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Wednesday, April 17, 2013

Aufstand im Bundestag: Who are Germany's most rebellious MPs?

On Thursday, the German Bundestag is expected to vote on the Cypriot bailout. The package is likely to be approved with a clear majority - the opposition SPD and Greens will mostly back it. In addition, the symbolically hugely important "chancellor's majority" - the threshold for the government to get an absolute majority with only the votes of its own MPs - is likely to be reached as well. Only around 12 MPs from the coalition parties (CDU, CSU, FDP) are likely to vote against. This is not particularly surprising. Remember, the bill for this rescue package was largely passed on to Cypriot depositors, and therefore enjoys much greater support in Germany.

Still, with the eurozone bailouts remaining ever-so contentious - and with a new anti-euro party on the German political scene - we thought we'd see how many coalition (CDU, CSU and FDP) MPs have so far rebelled on the various eurozone bailout votes. 

As the table below shows (click to enlarge), according to our calculations, at least 36 MPs have rebelled against Merkel on at least one occasion. Four MPs - Klaus-Pieter Willsch & Manfred Kolbe (CDU), Peter Gauweiler (CSU) and Frank Schäffler (FDP) - have a 100% record in rebelling on eurozone votes - for the rest, there's a surprising spread.


Denis Cooper said...

I think we can say that German politicians are pretty much united in their desire to see Germany dominate Europe, and that most of the German people support that enduring ambition provided that people in the vassal states pay for their own subjugation, and that once again most British politicians prefer a policy of appeasement rather than resistance.

JWvK said...

What about Manfred Kolbe? If your graphic summary is right, I would count to four MPs...

Rik said...

The first polls with AfD are showing up and more of the ideas of the party become known as well.

Basically as you know I am not very impressed with their leader as votecatcher at least. Which is probably the most important part to make the party successful.

But imho their general strategy looks maybe very honest, but is pretty stupid seen experiences in other countries.

It is a sort of protest party whether they like or not.
These usually can get votes from all over the place not only the right especially in the set up phase. Looking at polls Merkel is even the most unlikely target they can possibly get votes from. The 'potentials' are simply lowest with the CDU.
In that respect attacking all main stream parties looks a much better strategy. It would also put it more on the map a real alternative not more of the same. As said whether this guy is the right one I doubt that.
Steinbruck is more pro-Euro, makes one blooper after another and looks crap compared to Merkel. A much better target than Merkel for an one issue party.

Wilders shows were a party likes this should get its agenda from to get votes. Which is not necessary traditional right. And how to make adjustment during the lifecycle. They should not copy Wilders rhetoric-style but with the policies somewhat adjusted on the field of immigration is not much wrong if you want to be succesful.

Populist parties usually end up in a mess. See also Freie Wahler now. And Grillo. Unhappy people that now think they are important and they are 100% right. Leadership should get a proper grip on that proces. Fortuyn blew up on that. Wilders again has a model that works reasonably.
Party with membership might not be the right form. Not sure if it as a legal requirement btw.
They got the extremist element out which is a clear positive.

Simply a Europhile abusing you (or traditional elitish-left media) is the best possible PR possible for a populist-like party. They defend points that 10s% of the people agree with but no mainstream party does. You might look crap with the rest, but who cares they would never have voted for you in the beginning.
So challenge them to do that. All news on this is nearly positive for the purpose of getting voters. Also in that respect Steinbruck is a great target he will simply just go for it. (Or Westerwelle another PR moron). In fact he already did.
Donot go against Merkel on this issue unless she has clear points of which she cannot return and that are weak in your target voters perspective at least. She is by far the best German politician. Take someone you are more likely to win from.
One of nature most important laws: 'want and easy lunch get a weak target'. Start the CDU with Schauble for instance when he is in Bunderstag approval mode (a bit behind people's back and clear to see).

Imho it would also be better to bring in the democracy issue. Let the people decide but this is our view stuff. This is as weak with traditional parties as the Euro issue itself. Schauble would also be a good target for that.

Open Europe blog team said...

@JWvK Thanks for pointing that out, you're absolutely correct. We've updated the post.