect the British taxpayer is to keep overall spending down, and that’s what we’ve done, and also to keep what remains of the rebate, and it is completely untouched." 

• On the possibility of MEPs staging a secret ballot vote on the next long-term EU budget, Cameron said, "Of course the European Parliament has a role, and we should respect that. But I don't really understand secret ballots. Parliaments and votes should be open, should be transparent, people should be accountable for how they cast their votes."

Angela Merkel (Germany)

• As usual, the German Chancellor - the power-broker - did not give away too much during her presser. She said, "The effort was worth it…in my view this agreement is good and important." 

• She also warned that "the negotiations with the European Parliament won't be easy".

François Hollande (France)

• The French President, a bit sulky, said this was "the best deal" on offer given the circumstances.

• He repeatedly stressed that the UK wanted payment appropriations to be lower than €900bn over seven years, while France was insisting on €913bn (see here if you are not familiar with the commitments vs payments distinction). According to Hollande, given that the final compromise was reached at €908.4bn, "Everyone will say who made the bigger step" - a way to suggest that David Cameron had given up more than he did.

• According to Hollande, France will also save some €140m a year on its financing of the various rebates. On the rebates, the French President made his most interesting remark (see here, around 16:00 in). He said, "I knew that there was no possibility to put into question the British rebate, because you know that it is provided for by the [EU] Treaties [which, by the way, is incorrect]. Therefore, it is immutable" at least until the Treaties are re-opened for negotiations. The British, he added, "should keep this in mind, including when they demand treaty changes." If this is not a threat, then what is?  

• He said that funding for agriculture has gone down overall, but he has made sure that aid to French farmers will remain at the same levels as in 2007-2013. Now, that's what you call 'solidarité', right?

• Finally, the French President admitted that the UK was not on its own in these negotiations, as "other countries wanted more for themselves and less for Europe".  

Mario Monti (Italy)

• The (caretaker) Italian Prime Minister hailed a "particularly significant improvement" in Italy's net position compared to other big net contributors to the EU budget.

• He said Italy has secured an extra €3.5bn in funding compared to the compromise proposal on the table at the November summit.

• Furthermore, Italy will save around €600m a year on its financing of the various rebates.

Mariano Rajoy (Spain)

• The Spanish Prime Minister said the deal is "very good for Spain". Contrary to expectations, Spain will remain a net recipient from the EU budget over 2014-2020 - which is huge. 

• Rajoy was particularly pleased by the fact that Spain "will get almost 30%" of the new fund for youth unemployment included in the next long-term EU budget. 

Mark Rutte (Netherlands)

• The Dutch Prime Minister opted for a lower profile. He said, "Of course you never completely get it your way with 27 member states, but I think that we as the Netherlands can be satisfied." 

• He described the deal as a "sober" budget, and said that the Netherlands "worked well together" with Sweden, Germany, Denmark, and the UK.  

Helle Thorning-Schmidt (Denmark)

• The Danish Prime Minister said her country "came here with three priorities, and we satisfied all of them", pointing out that she had secured an annual rebate of €130m.

Fredrik Reinfeldt (Sweden)

• The Swedish Prime Minister said the deal was "a surprisingly good result".

• He argued that, contrary to fears that Sweden's contribution to the EU budget would increase, it is, in fact, set to drop slightly.

Donald Tusk (Poland)

• The Polish Prime Minister spoke of "a huge success" for his country, stressing that Poland's receipts will increase by €4bn despite the long-term EU budget facing a €38bn cut from the previous seven-year period.

• He went even further, claiming today was "one of the happiest days of my life". Wow!

Werner Faymann (Austria)

• The Austrian Chancellor was less enthusiastic than many of his counterparts. He said the deal struck this afternoon is "presentable" for Austria - which managed to secure a rebate, although it will be phased out by 2016 (see the final deal here).

Petr Necas (Czech Republic)

• The Czech Prime Minister was pleased about his choice to threaten a veto. He said, "If the Czech Republic had not seriously threatened to block the negotiations, then it would not have been possible to negotiate a better outcome."

The long queue of potential 'EU budget vetoes': Who will join next?

