The UK's Lord Hill is approved as EU financial services Commissioner - What next?

The final discussions and votes in the European Parliament's committees over the nominees for the new European Commission are currently taking place with most of the results already in.

As expected, Lord Hill has been approved as new EU Commissioner for financial services by 42 to 16 votes. The vote was on his actual portfolio, meaning that despite some speculation, he wasn't stripped of any of the responsibilities (i.e. ones relating to the banking union).

What does this mean for the UK? 

As we argued here, the appointment of Lord Hill as EU Commissioner for financial services is a victory for the UK - but not a make-or-break issue in the wider context of David Cameron's EU renegotiation strategy. The key negotiations will remain between national governments. We would also caution against drawing too much from Lord Hill's comments in front of the European Parliament - as we noted, this is ultimately an exercise in telling the European Parliament what they wanted to hear and trying to please everyone. The key will be to judge Lord Hill on what he does and how he works with the likes of Frans Timmermans in trying to change the culture of the Commission. Clearly, however, it will be important for Hill to not forget to mind public opinion at home as, for better or worse, he will be seen as some sort of a bellwether for the UK's approach.

What are the other verdicts of the day?

As for the other nominees, Finland's Jyrki Katainen was approved for his role as Vice-President for Jobs, Growth, Investment and Competitiveness by 98 to 52. A surprisingly close vote, possibly reflecting a weaker than expected performance in the hearings from someone of whom many had high expectations but also the fact that he failed to convince the left that he is no longer an arch proponent of the austerity approach.

In spite of all the controversies about his ties to the oil industry and his declaration of financial interests, Spain's candidate Miguel Arias Cañete has been approved as Energy Commissioner by 77 to 48 votes, but may face supervision by Commission Vice-President Frans Timmermans.

France's Pierre Moscovici also got the green light from MEPs as new Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs, Taxation and Customs Union by 31 to 15 votes. There may be some less than enthusiastic reactions in the German media tomorrow, so keep an eye out for our daily press summary. 

As expected, MEPs have rejected Slovenia's Alenka Bratušek by an overwhelming 112 to 13 votes. Bratušek had been proposed as Vice-President for Energy Union, but has been judged 'not fit' to be a Commissioner, meaning that she will have to be replaced.

The vote on Valdis Dombrovskis will take place later tonight, but he's also expected to go through.

Therefore, Bratušek is the only real 'victim' of the hearings. In addition, MEPs have also demanded that the Hungarian nominee, Tibor Navracsics, be given a different portfolio. Navracsics had been proposed as Commissioner for Education, Culture, Youth and Citizenship.

What happens next?

• The priority will be to find a substitute for Bratušek. At the moment, it's unclear who will replace her, and how long the process will take. Slovenia had put forward four nominees. The list of names included another woman, centre-left MEP Tanja Fajon. However, Fajon may not be seen as senior enough for a vice-presidency. Furthermore, she comes from a different political group (the European Socialists and Democrats, S&D). Bratušek belongs to the liberal ALDE group, which is likely to demand that she be replaced with someone from the same political family. Over the past hour, the name of Violeta Bulc, currently serving as Slovenia's Deputy Prime Minister, has also emerged as a possible candidate to replace Bratušek.

• Once Slovenia puts forward a new candidate, and provided that he/she gets the go-ahead from the European Parliament, there are broadly three possible scenarios:   

1) Timmermans becomes Cañete's supervisor: It has been reported that Frans Timmermans could, in addition to his current portfolio, also become responsible for 'sustainable development'. This means he would de facto supervise Cañete, and would also probably involve scrapping the post of Vice-President for Energy Union - meaning that the new Slovenian nominee would be handed a 'lighter' portfolio. As per Navracsics, he could perhaps keep the Education portfolio while being stripped of the Culture and Citizenship briefs.

