A Dutch election primer

Emile Roemer, leader of the Dutch Socialist Party

On 12 September, elections will take place in the Netherlands. Due to the country's traditional role as an ally to Germany in monetary affairs, they will be watched with close attention (and by coincidence the German Constitutional Court is due to rule on the ESM Treaty the same day).

What do the opinion polls say?

The latest opinion poll shows that caretaker Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s right-of-centre-liberal VVD party and the EU-critical left-wing Socialist Party would get the most votes, with each obtaining 34 seats in Parliament. Sniffing around third place are four parties: the social democratic PvdA (21), the Christian democratic CDA (16), Geert Wilders' PVV (14) and the left-liberal D66 (13). The Christian Union, which sits with the Tories in the ECR-group in the European Parliament, would get around 7 seats, and GreenLeft 4.

What are the coalition options? 

There are broadly two possibilities:

- Firstly, a centrist coalition might emerge from the VVD, PvdA and CDA. However, the polls suggest this currently falls a few seats short of the necessary majority. This coalition could be expanded to include D66, which would make for a eurofederalist formation, but this might not be convenient in the face of an EU-critical, although disparate, opposition composed of the Socialist Party and Wilders' PVV.  Alternatively, the seats of the moderately EU-critical Christian Union might be sufficient but then the government would only have a narrow majority, if the current poll results materialise.

- A second option, the preferred solution of the Dutch social democrats (PvdA), would be a government with the Socialist Party, CDA, and GreenLeft. This would only narrowly obtain a majority and probably also need the support of D66. While the CDA would need to be convinced, it is questionable whether a government led by what many consider a far-left party is a viable political option in the Netherlands. The Socialist Party started off as a Maoist formation (a bit like the current European Commission President) but has moderated its tone and could now be described as left wing populist. Its current leader, Emile Roemer, who vehemently opposes the fiscal pact, has repeatedly warned that he won't pay any EU fines for breaching budget deficit limits, saying he would "put his body on the line".

Other options are theoretically possible, but unlikely: the divisions between the VVD and Socialists look too deep, while it's unlikely that the VVD would choose a new deal with Geert Wilders, after the previous  Dutch government fell due to Wilders' opposition to austerity. The most likely outcome remains some kind of centrist government, possibly after several months of negotiation (last time around, it took four months to form a government).

What are the campaign themes?

Unavoidably, Europe is high on the list. The last government fell over EU-imposed austerity and it is no surprise that Socialist leader Roemer has raised it as an issue. Roemer has also warned that any transfers of power to the EU would need to be agreed by referendum (in a similar vein the UK's 'referendum lock'). Things have been moving in a more EU-critical direction for a few years now. Only 58% of Dutch voters are currently in favour of EU membership, a stunning drop from 76% in May 2010. Two thirds of Dutch voters want to see less of their cash going to the EU budget. Last, but certainly not least, there is general discontent about the eurozone bailouts, with  at least half of Dutch citizens saying in May that they wanted to see a stop on money being sent to Greece and a majority opposing the eurozone's permanent bailout fund, the ESM.

Another important issue is pensions, following reports that cuts very likely will need to be made. Dutch pension rules are also under threat from upcoming EU initiatives such as Solvency II, which are being fiercely opposed by the Dutch government.  

Economic policy is, as always, high on the agenda. Dutch PM Mark Rutte entered the campaign this week, promising tax cuts in order to reward those who work, in a bid to present his party as the alternative to voters who are scared of the SP and draw left vs. right battle lines.

What's the political context?

Much of what's happening in the Netherlands today is still seen in the light of the murder of Pim Fortuyn in 2002. The Pim Fortuyn List, certainly started to break down the consensus in Dutch politics on issues such as immigration and the EU. Of course, a lot of has happened since: a range of unstable coalition governments, the no-vote in the referendum on the European Constitution in 2005, the rise and influence of Geert Wilders.

The sluggish Dutch economy also appears to have become somewhat decoupled from the German economy. There is particular concern about the housing market.

What will be the consequences for the EU and the euro?

Dutch daily De Volkskrant ran an article earlier this month noting that the current Dutch government has increasingly been playing EU hard-ball behind the scenes, under the headline "European patience with the annoying Dutch is almost up". An EU diplomat was quoted as saying, "the problem is not that the Netherlands is obstructing, the problem is that the Netherlands is almost always obstructing".

Given that around a third or more of the Dutch electorate now seem prepared to vote for more or less EU-critical parties, that isn't going to change anytime soon. Still, it will make a big difference whether the Socialist Party will make it into government or not, and perhaps more symbolically, whether it will become the biggest party in the country. Both remain uncertain.

However, it is clear that the consequences could be far reaching, especially for Chancellor Merkel if one of her most loyal allies starts to make things even more politically fraught at the level of the eurozone.

Meanwhile, in Italy...

Italian daily La Repubblica had an interesting story over the weekend. Apparently, Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti and his team are trying to win support for watering down the EU's deficit and debt rules.