Update 21 November, 16:15

Portugal has stepped up its rhetoric by a notch, and has now joined the group of countries that have explicitly threatened to use their veto. Portuguese Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho told MPs, "The proposal that has been tabled [by European Council President Herman Van Rompuy] is completely unacceptable for Portugal. By saying this, I mean that I would block a decision [by EU heads of state and government] that had this proposal as its final result."

In practice, this means that one third of EU member states have so far explicitly said that they are ready to veto the next long-term EU budget.  

Update 21 November, 10:40

Another day, another EU budget veto threat - this time from Latvia. Prime Minister Valdis Dombrovskis has said that his country is prepared to veto the 2014-2020 EU budget unless it gets a better deal on agricultural subsidies and cohesion policy.

Update 20 November, 17:00

Italy has today officially moved to the group of countries that have explicitly threatened to veto the 2014-2020 EU budget. Italian Europe Minister Enzo Moavero Milanesi said Italy will be "ready to use its veto" if it considers that the next long-term EU budget is "harmful for the country and burdensome for the Italian taxpayer."

Also, Portugal added its voice to the group of member states that consider Van Rompuy's proposal "unacceptable", but stopped short of threatening a veto. 
 
And here's our original blog post,

You will have read a slew of stories about how the UK is threatening to veto the EU leaders' budget talks later this week and the various terrible consequences that will follow should it do so. The FT has a story today that EU diplomats are working to "circumvent" the UK's veto by moving to annual Qualified Majority Voting, which actually only means that they're working on a scenario for a roll-over, should a deal fail to be struck (we've already looked at that scenario in detail here) so don't get too excited.    
As some European sources have put it, a "miracle" would be needed to strike a deal on the 2014-2020 EU budget when EU leaders meet in Brussels on Thursday and Friday. And the UK is certainly not alone when it comes to putting its veto on the table. In fact, veto threats are flying around all over the place - we count seven veto threats in total. Here is a list of EU member states who have either explicitly threatened to veto the next long-term EU budget or said they are unhappy with the compromise currently on the table - which means they could wield their veto unless something changes.

UK: Has threatened to veto any proposal which does not involve, at worst, a freeze based on 2011 payments.

Denmark: Has warned it will use its veto unless it gets a rebate worth 1 billion DKK (slightly over £100 million) from the 2014-2020 EU budget.

France: Has said the compromise proposal put forward by European Council President Herman Van Rompuy "is not a basis for negotiations". Paris wants EU farm subsidies to be kept at least at 2013 levels, and said it will threaten to veto the talks should CAP spending be radically changed.

Sweden: Has hinted at using the veto in the past and believes Van Rompuy's proposal still does not go far enough. According to Swedish Europe Minister Birgitta Ohlsson, what is missing is "a clear model for reducing agriculture subsidies".

Austria: Has threatened to veto the long-term EU budget unless two conditions are satisfied. Firstly, Austria wants to continue receiving its 'rebate on the UK rebate' over the next seven-year EU budget period. Secondly, the Austrian government is opposed to cutting the rural development component of the CAP.

The Netherlands: Does not want to see the annual or long-term EU budget increase above inflation, and explicitly said it will use its veto if necessary.

Romania: Has warned it could use its veto, calling Van Rompuy's proposed cuts to farm subsidies and regional funds "unacceptable".

Italy: Has not threatened to veto the talks but dismissed Van Rompuy's compromise, saying it is "not a positive contribution" to the negotiations. Italy wants to see its net contribution to the EU budget cut, the reason being that its GDP per capita has now slipped slightly below the EU-27 average. Rome also opposes cuts to farm subsidies and cohesion policy.

Spain: Has rejected Van Rompuy's proposal as "unacceptable". Reports have suggested that, under the proposal, Spain risks losing up to €20 billion in total over seven years in both farm subsidies and cohesion funds. However, Madrid is still to drop the "V" word.

Poland: Has not explicitly threatened to wield its veto, but is clearly not happy with Van Rompuy's proposed cuts to EU regional spending. Poland is trying to muster support from other net recipients from the EU budget, such as Portugal - the so-called 'Friends of cohesion group'.

So, it looks like circumventing a veto on the 2014-2020 EU budget would mean much more than circumventing the UK.

