EU top jobs: will Matteo Renzi and Mrs. Tusk get their way?

Herman waves goodbye to the European
Council Presidency - who will succeed him?

As we laid out in our flash analysis yesterday, the outcome of tomorrow's EU 'top jobs' summit is looking increasingly predictable. Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi's efforts to force his Foreign Minister Federica Mogherini into the High Representative post look set to pay off (with Merkel deciding to keep her powder dry for the almighty scrap over the Economic and Monetary Affairs portfolio). Spanish Europe Minister Íñigo Méndez de Vigo this morning tweeted that Mogherini is the "clear favourite" to take over from Baroness Ashton.

Hence, the flip side of the High Representative post going to the relatively dovish Italy seems to be the European Council President post going to a Central and Eastern European member state, with Poland's Donald Tusk (who has been officially endorsed by David Cameron), Latvia's Valdis Dombrovskis and Estonia's Andrus Ansip all in the mix. Tusk himself is staying tight-lipped, with the Polish government's spokeswoman this morning claiming that he had not yet made up his mind - a notable change of emphasis from Tusk's previous outright denials. Somewhat amusingly, Gazeta Wyborcza reports that the person responsible for potentially changing the Polish Prime Minister's mind is...his wife. Mrs Tusk allegedly thinks the post will mean "[more] prestige, [more] money and less pressure."

Of course, with it being the EU, a last minute surprise cannot be completely ruled out, and as in 2009 we could end up with some completely unexpected names that had not been on the radar. However, given the severity of developments in Ukraine - and also in the Middle East - there will be pressure on EU leaders to take concrete measures instead of wrangling about personalities.

EU leaders will also debate the allocation of key posts within the Commission, and Cameron will be pushing for the UK nominee Lord Hill to get an important economic post like internal market or competition, although these are not set to be announced at least until September 8th.

To follow tomorrow's developments live make sure to stay tuned to @OpenEurope, @LondonerVince and @pswidlicki.

Are things heading towards a showdown on the new EU foreign policy chief?

UPDATE (18:20) - The FT's Peter Spiegel and Alex Barker are reporting that Belgium's Karel De Gucht, currently serving as EU Trade Commissioner, could be a late entry into the race for High Representative.

Like former Estonian Prime Minister Andrus Ansip (see below), De Gucht is a member of the liberal ALDE family - that has joined the 'grand coalition' supporting Juncker in the European Parliament and now looks to be asking for something in return.

ORIGINAL BLOG POST (17:07)

EU leaders will meet in Brussels tomorrow to get on with the assignment of the remaining top jobs. Priority will probably be given to the appointment of the EU's new foreign policy chief (aka High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy).

Italian Foreign Minister Federica Mogherini is still regarded as the frontrunner for the job. However, things may not go as smoothly as initially thought. Sources close to European Commission President-elect Jean-Claude Juncker have told Italian news agency ANSA that "ten-eleven [EU] countries" are currently against Mogherini's appointment.

The sources didn't name any names, but it is understood that Eastern EU member states are particularly reluctant, since they believe Italy did not take a hard enough stance against Russia during the Ukraine crisis.

The Lisbon Treaty establishes that, similarly to the European Commission President, the High Representative is appointed by EU leaders under qualified majority. And Italian Europe Minister Sandro Gozi has made clear Italy is prepared to go to a vote. He said:

"[The appointment of] Juncker is part of an agreement whereby the High Representative goes to the socialists." 

"Juncker has been designated by [qualified] majority. No-one ever raised objections [against Mogherini] with us. If there were any, that would mean the High Representative will also be designated by majority."

Therefore, things may be heading towards another showdown. This time, though, the outcome of the vote could be a lot more uncertain. A group of ten or eleven countries (very likely to include Poland, a qualified majority heavyweight) would have good chances of success in forming a 'blocking minority' to reject Mogherini's appointment. That would be a blow for Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, who seems to be investing a good deal of political capital trying to secure a post that he considers as of great prestige. But it could also shift the balance in the distribution of the other top jobs - notably the Presidency of the European Council.

Mogherini is from a centre-left party. This means her appointment would make it less likely for Danish Prime Minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt, another centre-left politician, to succeed to Herman Van Rompuy as European Council President. However, this argument could no longer be valid if the new High Representative were to come from a centre-right party.