2) Mini-reshuffle: Some reports have also suggested that Slovakia’s Maroš Šefčovič could become the Vice-President for Energy Union. Navracsics would become Commissioner for Transport and Space, and the new Slovenian nominee would get the Education portfolio. An alternative could be to make Austria’s Johannes Hahn the Vice-President for Energy Union, with Navracsics becoming Enlargement Commissioner and the new Slovenian nominee again taking the Education portfolio.

3) Tweaking portfolios: Another solution would be to give Navracsics, as in the first scenario, a ‘downgraded’ portfolio (i.e. without the Culture and Citizenship briefs), and keeping the new Slovenian nominee as Vice-President for Energy Union. However, the concerns over the seniority of the person and the ability to provide oversight of Cañete would remain significant.

• The European Parliament's final vote on the whole Commission is scheduled for 22 October. It may be pushed back if finding a substitute for Bratušek takes too long, but that looks unlikely.

• The new Commission will enter office on 1 November.

Things are progressing in a broadly positive way for the UK and the wider EU reform agenda. However, whether the Commission will in the end deliver reform - and whether it can function well internally given the new structure - very much remains to be seen.

Hill likely to be approved but Bratusek down as Juncker Commission edges closer

Hill's hearing was less of a duel than expected

Following another long day of hearings the make-up of the Juncker Commission is becoming clearer.

The UK’s Commissioner-designate Lord Hill had his second hearing in front of the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee today and by almost all accounts performed well. While he was at ease and fluid as in his first appearance, he was importantly much clearer and more specific on the details of what he would like to achieve (for example on capital markets and banking union). This, combined with his extensive written answers, means that there is no grounding for rejecting Hill on content.

There were, of course, those who questioned his impartiality and independence but as we pointed out here, these complaints seemed to have little to do with Hill himself (who has few direct connections to the City left) and more with the fact he was from the UK. As liberal MEP Sylvie Goulard said:

“He took the exercise very seriously…We think it is unfair just to reject him because of his passport.”

Furthermore, compared to other Commissioners (Spain’s Miguel Arias Cañete springs to mind) Hill has far less recent and direct contact with his industry in question. His approval is now widely expected tomorrow.

Equally Cañete looks set to survive following a significant amount of political wrangling with the centre-right EPP sticking to its guns to ensure that the centre-left S&D does not try to block him – mostly by threatening to hold up the approval of France’s Pierre Moscovici, who incidentally also looks set to be confirmed.

As we always said though, things are looking less rosy for Slovenia’s Alenka Bratusek, who struggled on content during her appearance and also faces accusations of corruption over her nomination process. In fact it seems as part of the cross-party deal, she is likely to be rejected, meaning a new representative will need to be found for the post of Vice President for Energy Union.

Finding a new nominee for this position will be tricky not least because Bratusek is an experienced politician from a newer member state and contributed to the much debated gender balance of the new Commission. One option would be for Slovenian to put forward another one of its four nominees such as Tanja Fajon MEP, although she is unlikely to be considered high profile enough for the VP slot, meaning some reshuffling will still be needed (the FT has a plausible option here).

The other hearings from today went more or less as expected with the Netherlands Frans Timmermans particularly impressing, while Finland’s Jyrki Katainen produced a solid display in an area he has extensive experience in.

With Czech Vera Jourova now confirmed after being held up, the main wrangling will be over where to put Hungary’s Tibor Navracsics and who will fill Bratusek’s role. Much of this is expected to be decided tomorrow although with no firm timeline. One final issue which remains to be resolved is the exact split of powers between Commissioners and how the VPs will work with the standard Commissioners. Jean-Claude Juncker may have to provide further detail to the EP on this before he gets the final OK.

However, in the end, after pushing its luck earlier on the European Parliament now seems to have regained its control and sense of perspective.

Juncker bitten by the hand that fed him as the European Parliament undermines his Commission

Juncker and Schulz in happier times...