What a ski slope 'in the world's flattest country' says about EU funding

Fresh from giving Denmark some credit for prudent use of taxpayers' cash, here's a less flattering story:

Over at Open Europe we have issued periodic briefings on projects of dubious value which have wasted EU funds – in our 2008 report on ‘100 Examples of EU Fraud and Waste’, we picked out the particularly bizarre example of a ski slope constructed on a flat Danish island where snow rarely falls. By Scandinavian standards, the island is renowned for its mild climate, and there are no high hills.

In 2006, the ski slope was given around €100,000, from the European Agricultural Fund which can provide financial support for various activities in rural areas (many have little to do with agriculture, incidentally). Following our list and reports in international media, Agriculture Minister Eva Kjer Hansen, whose ministry handled the grant, said in 2009 the "criteria for getting [EU] subsidies are not rigorous enough" and said that she would "tighten the screw". Then EU Agriculture Commissioner Mariann Fischer-Boel also promised more stringent tests.

Fast forward 2012 and where are we at? Have the EU funds been paid back since they failed to create any new jobs? There has been a radical overhaul of spending criteria? Not quite.

Die Welt last week reported that the organisation "Bornholm's Friends of Skiing" (Bornholm's Skivenner) is to receive a further €33,000 EU grant for the “expansion of the ski lifts”, leading to another round of protests and disbelief.

On average, the ski slope stays open three weeks a year, according to Swedish Television, though last winter - which saw exceptional snow fall - the slope managed to stay open between the end of December and March (hats off). It had a rocky start, however. According to some reports, in its first year of operation, the ski-slope was only open for one and a half days, and nine the year after. During a normal Bornholm winter, snow cannons are of little help, because the snow only remains if the temperature is at minus two degrees on at least two consecutive days.

Hans Jørgen Jensen, the head of "Bornholm's Friends of Skiing", calls the the project a "giant success" (en kæmpe succes), though admitting that "the ski slope isn't a commercial project but I don't have bad conscience. It's about quality of life and is focused on the young."

Now skiing is fun, and it may be that the slope has proven popular with the locals, but few would argue that this constitutes a good use of taxpayers' money. Fundamentally, at the last time of counting, the island registered a GDP per capita of €31,000 - significantly above the EU average of €24,900, posing the question of whether it really needed development geared funding in the first place.

And as German MEP Inge Grässle told Danish daily Politiken:

"it's pointless to give EU money to a ski slope in a place like Bornholm where extraordinary climate conditions are needed in order for the money to generate any type of value. [EU subsidies for downhill skiing] in "one of the world's flattest countries need to come to end."

No kiddin'. So whose responsibility is it for paying out the grant? As is symptomatic of EU-funding, accountability appears to fall into a black hole somewhere between member states and the European Commission.

EU Agriculture and Rural Development Commissioner Dacian Ciolos’s response to the grant is already a classic:

“This is fully in accordance with Article 56 of the Implementing Regulation 1698/2005, which provides support for recreational activities in rural areas…The individual projects are evaluated by the national authorities, because they know the local situation best.”

Ah, it's consistent with Article 56 of the Implementing Regulation 1698/2005. All must be well then. (And they wonder why the citizens find it increasingly difficult to both understand and support the EU).

The current Danish government (which took office last year) blames its predecessors, with Agriculture Minister Carsten Hansen pointing out that it was the previous centre-right government which signed off the grant for the skiing lift. He promises that "The whole administration of the subsidies will be streamlined" (sounds familiar).

Former Agriculture Minister Eva Kjer Hansen who was in charge when the grant was paid out despite pledging to "tighten the screws" is now an MP and member of the Danish Parliament's EU Scrutiny Committee. She defends herself, saying:

"My responsibility was to look at the rules in Denmark [as opposed to EU-level rules?]. And much was done to ensure that the the impact [of the projects] were more concrete and that the more thought-through projects were the ones receiving the money."

She adds,

"It's doubtful whether we get the most out of the subsidies. Therefore we always have this discussion about whether the projects are justified. Or if the money has been handed out merely because there was EU subsidies there which simply had to be used for this or that silly project."

Not exactly a ringing endorsement of the idea of having the EU involved in rural and regional development funding in the first place.

So if I think that taxpayers' cash shouldn't be spent on a 'development' project involving a ski slope on a mostly flat and largely snow-free island with a GDP of 24% above the EU average - who should I talk to?

Leading by example...

Danish daily Politiken today informs us that the ongoing Danish Presidency of the EU - the Danes took over the rotating six-month EU chair on January 1 - will aim to be "one of the cheapest yet", with a budget of around €35 million.