Italy is suggesting that 'virtuous investments' (i.e. public spending aimed at boosting 'growth') should not be counted when calculating a country's deficit and debt under the EU's budget rules (3% deficit, 60% debt-to-GDP ratio). The same exception should be applied to the re-payment of money currently owed by the various public administrations to private firms - some €70 billion in Italy's case.

The always well-informed Marco Zatterin - Brussels correspondent for La Stampa - writes on his blog that Italian Europe Minister Enzo Moavero Milanesi has already been talking to EU Commissioners for Internal Market (Michel Barnier), the Budget (Janusz Lewandowski), and Industry (Antonio Tajani, Italy's man in the Commission) over the past few days. EU Economics and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn is reportedly willing to consider the proposal. The Monti government hopes that EU leaders will discuss the proposal at the European Council at the end of June.

These exceptions, Italy's reasoning goes, would make the fiscal treaty "more sustainable" once it comes into effect. But is this really a good idea? As we pointed out before (see here and here), the fiscal treaty already has some serious credibility issues and has already been watered down.

Allowing for some debt to be swept under the carpet doesn't exactly inspire confidence. Do people remember how we got here in the first place?

Meanwhile, mayoral elections took place in Italy over the weekend (we understand if you didn't notice given everything else that was going on during the eurozone's 'Super Sunday'). Still, a couple of interesting facts are worth flagging up:

• Candidates from Silvio Berlusconi's People of Freedom party did not make it to the second round in any of the bigger cities where elections took place (Genoa, Palermo, Parma and others). Following the results, the party's Secretary General, Angelino Alfano, said that backing for Monti's government continues, but no more 'mini-summits' with the centre and centre-left leaders supporting Italy's technocratic cabinet in parliament will be held from now on. This could have an impact on Monti's ability to push through his reform agenda, especially since he has no electoral mandate to fall back on when things get tough;
 

• Lega Nord, Berlusconi's former ally, also did quite badly in the wake of the scandals that forced its leader Umberto Bossi to step down last month. Lega Nord managed to keep Verona, but lost several towns traditionally considered strongholds in the Lombardy region;
 

• Turnout was about 67% - almost 7% lower than in the previous local elections;

• The Movimento Cinque Stelle (Five Star Movement), led by Italian stand-up comedian Beppe Grillo (in the picture) came out as the real winner. Its candidates achieved double-digit percentages in a couple of important cities (including Genoa, Beppe Grillo's home town, and Parma, where the Five Star Movement's candidate Federico Pizzarotti made it to the final run-off, with 19.5% of votes). A political maverick, Grillo has been campaigning for the need to clean up Italian politics, for instance by barring convicted people from running for the Italian parliament. Most interestingly, he has recently been claiming that Italy should drop the euro (but remain in the EU) and refuse to pay back at least part of its public debt. 

The general elections will be a different ballgame altogether, but it's interesting how the Italians, too, are now looking for something different.

So, who’s running Greece?

We’ll be updating this blog throughout the day with details on the state of the Greek government and the Greek Prime Minister given recent rumours about a change in both. We’ll also cover the dwindling prospects of the Greek referendum ever being held. All times are in GMT.

17.00: - Following a thoroughly confusing and rambling speech by Papandreou it seems that the referendum has been put on hold, for now (this was eventually confirmed by the Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos). According to Papandreou the referendum was being considered because there was no clear consensus (in parliament or in the country) on whether to support the bailout package. Now that the opposition party the New Democracy has said it will support the deal (see below) he will put the referendum on the back burner and push ahead with finalising and implementing the deal.

- Not clear what format the government will take here, but we imagine New Democracy will not agree to the programme without some concessions. Another unity or cross party government could be on the cards then, with it be unlikely that Papandreou will be at the head of it. Ultimately, this will be decided by tomorrow's confidence vote.

- There were also some strange comments from Papandreou in general such as, "there was never any question on Greek membership of the euro", referendum has had a "beneficial shock" for Greece and that Greece is "bearing a cross and they are throwing stones at us" (not clear who they are exactly).

- Dutch Finance Minister for one (and us for two) was not convinced by the change of heart saying,“I have the experience with the Greeks that today is today and tomorrow is tomorrow.” So, we doubt this will be the end of the referendum talk or the speculation.

Open Europe take: Not Papandreou's finest moment, a terrible speech, lacked clarity and didn't tackle the key issues. It seems that the decision to call a referendum may have been a ploy to get the opposition to support the latest bailout package, although to some extent it did come across as the PM's last stand. In the end, avoiding the uncertainty of a referendum may be beneficial for Europe, despite the mess that has been created with its announcement. This has all be handled poorly by the Greek government and eurozone governments. Ultimately, Greece needs the next tranche of EU/IMF aid to survive through to end of December, as such avoiding a disorderly default may be the best outcome here. That doesn't change the fact that the bailout package is still flawed and does not solve the crisis.

14.45: Following a flurry of contradictory messages from Athens this morning and afternoon, it appears a (slightly) clearer picture is emerging. Papandreou has acknowledged that he won't be able force through the referendum, meaning it has been scrapped. The Guardian's live blog reports that some members of Papandreou's party are currently locked in negotiations with the New Democracy opposition over the creation of a Government of National Unity, also being dubbed a Salvation Government (this strikes us as somewhat hubristic). However, the vote of confidence scheduled for tomorrow is still due to take place (for now).