The letter from European Parliament (EP) President Martin Schulz to European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has now been published in full and contains an extensive list of questions for the UK’s Lord Hill, the Czech Republic’s Vera Jourová and Hungary’s Tibor Navracsics who have all been invited back for some form of second hearing early next week (whether or not these will be ‘full public hearings’ again remains to be seen).

While the EP is certainly entitled to ask questions and has a role to play in the vetting process, we think the whole situation is getting a bit out of hand and that the Commissioner-designates are being set an almost impossible task. Let us outline a few reasons why.

1) Politicians expected to have the knowledge of technocrats. The EP was the driving force behind increasing the politicisation of the Commission, mostly through the Spitzenkandidaten process. With a more political Commission those inside will ultimately be more politicised, as will decision making. Nearly all the candidates are politicians with little technical experience. However, the EP is subjecting them to a level of scrutiny which no national incoming minister would be expected to pass on a brief they have in most cases never overseen. They seem more akin to the hearings a new central banker would face – the arch technocrats.

At the same however, MEPs are very intolerant of any Commissioners holding – as they see it – the ‘wrong’ political views meaning nominees have to tread a tightrope and try to appease a range of competing interests, e.g. promoting trade while protecting social standards, maintaining budgetary discipline while allowing for ‘flexibility’, or cutting energy costs while pursing green policies. This has led to accusations of a lack of coherence on the part of some Commissioners. This confusion over the Commission’s role is largely of the EP’s own making and sets an almost impossible task for the candidates.

2) Trying to force Commissioners to commit to policies ex-ante. This is simply a bad way to make policy. Sure, the candidates should outline key priorities and ideas, however, asking them whether they will or won’t pursue numerous policy proposals or will rule out certain actions over their entire five-year term seems to be overstepping the mark. Ultimately, the proposals the Commission will take forward are the result of a combined decision with the EP and member states and will be subject to economic and political circumstance.

3) The EP has a legislative role in trialogue negotiations, not in these hearings. Following on from the above point, the EP does not have a right to try to restrict the policy options of the Commission ex-ante. The EP has a role in the trialogue negotiations around legislation and can influence and change Commission proposals there. It should not double up this role by trying to tie the hands of new Commissioners by forcing them to take a policy stance before they have even had a chance to get an overview of their brief.

4) Hearings caught up in political games. There is no doubt that the hearings have become embroiled in political games, mostly between the centre right EPP and centre left S&D. While political trade-offs and negotiations are expected, these should not spill over into the public hearings and hamper the assessment of the competence of Commissioners.

5) Judging Commissioners on different and conflicting criteria. It is also obvious that there is no clear consensus on what basis to judge Commissioners. Some have been opposed on the basis of political allegiances, some on the basis of their nationality and some on their experience/knowledge (or a mix of the above). This picking and choosing of criteria once again undermines the process and makes it impossible for the Commissioners to know on what level they are being assessed. This has led to attempts to try to please everyone further worsening the scrutiny process.

The Commission has always been about a balance between political and technical expertise – it both proposes laws and is responsible for upholding them. There are legitimate questions that can be asked about potential conflicts of interest and a basic grasp of the policy issues at hand nut the EP has hugely overstepped the mark by seeking to pin down Commissioners to particular political agendas.

The Spitzenkandidaten process was all about establishing greater political control over the Commission’s agenda (as we warned). The great mistake that EU leaders made over the appointment of Juncker (we’re not talking about Juncker himself, but giving into the EP over the process) has clearly had the effect of emboldening MEPs further. The Commission – and now the nominees – are the piggy in the middle in the increasingly fraught power battle between national governments and the EP. Throw in a large dose of intra-EP politicking and individual egos, and it is a recipe for chaos and one that is likely to further distance the EU institutions from electorates across Europe, particularly if the EP makes the running despite itself hardly securing a vote of confidence in May’s elections.

Updated: UK Commissioner called back for second hearing – what happens now?

A couple of developments since we posted the original blog below.