In comparison:

The Polish Presidency in 2011: €115 million
The Hungarian Presidency in 2011: €81 million
The Belgian Presidency in 2010: €74 million
The Swedish Presidency in 2009: €42 million
The Danish Presidency in 2002 (the last time the country was at the helm): €52 million (2011 prices)

Dannie Kjeldgaard, professor in branding and marketing at Syddansk University, commented,

"The big story is currently that we need to save because of the crisis. Everyone tells us that we must save, and even people who don't have to save, still do it. Therefore it is prudent that the government takes the lead as it takes over the presidency. The wasting of taxpayers' money could otherwise turn in to a good media story."

Are the EU institutions taking note?

Sarkozy's outbursts reveal an insecurity

A reconstruction by the Financial Times of what happened at the EU summit on 9 December reveals that it wasn't only a classic Franco-British dispute which raised the tensions of the discussions.

The newspaper discloses that following French President Nicolas Sarkozy's dismissal of David Cameron's demands, Denmark and its College of Europe-educated Prime Minister also came under fire:

Sarkozy went on to rebuke Helle Thorning-Schmidt, the freshly elected Danish prime minister, for the temerity to speak up for a deal at 27. “You’re an out, a small out, and you’re new. We don’t want to hear from you,” Mr Sarkozy said.

It's not a secret that France has never been too happy with either the EU's internal market or the 2004 enlargement, a view forever symbolised in the notion of the "Polish plumber." Sarkozy's latest outbursts suggest that the French government is not only once again looking to further its old agenda of a smaller, more centralised and more protectionist union but that he is personally starting to feel the heat.

The elephant in the room is the upcoming French presidential election. L'Express carried a headline recently noting that French far-right leader Marine "Le Pen is riding the wave of the debt crisis and the euro" with some polls putting her on 20% for the first round of the election, to be held in April. As opposed to her father, who made it to the second round of the Presidential election back in 2002, she's not just running with an anti-immigration message but also rallies very firmly against the euro, something that wasn't on the political agenda in 2002.

Polls show that Sarkozy is currently expected to gain around 25% of the vote in the first round, while the socialist candidate François Hollande is a few percentage points ahead.

Since April is still some time away and the euro crisis can still take many turns (including France losing its triple A rating) the French press is starting to realise that there is a serious danger that a Le Pen could again make it to the second round.

Waking up to smell the coffee

As the eurozone's flaws and weaknesses continue to manifest themselves in the midst of the Greek crisis, the appetite for the euro in Europe's far north is dminishing. In Denmark, the government has been forced to kick a referendum on the country joining the euro into the long-grass, following objections from Danish unions and others over the state of the euro - and in particular the Commission's instant new powers to meddle in negotiations on pay between national social partners (a clear no-go zone for Scandi unions).

And in Sweden, citizens have done a bit of a U-turn: a poll for Swedish Television shows that 50% of Swedes are now against the country joining the eurozone, with 39% in favour and 11% undecided. When the same question was asked in April 2009, 47% were in favour of joining the euro, while 45% were against. Changing sentiments in other words. And who can blame them? The Swedish krona is on the move and more and more commentators are acknowledging that the country has benefited from staying outside the eurozone (benefits which include an annual windfall profit of SEK 30bn from higher exports).

Not everyone is getting with the programme though. The Swedish Liberal People's Party - which forms part of the governing coalition - still says on its website: "Sweden joining the monetary union would eliminate uncertainties and currency risks - and would contribute to more investments, higher income from exports and economic growth."

Right...

Scandinavians still hesitant about the euro

Peter Sutherland told the Today Programme a while back the Danes and the Swedes are "shaping up" to join the euro, claiming that there are "a majority in the public opinion wishing to join" in both countries.

Well, not quite. While the debate has picked up, a poll published yesterday showed that support for the euro actually is on the decrease in Denmark compared to a few months ago. In fact, public opinion is split right down the middle - 42% in favour, 42% against. In November last year, 51% were in favour.

Meanwhile in Sweden, there has never been a majority in favour of joining the euro, although the opposition has weakened somewhat lately. The latest poll from Statistics Sweden shows that 47% of Swedes would vote "no" in a referendum on joining the euro, 38% would vote "yes", and 15% "don't know".