This would be the case with Bulgaria's Kristalina Georgieva, who looks to be gaining momentum as an alternative to Mogherini, although, as our dove-hawk axis showed, Bulgaria has so far also been quite soft on Russia.

Another option could be to offer the post of European Council President to someone from an Eastern European country in order to assuage opposition to Mogherini. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk could be an option, although with Polish domestic politics in a precarious state he may prefer to stay put. In that case, former Estonian Prime Minister Andrus Ansip - who has already been nominated as Estonia's next EU Commissioner - could be one to watch. Ansip's Estonian Reform Party belongs to the liberal ALDE group, that has joined the 'grand coalition' supporting Juncker in the European Parliament and would presumably be keen to get something substantial in return.  

In other words, a few surprises may come out of tomorrow's European Council. Stay tuned.

Which Commission post should the UK push for (clue: not energy)?

When it comes to EU top jobs, if you snooze you lose, as
Gordon Brown discovered to his cost in 2009

In a new briefing published this morning we argue that after the row over Jean-Claude Juncker’s appointment, David Cameron can regain the initiative by sending a heavy-hitter - and not simply someone who happens to be available - to Brussels with the view to securing a top job in the new European Commission. But here is the crucial question - what job should the UK push for?

Here are the key points from our briefing:

• Even though conventional political wisdom says that it’s impossible for the UK to bag the internal market portfolio, this is precisely what David Cameron should ask for, not least given that Germany, in particular, may want to give the UK a quick win in order to reduce the risk of Britain leaving the EU.

• To boost the chances of this happening, financial services could be split off from the internal market portfolio. However, in this scenario, the key is for this portfolio to go to a country that actually has a meaningful financial services industry, or the strategy could backfire.

• The second best outcome for the UK would be to secure the competition portfolio. competition is by far the most powerful DG, with the power to impose multi-million euro fines, prevent mergers and restructure banks. The portfolio would allow the UK to ensure a business-friendly environment and ensure fair competition within the single market by preventing discrimination against non-euro member states. It also establishes a political link to eurozone - it’s impossible for eurozone leaders not to engage with the Competition commissioner.

• The Trade portfolio is often mooted as a good one for the UK, and on substance it certainly is. Being able to conclude the EU-US free trade deal (TTIP) would be a great scalp. However, it is important to remember that Commissioners’ ability to impact EU policy is not limited to their own briefs; many policy proposals are debated within the College of Commissioners offering every Commissioner the opportunity of raising any concerns at an early stage. Just as the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs – currently held by Baroness Ashton - the Trade Commissioner is often absent from Brussels, thereby limiting the UK’s overall influence.

• The energy portfolio would be a relative disappointment for the UK. Yes, energy is a hugely important issue for Europe – and liberalised single market could help tremendously in both boosting energy security and keeping cost down. The Energy Commissioner could also play a key role in keeping the EU out of shale gas regulation – a key UK objective. However, the big push needed to change the political culture in Europe for this to happen won’t come from the European Commission and will take a long time to achieve anyway. This battle will first need to be won in national capitals. Taken together though, the Competition Commissioner probably has more sway over the EU energy market by being able to strike down attempts at creating national champions and new forms of intervention – as illustrated by the current stand-off between Germany and the Commission over Berlin’s rebate for energy intensive industries from its domestic renewable surcharges.

• Arguably, the social affairs brief would be better than the energy portfolio given how hugely important the rules on access to benefits for EU migrants are for the wider debate in the UK.

Just as important as the UK’s portfolio is the distribution of other key portfolios among reform-minded countries like the Netherlands and Sweden. Cameron needs to be far cleverer than Gordon Brown was in 2009, when France got internal market and Romania agriculture. This won’t be easy though. Having lost out on one of the three ‘top jobs’, France could push for either the competition or internal market brief. However, if France keeps the internal market, financial services should be split off as well.

Finally, the appointment of the new President of the European Council will also be crucial – in some ways just as significant as that of the Commission President – given that this will be the person in charge of brokering Cameron’s negotiations with other heads of state and government.

It's certainty all to play for.