- Refund Italians for a levy on first homes (IMU) re-introduced by Mario Monti's technocratic government. Berlusconi had already pledged to scrap the tax, but has now raised the stakes further.
- Scrap Italy's Regional Tax on Productive Activities (Irap, which is levied on businesses) within the next five years.
- Launch a full tax amnesty.
- Finalise a bilateral agreement with Switzerland allowing the Italian government to tax Swiss-based financial activities of Italian citizens. Berlusconi claims this would grant a one-off revenue of €25-30bn, and some €5bn a year.
- Scrap public financing of Italian political parties.
- Halve the number of parliamentarians (there are currently 630 MPs and 315 Senators).
- Cut public spending by a total €80bn in five years.
But there is only one reaction Berlusconi is interested in at this point in time: the Italian electorate's. And his populist rhetoric seems to be paying off on that front. According to the daily opinion polls carried out by Tecnè for Sky TG24, Berlusconi's PdL party continues to gain ground and is now on 20.4%. Crucially, these polls also show that the gap between the centre-left coalition led by Pier Luigi Bersani and Berlusconi's centre-right coalition has narrowed to only 4% (the two blocs are on 32.9% and 28.9% respectively). Tecnè will tomorrow release the first survey conducted after the big promises we listed above. We wait with interest.
In the meantime, the Italian stock market and borrowing costs seemed to have begun pricing in the potential for a Berlusconi victory - along with the broad added uncertainty of a close election and the recent bailout of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena. The FTSE MIB fell 4.5%, while borrowing costs edged up to 4.47%. With another three weeks before the elections, we could yet see a few more days like this.
I have been saying - and posting - for a few years now that the real crisis for the EU and/or euro-zone will come when the conflict between the interests of the EU and the interests of domestic politics becomes just too wide to paper over.
ReplyDeleteNot so long ago, all politicians in office could be counted on to make the right sorts of pro-EU noises, even if they argued their national interests behind summit doors.
But now we have moved into a new phase, where being explicitly opposed to EU or euro-zone policies can have value in national politics.
Berlusconi and Cameron are recent examples, while anti-EU parties gained votes in Greece, and just last week the PM of the Netherlands suggested new opt-outs. Interesting times.
He cannot meet all these promises and stay in the Euro. What an irony: Europe saved from the dictatorship of Brussels by Berlusconi. GO, SILVIO...
ReplyDeleteBest of luck, Silvio Berlusconi. The EU manoeuvred you out. Now, if you win again, you can pay the meddling EU back!
ReplyDeleteAgree with Rollo. What sweet irony it would be if Berlusconi was thrust back into the hot seat.
ReplyDeleteI would truly relish it if this were to happen.
I hope the Italians get behind him!
Go Silvio Go.... You have my vote!!
We seem agreed. Monti is in receipt of an EU pension and is their (dare I say it?) Gauleiter in Italy almost like Quisling was in Norway, Bersani's lot are floundering out of their depth as socialists are everywhere. Berlusconi is a demagogue certainly but he is a very definitely ITALIAN demagogue and nationalism is stirring across Europe today.
ReplyDeleteAVANTI BERLUSCONI
Berlusconi reserve only the prison. He had ruined our country with his dictatorship. Do you leave thereand are you Italian 100% to be able to write such things?
ReplyDeleteBe ashame.