Importantly, the European Parliament’s Economics Committee failed to reach an agreement over Pierre Moscovici and has delayed a decision on whether to approve him or not until 9.30pm CET tonight. Given his clear knowledge and experience in the area as a former French Finance Minister, the objection is clearly being driven by a fundamental split between the EPP (led by the CDU) and the S&D (led by the French socialists) over whether he is the right man for the job given his political allegiances and the fact France has repeatedly missed the deficit targets agreed with the European Commission over the past few years.

As regards Lord Hill, @Brunobrussels points out that a letter will be sent by European Parliament President Martin Schulz to Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker outlining some key questions for the UK’s nominee. It is unclear exactly what these questions will include, but the focus will be on his knowledge of issues such as the banking union, Eurobonds and financial regulation in general. There may also be questions around exactly what will be under his purview and his relationship with the Vice-Presidents. It also seems that concerns over Hungarian Commissioner Tibor Navracsics are growing, as we warned here. Overall, the process is at risk of descending into in-fighting and horse trading between the EPP and S&D (if it hasn’t already) – and Lord Hill has certainly got caught up in that.

 ********************* Original blog below **********************

UK Commissioner designate Lord Hill yesterday faced the European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary affairs committee which has to judge if he is suitable for the proposed role of Commissioner for Financial Services, Financial Stability and Capital Markets Union. 

While Hill went out of his way to charm MEPs, in what the FT terms an “unprecedented move” the committee has recalled Hill for a second hearing early next week (likely Monday), reportedly due to concerns over his lack of detailed knowledge of the brief.

Having watched the hearing it was clear that Hill struggled on the minute details of some of the more technical questions from MEPs, some of whom have been dealing with this area for years. However, even some members of other UK parties have come to Hill’s defence. Labour MEP Richard Corbett wrote on his blog: 

“When all is said and done, he performed far better than many of the other candidate Commissioners.”

 Former Lib Dem MEP and Chair of the EP Econ committee Sharon Bowles tweeted this morning: 

“If you only give commissioners designate 2 weeks to prepare, on sensitive dossiers second hearings/written follow up inevitable.”

Having watched the other Commissioner hearings Hill is certainly not alone in struggling to come up to speed in such a short time. For example, the centre-right EPP group has issued a stark criticism of Commissioner-Designate for Regional Policy Corina Creţu for failing to provide details on how she will tackle the build-up of delayed cohesion payments. Employment Commissioner designate Marianne Thyssen has also taken flak for not knowing details of the posted workers directive, while proposed Digital Commissioner Gunther Oettinger was criticised for being too vague on surveillance, net neutrality and other specifics of his brief. In short, many Commissioners are struggling to tread the fine line of trying to please all sides in the European Parliament (thereby sticking to vague and uncontroversial answers).

Furthermore, let’s not forget that the outgoing Internal Market Commissioner Michel Barnier – who oversees financial services – had little to no experience of the area before he took over the post having been Agriculture Minister in France.

What happens next?

Hill’s second hearing will likely be early next week. Following the hearing another committee vote/discussion will be held on whether to approve him. These ‘votes’ are informal since the EP does not have direct say over each Commissioner, or which roles they fulfil, but only over the Commission as a whole. There are a few different scenarios over how this could play out:

1) The committee eventually approves Hill: The EP will then eventually have to decide whether to approve the whole Commission. As we have pointed out before, it seems likely that the EP will request that at least one or two of the suggested Commissioners are replaced (if only to flex its muscles). There will then be a negotiation until the EP and Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker (and member states) reach an agreement.

2) The committee does not give Hill approval but he goes ahead anyway: Since the EP cannot veto specific people or roles, it is possible they could reach a deal on the overall Commission set up even without explicitly endorsing Hill. This would certainly hamper Hill in his role since he will be forced to engage with and report to MEPs, however, it should not stop him from fulfilling his brief.

