See below for the preliminary results of the German elections in 2013. They'll be officially announced on 9 October, however no change is to be expected. More analysis and reactions will follow.
1. Looks like a lot of FDP voters at the last moment went for certain (and Merkel). Strategic voting in a somewhat unexpected way. Clearly for the FDP an 'existential period' will start now. They have to get a new leader that is able to get on TV in a similar way as the leaders of the parliamentary parties plus a set of coherent and consistent policies. That are attractive to the potential electorate as well. Saying this week A and next week the opposite (as they have been doing several times the last few years) simply never works. They simply have missed the change to be the EU-critical, business friendly party. Missed these 2 chances for open goal (next to their 'faces' which were an even bigger disaster.
2. The guy Lindner (I understand) in line for that simply again looks like the wrong material. Simply way too young (in the unexperienced sense). In times of crisis people want certainty and the leaders image should provide that. 30's hardly ever have that. They might work well in normal times but not in crisis situations. So likely after Bruderle, Rosler and Westerwell failure no 4.
ON Rosler if go for a minority (including women), the candidate has to be above average. Then it works positve as it is something new (Merkel, Thatcher). If he doesnot have a clue like Rosler it will backfire. Same what we are seeing now with Obozo. Also a lightweight, however Obozo is a great salesman (so it took longer to be found out) which Rosler is clearly not.
3. Which might lead to a complete eroding of the party's original electoral potential. If they are not looking to make it next election they are likely history. And that simply looks like the most likely scenario.
4. Especially as these look to be essential times in German politics. Not only the crisis, but the whole system looks to be up for a shock. -Merkel will likely be gone next election which put a lot of present CDU votes up for grasp. -The left parties are clearly looking for proper leadership and direction and havenot found either (yet at least). -Probably most important the 'populist era' has started in Germany.
5. On the last point AfD seems now the rightwing alternative for the CDU (before the FDP was that). Providing of course they can stay on the map. Which looks rather likely as their leadership looks to be of technically good quality. They are only very poor political marketeers. Next EP election likely puts them further on the map, in a similar way as it put Farage on the map.
6. AfD has half the electorate open for them the next few years. FDP looks as said a goner and when Merkel is gone the trend for Christian Dems is simply South because of the secularisation of society. And it appears to be nearly impossible to have a party with Christian in its name longer term being attractive to atheists and Christmas mass Christians.
7. Funny thing that the right got a clear majority (FDP/AfD and CDU) but as almost 10% of the vote doesnot count they not have the seats to show for it.
8. Slight electoral move to the right. But overseen everything very marginal. With AfD as a new alternative and the strongest overall candidate in that camp. The (nett) movement was mainly between the parties within the 2 blocks. Which also makes clear that there is a lot of potential for a left populist party. Either a rebranded present one or a new one.
On predictions. Polls were as in other countries before relatively poor. Not as poor as in the UK wher UKip sometimes scores double in polls held roughly at the same time. There is clearly a trend that polls are more frequent but also of poorer quality. Average 1-2-3% margin like before is simply not realistic. My guess it is mainly because the 'new' (well not that new) way polls are held (telephone panels). Panels simply do not seem very representative.
Next to the fact that the voter seems more volatile and decides on the last moment.
But neveretheless it makes rough predictions much easier (because of the higher frequency). But accurate predictions much easier because of the much higher margins of error. Like here where nearly everybody had the FDP in. And they are useful to see the trends.
On analysis. As there is no other material on basis of what we had before the election any prediction that the FDP would be out was simply not a proper analysis. Probably mainly wishful thinking. You have to look at the moment the analysis is made not at the end result. The jackpot winner in a lottery did great, but if he used the money to buy food for his children to buy the ticket he still was a dangerous idiot when he bought the ticket. As I see it on basis of the material present stable 6%ish the only possible conclusion was FDP in, but with a considerable chance that it might go wrong.
From there. It is very hard nowadays to make a proper estimate of sigma (say margin of error) for this sort of cases. Only that sigma is probably much larger than indicated with the poll.
With AfD for instance it was clear that there might be a hidden vote (as shown several times in other countries) so the percentage could differ considerably. The polls got that. But this is a reason why any poll might be inaccurate. Factual info.
Probably here the extra votes for AfD from the original 3% took care the FDP missed the 5%. (4.8 minus 3)X 22% (perc voters from FDP). Roughly 0.4% which would have brought them over the 5%. While the 22% might even be higher for this part).
