It's raining men in Brussels: Juncker Commission at risk of humiliating veto by MEPs over lack of gender balance

We are now at the halfway point in terms of nominating the next Commission with 14 out of 28 member states having publicly announced their candidates. The line-up suggests we will have the most senior Commission to date with no less than four former Prime Ministers: Andrus Ansip (Estonia), Jyrki Katainen (Finland), Valdis Dombrovskis (Latvia) and Juncker (Luxembourg) himself. However, as the nifty graphic from EuropeDecides shows, there is a bit of a gender balance issue - only one of the nominees is female.

Notwithstanding the benefits of having a more balanced and representative Commission per se, the gender balance issue is important because the European Parliament - never slow to jump on a bandwagon or to give national governments a bloody nose - could veto the whole Commission if it contains too few women (even if the European Parliament's group leaders are themselves mostly male). European Parliament President Martin Schulz warned a couple of weeks ago that:

"Looking at the information currently available on the number of female candidates, the commission would not receive the backing of majority in the European Parliament."

The magic number is ten - one more than in the current Commission. This would require nine of the second group of 14 Commissioners to be female, which looks unlikely. Below we asses what the prospects are for the remaining member states to put forward female candidates.

Belgium: The good news for Juncker is that Marianne Thyssen, who has been an MEP since 1991, is among the front-runners for the post although Berlgium's current Commissioner Karel De Gucht has indicated he would like to stay on.

Bulgaria: It was reported that the outgoing socialist government would put forward Kristalina Georgieva, the current Bulgarian Commissioner international cooperation, humanitarian aid and crisis response, if she were to be given the position of High Representative even though she is from the centre-right GERB party. As such, it looks like Bulgaria will instead nominate current Foreign Minister Kristian Vigenin.

Cyprus: Androulla Vassiliou is rumoured to be retiring (she will be 71 in November) and in any case is from a different political party to the new government. No word yet on who Nicosia will send in her place.

Denmark: No news out of Copenhagen but the centre-left coalition government will likely want to replace Connie Hedegaard who is a conservative politician.

France: No formal announcement from Paris so far, but former Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici is the clear frontrunner. Former Europe Minister Élisabeth Guigou is still in the race, but she is broadly regarded as an outsider.

Hungary: Although it hasn't been formally announced, rumour has it that Orban will send Hungary's current Foreign Minister Tibor Navracsics to Brussels.

Italy: Prime Minister Matteo Renzi is still pushing for Foreign Minister Federica Mogherini as the new EU foreign policy chief. However, the Italian government would very likely put forward a different name if it became clear that Mogherini will not secure Baroness Ashton's job, and the new nominee may well be a man.

Netherlands: The most likely candidate is current Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem, although it is unclear if he would still go to Brussels if he were not to get the coveted Economic and Monetary Affairs portfolio - something Juncker is reportedly not too keen on.

Poland: Poland's two leading candidates are Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski and former Finance Minister Jan Vincent-Rostowski, although there is a lot of speculation that in order to balance the Commission Poland could instead put forward Danuta Hübner, an economist and MEP who already served as the Regional Policy Commissioner between 2004 and 2009.

Portugal: According to the Portuguese media, Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho is considering picking Carlos Moedas, the Secretary of State to the Prime Minister, as Portugal's nominee. However, Juncker is reportedly putting pressure for the choice to fall on Finance Minister Maria Luís Albuquerque instead. Therefore, Lisbon could potentially nominate a woman.

Romania: It appears Bucharest has re-nominated current Agriculture Commissioner Dacian Ciolos.

Spain: Former Agriculture Minister Miguel Arias Cañete is the only name doing the rounds in the Spanish media. No real alternatives have been floated.

Slovenia: No news out of Ljubljana, where the centre-left won early elections held a couple of weeks ago. A poll out today has found that a majority would like Janez Potočnik, the the incumbent Environment Commissioner, to stay on.

Sweden: When it comes to gender equality, you can usually rely on the Swedes. Although nothing has been confirmed, EurActiv reported recently that Cecilia Malmström, the current liberal Commissioner for Home Affairs, might be able to continue even if Sweden elects a centre-left government in September's general elections as looks likely.

Our quick headcount reveals that in addition to Vera Jourova from the Czech Republic, we anticipate Juncker can potentially count on another five women (from Italy, Belgium, Portugal, Poland and Sweden) which would only put him on six - still well short of the target. Possibly MEPs could accept a lower number if a woman were also appointed as President of the European Council but not this low. 

If the European Parliament were to follow through on its threat to veto the entire Commission it would set up an unprecedented row with member states, some of whom would have to back down over their preferred choice of Commissioner (although the UK would probably be safe given the appointment of Baroness Ashton to the current Commission).

Normally when the EP generates these kinds of threats and ultimatums (like over the MFF last year) some kind of backroom deal is usually stitched up allowing everyone to save face but it is increasingly hard to see where Juncker will get enough woman from to placate the European Parliament.

Why not shrink the European Commission?

The online edition of German weekly Der Spiegel reports on "secret" plans by EU heads of state and government to stick to the 'one country, one EU Commissioner' principle, despite the number of Commissioners being set to rise to 28 following Croatia's entry in July.

Under the Lisbon Treaty, from November 2014, the number of Commissioners is supposed to correspond to two-thirds of member states, but national governments can agree to keep things as they are by unanimous decision. Der Spiegel estimates that keeping 28 Commissioners instead of 19 would come at an extra cost to European taxpayers of at least €13.5 million a year. So why, the article asks, are Germany, France and the UK keen to keep one Commissioner per country?

A couple of points need to be made here.

• The plans are hardly a secret. Going back to the days of the second Irish referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, Ireland was given reassurances that the 'one country, one EU Commissioner' principle would stay (see the conclusions of the June 2009 European Council summit). Also, a European Council decision on the subject was drafted last October - and only needs to be rubber-stamped by EU leaders (see here).

• In the UK, Parliament has already cleared the draft decision for approval via the European Union (Approvals) Act 2013.

That being said it is increasingly hard to defend the growing size of the EU Commission, not least because it gets increasingly difficult to find a credible portfolio for everyone. To accommodate for Croatia's entry, for instance, the Health and Consumer Protection portfolio will be split into two separate posts.

The big question is, would it be so bad if the number of Commissioners was reduced and the proliferation of Commission DGs slim-lined into more rational departments?

True, smaller memebr states may take offence (larger ones like the UK would virtually be guaranteed a Commissioner). However, member states without a Commissioner for one rotation period could be given deputy Commissioners instead. Surely, there would be more influence to be had as Deputy Commissioner for Internal Market than as Commissioner for Education, Culture, Multilingualism and Youth?

Nevertheless, EU leaders look set to rubber-stamp the 'one country, one Commissioner' decision - so we'll continue to have 28 EU Commissioners after 2014. At the very least, if we are going to have an extra Commissioner, the European Commission should be obliged to find savings so net spending does not increase. Our report on reforming the EU budget from last June included some suggestions.