3) The committee does not approve of Hill: In this instance, the committee would fail to approve Hill even after a second hearing and would request he be replaced when they negotiate with Juncker over the final approval of the whole Commission. This would be a difficult negotiation and would raise tensions between the UK and EU. Furthermore, even Cameron were to nominate someone else, it's not clear any UK candidate with direct financial experience/expertise would be more in line with EP thinking and sensitivities. Either way this would be a huge snub and would certainly play into the hands of UKIP and others who want the UK to leave the EU.

4) A re-shuffle: Hill is only one of several candidates who failed to impress MEPs - indeed none of the nominees so far have sailed through, with Spain's Miguel Arias Cañete and Hungary's Tibor Navracsics, both EPP, in trouble (as we predicted) and Slovenia's Alenka Bratusek also facing a tough inquisition. Meanwhile, the EPP could retaliate by blocking one S&D's nominees, with France's Pierre Moscovici the most likely victim. As such, the FT reports there are rumours in Brussels that a "major reshuffle" could be on the cards with the same personnel being moved to 'less problematic' posts. There is a precedent - in 2004, Barroso agreed to swap around a couple of his Commissioners to appease MEPs. Such an approach would fit with the concerns of MEPs which seem to be more centred around the UK having the financial services brief rather than Hill himself.

However, taking financial services away from Hill (even if he is compensated with another big post like Internal Market or Competition) would also be seen as huge slap in the face for Cameron, the City of London, and the UK as a whole. This would probably be the worst outcome in terms of trying to keep the UK in the EU and would play on many of the concerns raised by UKIP.

Ultimately, the most likely scenario remains that Lord Hill is approved albeit with added scrutiny. That said, it seems almost certain the Parliament will request some changes, as it has almost always done, it remains an open question upon whom they will ultimately focus their attention.

European Parliament hearings of Commission nominees: Will MEPs claim any notable scalps?

Will Juncker's Commission survive unscathed?
(picture via @Gruene_Europa)

On Monday we will see the first hearings of European Commission nominees by the European Parliament committees responsible for their respective policy areas (full calendar here). The UK nominee, Lord Hill, will ironically be grilled by MEPs at the same time as David Cameron will be giving his closing speech to the Conservative party conference. 

MEPs are not able to strike down individual Commissioners but they do have a veto over the Commission as a whole and have in the past used this leverage to force member states to withdraw nominees that they did not like; Rocco Butiglione in 2004 and Rumiana Jeleva in 2009 (although Jeleva also faced considerable domestic opposition). There has also been a lot of speculation that one or more nominees to the Juncker Commission could also be 'taken out' by MEPs (Alex Barker of the FT has a good round-up here). There will certainly be a hell of a lot of posturing - but are any of the candidates at genuine risk? We asses the most 'problematic' candidates below:

Lord Hill - Financial Services (UK)

There has been a lot of speculation that MEPs will target Lord Hill (and some have already made it clear they will) but this is based less on reservations about his character or ability, and more to do with his record as a lobbyist, concerns about the UK being allocated the sensitive financial services portfolio, and hostility to the Conservatives' EU policies more specifically. While MEPs will not give Lord Hill an easy ride it is highly unlikely that he will face any major problems given that this would be seen as a huge and unnecessary provocation towards the UK (with no chance of Cameron backing down and putting forward somebody else). Juncker has further lessened the risk by transferring the contentious issue of bankers' bonuses from Lord Hill's remit into that of Vera Jourova, the nominee for the Justice brief. 

Prospects for survival = Strong

Pierre Moscovici - Economic and Monetary Affairs (France)

It is no secret that the appointment of former French Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici to this key portfolio is far from popular among conservatives in the European Parliament. Can Moscovici, whose country is consistently failing to meet the its EU deficit reduction targets, be credible enough to police eurozone countries’ budget policies? However, given that Moscovici will be effectively man-marked by two fiscally hawkish Vice-Presidents (Finland's Jyrki Katainen and Latvia's Valdis Dombrovskis), and also that it would be hugely unprecedented to reject such a high profile candidate from such a large member state (particularly given Francois Hollande's recent problems), he should be safe. The only serious threat to Moscovici would arise if the centre-left S&D group tried to veto one of the centre-right EPP candidates (see below) and the EPP decided to retaliate, and they've hinted that in that case they would target Moscovici. 

