Is the Tory Party becoming its own worst enemy in Europe?

Our Director Mats Persson writes on his Telegraph blog:

Many commentators have rightly noted that infighting over the EU and immigration could cost the Conservatives the 2015 general election. There's a second dimension to this, however: by tearing itself apart, ironically, the Tory Party also risks becoming a greater obstacle to the new settlement in Europe (that a vast majority of its MPs want) than anyone in Paris or Brussels.

Make no mistake: if that In/Out EU referendum comes in 2017, the Tory Party will – as Virginians say – split like a Baptist Church. I reckon there are about 30 Tory MPs who are “out no matter what”, 20 who are “in at any cost” and the rest are “swing voters” who would probably prefer to stay in a heavily reformed EU. Most Tory MPs will make up their minds based on what deal David Cameron can get in Europe.

Remember though, it’s not unusual for parties to split over Europe – particularly if referenda are involved. In part, this is a sign of a functioning democracy. In the 2003 Swedish referendum on the Euro, the governing Social Democrats were deeply split, with Ministers from the same government even campaigning on different sides. The French socialists were infamously divided over the European Constitution and in the 1975 EU referendum in the UK, Labour was all over the place.

Cameron yesterday again fought off a Tory EU rebellion, with two amendments to the Immigration Bill being backed by significant numbers of MPs. Dominic Raab’s amendment in particular – limiting the grounds on which foreign criminals can appeal deportation – encapsulated the ongoing clash between European "rule of law" (in this case the ECHR, not the EU) and Parliamentary democracy. It would be odd for the Tories not to discuss this, and it was a fully legitimate amendment.

However, there clearly comes a point when the Tory Party can become its own worst enemy in Europe. It's one thing for the Tories to split when that referendum comes, another to rob itself of the very opportunity to test the limits of EU reform ahead of the vote.

There's a vicious circle at play here. The UK media never seems to get tired of Tory split stories. It only takes a handful of vocal backbench MPs to create a “Tory rebellion” headline. English being the lingua franca, European politicians and commentators read the UK press, drawing the conclusion that, this is really all about a party talking to itself about itself. The many good reform ideas coming out of the UK are dismissed as a matter of “domestic politics” – an image happily (sometimes dishonestly) conveyed by a whole host of special interests, including those who have invested personal prestige in the EU project and seek to maintain the status quo. Cameron, meanwhile, is seen as an unreliable partner not in control at home. This perception is then fed back to the UK press, as a sign that Cameron is “isolated”, in turn hardening backbench opinion.

How to avoid this? Backbenchers need to be aware that every split – manufactured or real – reverberates far beyond the UK’s borders, often working against their ultimate objective. When the UK presents a united front, it often wins in Europe. Secondly, as I’ve argued before, Cameron just has to stop jumping from headline to headline. He’s giving his European partners whiplash. Finally, European commentators and politicians themselves need to be more intellectually honest. Surely, beyond the headlines, they must understand that the UK’s Europe debate is multi-faceted. Don’t use the Tories as an excuse not to engage on substance in the crucial debate about how to reform Europe.

Italian PM Letta survives key confidence vote: What's next for Italy?

What looked like an imminent political crisis has just been defused in Italy. As we anticipated in our previous posts (see here and here), Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta has managed to survive a vote of confidence in the Senate - the upper chamber of the Italian parliament where his Democratic Party doesn't hold a majority.

In a last-minute U-turn, Silvio Berlusconi has decided that his party would support the government after all - turning a potential showdown into a mere formality. Nonetheless, what just happened in the Italian Senate does have consequences for the future of Italian politics. Here are a couple of thoughts.

1. Letta stays on, but uncertainty remains over what his government can deliver

The first, and most obvious, immediate consequence of today's vote is that Enrico Letta can stay on as Italian Prime Minister and maintains, at least on paper, his overwhelming parliamentary majority. However, it remains to be seen what Letta and his cabinet can deliver in terms of bold, concrete measures to get Italy going again - not least because some fundamental differences between the parties forming Italy's ruling coalition will remain.

One may argue that, faced with a party mutiny ahead of today's vote, Berlusconi would have finally learnt his lesson and would think twice before triggering new crises in future. But we wouldn't rule out new coalition rows. Berlusconi is famous for his CEO-style handling of his party, and he tends to take all the big decisions on his own - which makes him a very unpredictable coalition partner.    

Another important issue is: how long will Letta stay in office for? It's no secret that both him and Italian President Giorgio Napolitano would like the current government to continue at least until after Italy's rotating EU Presidency (July-December 2014) - and then perhaps go to early elections at the beginning of 2015. This would still be much earlier than 2018, when the current parliamentary term is supposed to end.

Questions will also remain over whether, if the crisis deepened once again, Italy would really be able to gain access to the ECB’s bond-buying programme, the OMT. As we mentioned above, Letta has clearly won the day - but uncertainty remains over his government's ability to push through unpopular measures.

Crucially, the ECB has made it clear that any country accessing the OMT must have a credible government in place to enforce the necessary conditionality attached to bond purchases (very likely to involve significant structural reform and budget cuts).

2. This is not the end for Berlusconi, but he's just been dealt a hard blow 

There's another reason why today's confidence vote is significant. Looking beyond the appearances (and the last-minute coup de théâtre) Silvio Berlusconi has, in substance, seen his plan to bring Letta's government down disrupted by a rebellion from within his own party. Last weekend's decision to pull his ministers out of cabinet has therefore proved a miscalculation, and will have at least two consequences:

• Berlusconi's threats to bring the government down if he's voted out of parliament as a result of his recent tax fraud conviction are no longer credible; 

• 25 senators from Berlusconi's party have this morning announced the creation of a breakaway group in the Italian Senate, irrespective of how the rest of the party would have voted. Though far from certain at this stage, today's defectors may well decide to follow up and quit Berlusconi's party - which in turn may reduce Il Cavaliere's electoral strength.

Berlusconi has shown his resilience several times, so we are unlikely to be witnessing the end of his political career just yet - even after he's ousted from parliament. Let's not forget that polls suggest he maintains quite large public support, with the help of his control over a large swathe of the media. We wouldn't expect him to take this challenge lying down. That said, his leadership of Italy's centre-right forces has today unequivocally been put into question.

These are our preliminary thoughts. We'll continue monitoring the situation in Italy very closely, so keep following us on Twitter @OpenEurope and @LondonerVince for all the updates.