1. Looks like a lot of FDP voters at the last moment went for certain (and Merkel). Strategic voting in a somewhat unexpected way.
ReplyDeleteClearly for the FDP an 'existential period' will start now.
They have to get a new leader that is able to get on TV in a similar way as the leaders of the parliamentary parties plus a set of coherent and consistent policies. That are attractive to the potential electorate as well.
Saying this week A and next week the opposite (as they have been doing several times the last few years) simply never works.
They simply have missed the change to be the EU-critical, business friendly party. Missed these 2 chances for open goal (next to their 'faces' which were an even bigger disaster.
2. The guy Lindner (I understand) in line for that simply again looks like the wrong material. Simply way too young (in the unexperienced sense).
In times of crisis people want certainty and the leaders image should provide that. 30's hardly ever have that. They might work well in normal times but not in crisis situations.
So likely after Bruderle, Rosler and Westerwell failure no 4.
ON Rosler if go for a minority (including women), the candidate has to be above average. Then it works positve as it is something new (Merkel, Thatcher).
If he doesnot have a clue like Rosler it will backfire. Same what we are seeing now with Obozo. Also a lightweight, however Obozo is a great salesman (so it took longer to be found out) which Rosler is clearly not.
3. Which might lead to a complete eroding of the party's original electoral potential. If they are not looking to make it next election they are likely history.
And that simply looks like the most likely scenario.
4. Especially as these look to be essential times in German politics. Not only the crisis, but the whole system looks to be up for a shock.
-Merkel will likely be gone next election which put a lot of present CDU votes up for grasp.
-The left parties are clearly looking for proper leadership and direction and havenot found either (yet at least).
-Probably most important the 'populist era' has started in Germany.
5. On the last point AfD seems now the rightwing alternative for the CDU (before the FDP was that).
Providing of course they can stay on the map. Which looks rather likely as their leadership looks to be of technically good quality. They are only very poor political marketeers.
Next EP election likely puts them further on the map, in a similar way as it put Farage on the map.
6. AfD has half the electorate open for them the next few years. FDP looks as said a goner and when Merkel is gone the trend for Christian Dems is simply South because of the secularisation of society. And it appears to be nearly impossible to have a party with Christian in its name longer term being attractive to atheists and Christmas mass Christians.
7. Funny thing that the right got a clear majority (FDP/AfD and CDU) but as almost 10% of the vote doesnot count they not have the seats to show for it.
8. Slight electoral move to the right. But overseen everything very marginal. With AfD as a new alternative and the strongest overall candidate in that camp. The (nett) movement was mainly between the parties within the 2 blocks.
Which also makes clear that there is a lot of potential for a left populist party. Either a rebranded present one or a new one.
On predictions.
ReplyDeletePolls were as in other countries before relatively poor. Not as poor as in the UK wher UKip sometimes scores double in polls held roughly at the same time.
There is clearly a trend that polls are more frequent but also of poorer quality.
Average 1-2-3% margin like before is simply not realistic.
My guess it is mainly because the 'new' (well not that new) way polls are held (telephone panels).
Panels simply do not seem very representative.
Next to the fact that the voter seems more volatile and decides on the last moment.
But neveretheless it makes rough predictions much easier (because of the higher frequency). But accurate predictions much easier because of the much higher margins of error.
Like here where nearly everybody had the FDP in.
And they are useful to see the trends.
On analysis.
As there is no other material on basis of what we had before the election any prediction that the FDP would be out was simply not a proper analysis. Probably mainly wishful thinking.
You have to look at the moment the analysis is made not at the end result. The jackpot winner in a lottery did great, but if he used the money to buy food for his children to buy the ticket he still was a dangerous idiot when he bought the ticket.
As I see it on basis of the material present stable 6%ish the only possible conclusion was FDP in, but with a considerable chance that it might go wrong.
From there. It is very hard nowadays to make a proper estimate of sigma (say margin of error) for this sort of cases. Only that sigma is probably much larger than indicated with the poll.
With AfD for instance it was clear that there might be a hidden vote (as shown several times in other countries) so the percentage could differ considerably. The polls got that. But this is a reason why any poll might be inaccurate. Factual info.
Probably here the extra votes for AfD from the original 3% took care the FDP missed the 5%.
(4.8 minus 3)X 22% (perc voters from FDP). Roughly 0.4% which would have brought them over the 5%. While the 22% might even be higher for this part).
Just my 5 cts.