Prospects for survival = Strong

Karmenu Vella - Environment, Martime Affairs and Fisheries (Malta) 

European Voice suggests that Vella could also be in trouble as MEPs are unhappy at Juncker's decision to merge environment and fisheries and to give Vella a mandate for 'deregulation' in these areas, and also because Malta's track record in implementing EU environmental laws is poor. However, Vella himself is not responsible for the design of the Commission and it should suffice for him to assure MEPs he will give both parts of his role equal consideration. He may also face some awkward questions about long-standing allegations of "political thuggery, tax evasion and corruption" in his time in Maltese politics, but these have never been proved and so it is unlikely he will be placed under serious pressure.

Prospects for survival = Strong

Tibor Navracsics - Education, Culture, Youth and Citizenship (Hungary)

Hungary's nominee was always going to be controversial due to the strained relations between the EU and the Hungarian government headed by Viktor Orban who has been accused of anti-democratic practices such as undermining media plurality and the independence of the judiciary - particularly sensitive given the portfolio Navracsics has been given. Is is clear that Navracsics will face a hostile audience but with the backing of the EPP it remains to be seen whether enough other MEPs will actively try to see him axed from the Commission; in that case any Orban nominee would surely prove unacceptable, and this would trigger a wider political crisis. Moreover, as a former University lecturer Navracsics seems well qualified for this post and so we think that, ultimately, he will be safe.

Prospects for survival = At risk 

Miguel Arias Cañete - Climate Action and Energy (Spain)

Spain’s Cañete will come under fire for a number of reasons. In fact, it'll be open season. Firstly, there is his alleged bias towards fossil fuels compared with renewables. Secondly, there are concerns about alleged conflicts of interest; Cañete has sold his shares in two Spanish oil companies but Green MEPs have complained to Juncker that Cañete’s “wife, son and brother in law all remain as either shareholders or board members of these companies.” Furthermore, it has also been estimated that, during his time as Spanish Agriculture Minister, Cañete’s wife, Micaela Domecq-Solis and her siblings received around €1.8m in EU farm subsidies (though the same accusation could also embarrass some MEPs on the Agriculture Committee). 

Cañete will also very likely face questions about some remarks, widely interpreted as sexist, that he made after a TV debate ahead of the European Parliament elections in May. He said, “The debate between a man and a woman is very complicated. If you abuse [your] intellectual superiority, it looks as if you’re a machista and are cornering a defenceless woman.” There are enough ingredients for a lively hearing but as with Navracsics, the support of the EPP and the fact that he is a heavyweight figure within Partido Popular may be enough to see him through. However, he's definitely on the front line. 

Prospects for survival = At risk 

Alenka Bratušek - Vice President for Energy Union (Slovenia)

Where to begin? Former Slovenian PM Alenka Bratušek is seen by many as the weakest link in the new Commission and faces a raft of challenges. For a start, she nominated herself for the role as acting PM even though her party (appropriately named the Alliance of Alenka Bratušek) received a drubbing in the preceding parliamentary elections, picking up only 4.3% of the votes. The new centre-left coalition has launched in inquiry into her auto-nomination and would like to replace her with Tanja Fajon, one of their own MEPs (which would preserve the Commission's gender ratio).

Moreover, she has been allocated a hugely significant and sensitive role - Vice-President responsible for 'Energy Union' - despite having little experience in that area. As a member of the liberal ALDE group she lacks the protection of the two big centre-right and centre-left blocs (although ALDE's has joined the 'grand coalition' in the European Parliament). Her saving grace might be that not there will not be enough appetite in the European Parliament to reject the Commission outright, but if anyone will be substituted it is likely to be her.  

