Heads begin to roll in aftermath of European election shock

As might be expected after some shocking showings in the European Parliament (EP) elections, the heads have begun to roll – and rightly so, some would say.

The most high profile resignation so far is that of the Spanish opposition Socialist leader Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba (pictured) who stepped down yesterday after his party’s vote share dropped to 23% from 39% in the previous EP election. His decision is not exactly a surprise as many have been scratching their heads over the opposition’s lack of penetration despite numerous opportunities including (but not limited to) the Spanish economic malaise, austerity and Partido Popular’s top level corruption scandal. Where the party goes from here remains to be seen but with the rise of regional (particularly Catalan) parties and the new Podemos movement (see our profile here) the party needs to reassert itself as the primary opposition.

Similarly, a poor showing by the Romanian opposition party saw its leader Crin Antonescu resign along with all the party’s executive bureau. Interestingly, the party has also voted to switch from the liberal ALDE grouping in the EP to the centre-right EPP.

Meanwhile, in Ireland, Labour leader Eamon Gilmore jumped before he was pushed after his party secured barely 7% of the vote – likely paying the price for being the junior coalition partner during a difficult period of government (similar to Lib Dems in the UK or PASOK in Greece). This paves the way for a cabinet reshuffle, but again his replacement is also still unclear.

Other scalps include Igor Lukšič, President of the Slovenian Social Democrats, who has bitten the bullet and stepped down, as well as the leader of the Hungarian Socialists, Tibor Szanyi, who offered his resignation (subsequently accepted) after his party was comfortably beaten by the neo-fascist Jobbik.

There could still be more to follow as the dust settles. But more importantly than those who have lost their heads is for those that just clung on to theirs to get the message and begin pushing for some serious reform across Europe and offering a clear alternative to those who still do not.

The 2014-2020 EU budget: The deal that never was?

After the umpteenth round of talks on the next long-term EU budget between negotiators from the Irish Presidency, the European Parliament and the European Commission, Ireland's Deputy Prime Minister Eamon Gilmore announced yesterday,

"We have concluded negotiations on the EU's multi-annual budget for the next seven years [2014-2020]. I have reached an agreement with the European Parliament's chief negotiator. We have agreed a package that we are both going to recommend to our respective institutions...This is a balanced package that addresses all four of the issues identified by the European Parliament as important for the EU budget." 

In exchange for agreeing (through gritted teeth) to a historic cut in overall spending from the 2007-2013 budget period, MEPs would secure concessions on "more flexibility" between spending areas and annual budgets, plus a mandatory 'mid-term review' of the long-term budget in 2016. There was also an agreement on "a method for carrying forward discussions" on direct taxes for the EU budget - whatever that means - but no binding commitment.

All sorted? Not quite. Alain Lamassoure, the French centre-right MEP who is heading the European Parliament's negotiating team, told a rather different story to AFP,

"Some members of the European Parliament's delegation are very cautious [on the outcome of the talks], and it's for this reason that I couldn't commit the European Parliament."

The leaders of the main political groups in the European Parliament will meet on Tuesday to decide whether or not they are happy with the latest compromise on the table. In other words, it seems the Irish Presidency was so eager to end its term with a landmark deal that it got a bit ahead of itself.

And not without consequences. German MEP Reimer Böge, from Angela Merkel's CDU party, resigned as the EPP rapporteur's on the 2014-2020 EU budget this morning in protest against what he described as "nothing more than a manipulation" from the Irish Presidency. According to him,

"The European Parliament's negotiating team last night decided not to continue the negotiations, if they can be called such at all, and submit the texts to the European Parliament."

A 'deal' that turned out not to be a deal after all. We can only wonder what ordinary citizens make of all this posturing, brinkmanship and back-room horse-trading.

Moreover, several important questions remain unanswered. How would this 'revision' work exactly, and what would it involve? Are MEPs prepared to drop their demand for it to take place under QMV and not unanimity? What's the point of having a non-binding discussion on 'own resources', given that there's no appetite for direct EU taxes across the bloc?

Ultimately, MEPs should be careful not to overplay their hand in seeking concessions - if push came to shove would they really veto the agreement painstakingly negotiated by EU leaders?

Things should become clearer next week. For the moment, it's worth keeping in mind that, whatever the outcome of the negotiations with MEPs, the deal will have to be endorsed by EU member states by unanimity - meaning that the UK would still have a veto over it.