Fact-checking the Clegg v Farage EU debate

The first EU debate between Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage on LBC was for the most part restrained with a surprising amount of detail and substance. Most of the key fault lines in the UK-EU relationship were touched on.

However, given that the two men represent the polarising ends of the debate, there were also a number of claims that struggled in the accuracy department. Here is our quick 'fact-check' of the key debating points:

Claim - Clegg: I supported a referendum on Lisbon

Verdict: Technically true but highly misleading

On the referendum question, Clegg said that when it came to new EU Treaties transferring new powers to Brussels,

"I've never wavered in that position, that's why the last time the rules changed, something called the Lisbon Treaty, I said there should be a referendum."

It is true that the Liberal Democrats called for referendum on Lisbon but crucially it was an in/out referendum which was not on the agenda at the time - the issue wasn't even put to put to a vote. There was however a vote on whether to have a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty itself on which the party abstained, despite the fact that together Tory MPs, Lib Dem MPs and Labour rebels could have passed it. Clegg is being highly disingenuous by blurring the distinction between an in/out referendum and a treaty specific one. Farage's quip that there was no point waiting for a new Treaty as powers were being transferred to the EU every week via directives and ECJ rulings was quite effective in this context.

Claim - Farage: Under EU rules we have a completely open door to 485 million Europeans 

Verdict - Partially true but unclear on the numbers

It is true that the free movement of labour is a fundamental principle of the EU and the UK cannot limit the numbers of EU migrants coming over. However, Clegg was right to point out that the right to free movement is not completely unqualified - under the free movement directive migrants have to be able to support themselves financially or have 'reasonable' prospects of finding a job.

In terms of Farage's 485 million figure though we have to say we are a bit confused as to where exactly this comes from - the population of the EU28 is around 506 million, which minus the UK's approximately 63 million leaves 443 million.

Claim - Clegg: 3 million jobs would be at risk if UK left the EU

Verdict - Highly unlikely - would depend on a range of other factors

Clegg cited the well-worn '3 million jobs linked to the EU figure' despite established doubts over its veracity. Recently those tending to cite this number have replaced "depend on" with "linked to" but it's still dubious. As we've argued in the past, this claim is one of the most conspicuous examples of a rogue statistic without any credible counter-factual attached to it. The assumptions behind the 3 million jobs figure is that there would be no trade at all trade with Europe if the UK left the EU, which of course is nonsense -  a similarly heroic assumption to that which Better Off Outers make when calculating the cost of EU membership based on all regulatory cost magically disappearing on Day 2 post-Brexit.

Claim - Farage: UK would hold the whip hand in negotiations over a new trade deal with the EU

Verdict - Very uncertain 

Farage argued that in the event of an exit, the UK would "hold the whip hand" in trade negotiations with the EU due to the EU's trade deficit with the UK. We've looked at this in detail - the key point is that while this is true in the area of goods, when it comes to services - a crucial and thriving area of the UK economy - this is not the case. So with that logic, EU countries would have incentive to strike a deal with the UK in goods but not services including financial services. Secondly, the process for leaving the EU - the so-called Article 50 - actually involves less control for the UK than is often assumed, including a Qualified Majority Vote on the final deal in which the UK will not take part.

Claim - Farage: 75% of UK laws come from the EU. Clegg: no it's 7%

Verdict - Both are wrong

The contentious topic of how exactly how many UK laws are derived from the EU also came up, with Farage gleefully citing Viviane Reding's absurd claim that 75% of UK laws are decided in Brussels (as we've argued many times, Reding must secretly be on the UKIP payroll). Clegg went with the House of Commons' Library's briefing which estimated this to be around 7%. Regular readers will know we've analysed this in painful detail and the truth is it is simply not possible to say exactly - what's clear is that it's neither 7% (this only counts primary legislation which isn't meaningful at all) nor 75%. (But basically too many).

Claim - Farage: We give the EU £55 million per day

Verdict - True if counting gross cost, untrue and misleading if counting net cost

Farage is correct that the UK's contribution to the EU works out as around £55 million per day. However, that it is a gross figure which does not include the UK rebate (cold, hard cash the UK gets back from Brussels every year) and nor the UK's receipts from the EU budget (even if this is only UK taxpayers' cash being re-routed via Brussels).

Claim - Clegg: Without the EAW we'd struggle to extradite criminals and terrorists

Verdict - The EAW makes the process faster but it is not indispensable

The European Arrest Warrant (EAW) is used by EU states to speed up extradition procedures. It is true that the EAW has been used by the UK to recover suspected terrorists and other criminals from other EU states who have subsequently been found guilty and locked up. It is however untrue to claim that suspects such Hussain Osman and Jeremy Forrest could not have been recovered without it. Also before the EAW was agreed, there were agreement on extradition and the UK managed to successfully extradite plenty of criminals from EU countries through bilateral procedures. These were considerably slower but it is highly unlikely that with or without the EAW Italy would have wanted to hang on to Hussain Osman or France to Jeremy Forrest.

We can't 'complete' the EU single market in services but we can do a lot better

The APPG on European Reform, to which Open Europe acts as the secretariat, has published a new report, following the Group's inquiry into the EU's single market in services. The APPG held evidence sessions with a wide range of business groups from the City, retail and small business sector to the creative services sector.

The inquiry concluded that there is no ‘single market in services’ in any meaningful sense of the term. This is due in part to the sheer diversity of service sectors in the EU, and because these sectors are regulated by a complex mix of national and EU regulation.