Prospects for survival = At risk

We will be covering the most significant hearings live so make sure to follow us on twitter @Open Europe.

Lord Hill is the EU's new financial services Commissioner - but what is his remit and who does he report to?

With the future of the UK seemingly hanging by a thread it is understandable that events north of the border are dominating attention, but today's announcement of the new European Commission also has far-reaching consequences for the future of the UK's EU membership and the EU itself.

As we set out in our flash analysis, the appointment of Lord Hill to the key financial services portfolio (pending approval by MEPs) is a win for the UK, and the general reformist outlook of the Commission, with other crucial posts (Internal Market and Competition) held by liberal, pro-free trade, non-eurozone countries, provides grounds for cautious optimism.

What will Lord Hill's portfolio include?

• Overseeing the creation of the banking union – a crucial policy for the eurozone but also one which threatens to split the EU into euro-ins and outs. In his new role, Lord Hill can ensure this does not happen. That being said, this is a very tricky role to manage (with numerous competing interests), especially for a non-eurozone country.
• Power to review the role of the European supervisory authorities, institutions which have been controversial in the UK since their creation.
• Responsibility for a 'Capital Markets Union'. While this remains vague it could be a good initiative for the UK since London is already the centre of European capital markets. Lord Hill can base the union around the single market rather than the eurozone.

As the charts below show, the Commission has also been re-organised with a series of policy clusters, with the UK being at the heart of all the major decisions relating to the single market, jobs and growth and the Eurozone. Each 'cluster' will be headed by a Vice-President, previously a largely meaningless role but now with additional agenda setting powers and the ability to stop legislative proposals from other Commissioners.

Lord Hill will 'report' to two Vice Presidents who will "steer and co-ordinate" depending on the issue at hand - the new "Jobs, Growth, Investment and Competitiveness" VP Jyrki Katainen and the "Euro and Social Dialogue" VP Valdis Dombrovskis (both of whom are former PMs). In terms of the two VPs, Dombrovskis is likely to supervise the banking union aspects of Lord Hill's post while Katainen will oversee the more single market aspects, although even here, there is plenty of scope for overlap.

Lord Hill's portfolio also has some overlap (and therefore potential conflict) with France's new Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Pierre Moscovici .The potential for Anglo-French clashes within the Commission is relatively limited since Moscovici will be primarily tasked with macroeconomic eurozone policies rather than financial markets, but one potentially fraught area could the be Financial Transaction Tax or a Common Consolidated Corporate Tax Base. Juncker has asked Moscovici to finalise negotiations over both.

It remains to be seen how the relationship between VPs and different clusters will work in practice, especially as Juncker himself has insisted that "In the new Commission, there are no first or second-class Commissioners", and since decisions in the College of Commissioners have traditionally been taken by a majority of all Commissioners in a secret vote. However, Juncker also made clear that the Vice-Presidents “can stop any initiative, including legislative initiatives” of other commissioners – effectively acting as “a filter”.

Time will tell how potential disputes play out or are resolved and to what extent the VPs can truly veto proposals. What is clear is that the relationship between these four men could be crucially important.

Martin Schulz's revenge: Will the European Parliament block the UK's EU Commissioner?

If you read our press summary this morning (if not, do sign up!) you would have seen - before anyone else outside Germany incidentally - that Lord Hill, the UK's nominee for EU Commissioner, is already at risk of becoming a victim of an increasingly assertive European Parliament.

Martin Schulz – the ‘European Commission Presidential candidate’ who was re-selected President of the European Parliament after his socialist group in the EP came second in the European elections - was made persona non grata by Labour in the run-up to the European elections.

He was seen as too federalist, and someone who would only give Ed Miliband additional headaches shortly after Labour ruled out an In/Out referendum. He’s had a rough ride in the UK over the Spitzenkandidaten, where he clashed head on with the Tories and most other British people. He may now take his revenge.