This is not only a big U-turn by Papandreou, but also by New Democracy's leader Antonis Samaras who has reportedly agreed to the details of the EU's bailout package; previously the party had argued in favour of securing a more favourable deal, with less focus on austerity.

13.30: - As it stands, BBC reports that Greek PM George Papandreou is currently speaking with the Greek President Karolos Papoulias and will offer his resignation in the immediate future (however there are still conflicting reports coming from ‘unnamed Greek sources’ suggesting this will not happen).

- Reports suggest that Papandreou’s government is too fractured to survive his resignation and as such the President will need to form a new government. This will likely be a cross-party transitional government, headed by former Greek Central Bank President Lucas Papademos.

- This government has the support of the leader of the opposition party New Democracy, Antonis Samaras, who earlier called for a unity government to be put in place. Samaras also stated that he would support this government approving the latest bailout package, despite previously suggesting he may look to renegotiate.

- After the latest package is approved, general elections will be held (quickest turn around would be 23 days after they are announced) leading to a possible New Democracy government. Questions still remain over the party’s long term commitment to enforcing more EU/IMF austerity. All this means, as of now, it looks very unlikely that there will be a referendum.

Open Europe take: Despite being all over the place, if this happens it could be a reasonably positive outcome. Still huge problems with current bailout plan and better options (proper involuntary debt restructuring) but of course still preferable to a disorderly Greek default and disorderly exit from the eurozone. That said, as we argued on the Today Programme this morning, EU leaders should promptly be planning for all eventualities and not living in denial any longer.

Where would a Lib Dem/Tory pact leave the EU?

So both Gordon Brown and David Cameron have extended an offer to the Lib Dems to begin talks to see whether some sort of coalition, however loose, could be agreed upon to form a Government. But Nick Clegg has said that it is for the Conservatives, as the largest party, to try and form a workable majority first.

Speaking earlier today David Cameron clearly opened the door to a potential coalition with the Lib Dems. There has also been speculation that senior members from the Lib Dems could be offered roles in a Conservative-led government in return for their party's support. However, Cameron also set out the manifesto pledges that his party would not be willing to compromise on, including pledges on immigration, defence and the commitment that "[no] government should give more powers to the European union". According to reports, Mr Clegg and Mr Cameron have already spoken this afternoon and agreed to explore possible deals.

Now, there are lots of things to say about this deal or no-deal. Quite clearly, although many European countries find this type of political uncertainty business-as-usual following a national election, pro-longued uncertainty over who governs this country is in no one's interest. Certainty is particularly important for cleaning up the public finances and injecting confidence into the markets (which are struggling to come to terms with the debt crisis and contagion effect facing the eurozone).

Much will happen before all is said and done, and other governing arrangements might triumph in the end - but just a note on what a potential Lib Dem/Tory coalition might mean for the prospects of EU reform, and the UK's relationship with the rest of Europe:

While electoral reform and the economic recovery will be the key issues in such an arrangement, the EU is clearly a dividing line between the Lib-Dems and the Conservatives, with Nick Clegg still committed to joining the euro in the long-term, favouring a common EU immigration policy and calling for further integration in justice and home affairs. Should the two parties agree to a coalition arrangement, especially if involved a Lib Dem cabinet position, the Conservatives could naturally find it more difficult to push through some of their key policy pledges on Europe. In particular, the Conservatives might fail to get support in Parliament for their flagship policy of a 'referendum-lock' - a law that would require every future transfer of power to the EU to be subject to a referendum in the UK (also 'the sovereign bill' might suffer but it's unclear how meaningful such a bill will be in practice in the first place).

The Conservatives and the Lib Dems could also clash on whether the UK should opt in to the EU's growing number of initiatives in immigration, policing and security policy. Over the next five years, there are a range of key decisions a UK government must take in justice and home affairs, as the Lisbon Treaty drastically accelerates EU integration in this area. Ambitions to opt out of some parts of EU employment law could also be complicated by a Lib Dem/Conservative arrangement.

Needless to say, none of this will go down well with Tory back-benchers or grass-roots.

Other key areas, such as the upcoming negotiations on financial services legislation (in particular the AIFM Directive, set for May 18) and talks on the EU budget, will not necessarily be profoundly affected by a coalition arrangement, since all three main parties tend to broadly agree on substance (although perhaps not on strategy and tone).

However, it's clear that the Lib Dems are out of step with the British public on the EU. Quite apart from the possible merits of a coalition in other areas, it would be most unfortunate if the Conservatives allowed a deal with the Lib Dems to kill off future momentum for EU reform. As we've argued before, Europe is changing - with the eurozone cracking and people across Europe seriously starting to question whether the current model for European integration is sustainable (most people already know it's not democratic) - the long-term prospects for a UK government to find allies and change things in the EU for the better are greater now than in any time in recent history.

Cameron should therfore stand firm on his ideas for EU reform in the talks on a possible coalitionwith Nick Clegg.