The diversity of services markets in the EU means that the single market in services cannot be ‘completed’ - a term of often used but little understood - by one harmonised set of rules. However, much more can be done to reduce barriers to trade in services across Europe.

The challenges are different depending on the sector. In financial services, the EU's passporting rules have provided firms with benefits to trade across borders - the primary concern is how new EU regulation could curb these benefits and how eurozone crisis response could spill over to the wider single market.

Other sectors, such as retail, are covered by the EU's so-called Services Directive (which regulates sectors that account for around 45% of EU GDP). But a mixture of poor implementation of the ban on some trade protectionism, such as economic needs tests, and the Directive's legal ambiguity mean a large number of barriers remain in place, with firms having to comply with home and host country regulation in order trade across borders, which adds cost and complexity.

The APPG proposes a package of changes and at the top of the list is adopting the ‘country of origin’ principle to enable service providers to trade across EU borders under their home country regulation – if necessary, through enhanced cooperation among a group of like-minded EU member states. This is an idea we've been keen on for a while and set out in detail in a report earlier this year.

Others proposals include:

• reducing the number of regulated professions;
• installing a liberalising EU Commissioner;
• developing the potential of e-commerce;
• applying “Better Regulation” principles; 
• and establishing new mechanisms to block unnecessary or discriminatory regulation and rules that hamper trade with non-EU countries.

The EU has held out for far too long on realising the potential of Europe's services sector. But with the German elections behind us and everyone in Europe talking about competitiveness, there’s now a huge window of opportunity to make this happen.

Services liberalisation: David Cameron has one more reason to love Spain

We reported in today's press summary that Spain's Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy and opposition leader Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba have agreed to adopt a common position ahead of the 27-28 June EU summit. The full document - a draft resolution due to be voted on by the Spanish parliament a couple of days before the summit - is now available online.

We found the following paragraph very interesting (the emphasis is ours). The Spanish parliament urges the government to,

"Favour progress on the completion of the internal market through the swift adoption of the pending legislative proposals under the Single Market Act I and II. Particular attention shall also be paid to the full and effective implementation of the Services Directive."

We couldn't agree more. As we stressed in a recent report, the services sector represents a huge untapped source of growth for the EU. A quick reminder of the figures we're talking about:

• Further liberalisation of services by fully implementing the existing Services Directive and implementing a new 'country of origin' principle would result in a permanent boost to EU-wide GDP of up to an extra €294 billion a year;

• If Spain, the UK and the other ten EU countries that signed a 'pro-growth letter' in February 2012 decided to press ahead among themselves and open up their services markets under the so-called 'enhanced cooperation' procedure, this would still drive EU-wide GDP up by some €148 billion a year.

¿Por qué no?

The real Europe question: how to kick-start growth

We appreciate that Westminster and the media are occupied with the Queen's speech and internal tory divisions over Europe (be them real or overblown), but real story in Europe lies elsewhere: where will the EU's and UK's growth come from?

Well, we know it's not fashionable, but here's a constructive idea.

Open Europe has today released a new report calling for the liberalisation of the services sector across Europe, both through the implementation of the current services directive but also by widening its scope. The report argues that this could boost EU GDP by €300bn and if it cannot be done with all 27 members, the UK and its allies should look to pursue it under ‘enhanced cooperation’ - allowing a smaller group of countries pressing ahead with more integration if not possible at the level of all 27 member states.

See here for the full report and here for a video with British Chambers of Commerce’s Director of Policy and External Affairs, Dr Adam Marshall, discussing the issue and OE’s proposal. That organisation represents thousands of businesses and knows a thing or two what's needed for economic growth, beyond the navel-gazing of the Westminster village and the platitudes of some politicians.

Key points of the report:

- Fully implementing the existing Services Directive and implementing a new “country of origin” principle, a trade-boosting measure that was removed when the Directive was originally negotiated, would boost EU cross-border trade and produce a permanent increase to EU-wide GDP of up to 2.3% or €294bn, in addition to the €101bn already gained under the Services Directive (0.8% of EU GDP).

- If agreement among all 27 member states isn’t possible, a smaller group of EU countries should now press ahead with greater integration in services under the EU’s so-called ‘enhanced cooperation’ procedure, which is being used to pursue the financial transaction tax. This was an idea first floated by Mark Rutte, the Dutch Prime Minister, in 2011.

- In a “pro-growth” letter in February 2012, twelve member states – the UK, the Netherlands, Italy, Estonia, Latvia, Finland, Ireland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden and Poland – all committed themselves to “open up services markets”.

- We estimate that if only this group of countries were to fully liberalise their services markets, it would still produce a lasting boost to EU GDP of up to 1.17% or €147.8bn. If other countries, such as Germany, were persuaded to join, the economic benefits would be increased further. Ultimately, this measure should serve as a springboard to achieve services liberalisation for the entire EU.

- The political benefits of further services liberalisation are threefold:

1) It would be a positive, constructive, and pro-European means by which to secure continued engagement in the EU from non-euro countries, particularly the UK.

2) It would provide a new legally enforceable framework to improve competitiveness and growth in the Southern euro member states and therefore boost the economic prospects of the eurozone, but without costing an extra cent of Northern countries’ taxpayers’ money.

3) It would improve EU-wide growth, competitiveness and employment at a time when Europe is at risk of global economic decline.