Speaking to Deutschlandfunk radio this morning, he said of Lord Hill:

"I cannot imagine that, with his radical anti-European views, provided that he has them, [Lord] Hill can get a majority in the European Parliament…It will become clear if Mr Hill approaches us without prejudice, and that will certainly influence whether or not he gets a majority."

The European Parliament cannot formally reject individual Commissioner-nominees, but can veto the entire European Commission. Therefore, MEPs have de facto 'blackmailing powers' to pick off individual nominees. Interestingly, Schulz added that a rejection of Lord Hill in such a way "cannot be ruled out".

In fairness, Schulz was asked a clearly leading question when making these comments:

"David Cameron has proposed the eurosceptic Jonathan Hill as [the UK's] next EU Commissioner, and [he's] a determined sceptic of the euro and the EU. Can one assume that the next EU Commission  will become significantly more eurosceptic, blocking things from the inside?"

So, is this posturing or is Schulz meaning business? Well, as for now, we should treat the comments with caution. Even if Schulz is serious, he will need to get a majority of MEPs to agree that Hill should be rejected on basis of "radical anti-European views, provided he has them". Hill isn't exactly on record spewing out Farage-type anti-EU slogans. The point about Lord Hill is that he's a very different type of political operator altogether: he's someone who strikes deals, rather than engaging in shouting matches or trading in platitudes.

Schulz will struggle to build a case on this one - not least since Lord Hill seems like exactly the type of pragmatic, deal-maker type person MEPs should like. Still, it's a strong statement from Schulz.

Who is Lord Hill? (The UK's new appointment to be the UK's EU Commissioner)

The most visited Wikipedia page from Brussels IP addresses today will be Lord Hill's - the UK's European Commissioner nominee. Lord Hill is currently the leader of the House of Lords.

We have previously argued that David Cameron should "send forth to Brussels the best he has." The reason is simple: reform is fundamental to the UK's EU membership so the UK should put forward its best candidate to secure one of the 'big jobs' in the Juncker Commission and maximise the chances of negotiating success on all levels.

In 2009 Gordon Brown made a serious mistake in coming late to the game and sending a little known Peer, Cathy Ashton (also leader of the House of Lords incidentally) and ended up with a job that nobody else wanted. Have the lessons been learnt? Well, Cameron certainly hasn't sent the guy with the highest profile, instead prioritising avoiding a by-election, but it's too early to tell whether Lord Hill will sink or swim. He could turn out great.

But who is Lord Hill?

Well he's certainly not a household name but has been in the Cabinet albeit as a Lord. Here is his biography:

• Conservative Research Department 1985-86 
• Special advisor to Rt Hon Kenneth Clarke at Department of Employment 
• DTI and Department of Health 1986-89 
• Lowe Bell Communications 1989-91 
• No 10 Policy Unit 1991-92 
• Political secretary to Prime Minister John Major 1992-94 
• Senior consultant Bell Pottinger Communications 1994-98 
• Director Quiller Consultants 1998-2010; (a part of Huntsworth Plc) 
• Under-secretary of state Department for Education 2010-13 
• Leader of the House of Lords and Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster 2013-2014

Beyond that it is reportedly that he unsuccessfully attempted to resign as a minister in 2012, and recently ruled himself out as a candidate for European Commissioner, saying when asked

"Non, non, non. First, I don't believe I'm going to be asked. Secondly, I like it here. I quite like it at home, in the British Isles."

That's not the first time a politician has said something similar and ended up in that very position, though. Lord Hill is definitely well connected in the PR industry and knows the Conservative party. He knows the political system and the art of political public relations. Plenty of people say he's a 'fixer' who can work the corridors in Brussels - something which Cathy Ashton wasn't able to (partly because of her job which involved long absences from Brussels). It's too early to jump to conclusions.