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Thursday, September 19, 2013

Germany's anti-euro party mobilises non-voters and FDP supporters

Three days ahead of the German election, Germany's anti-euro party, Alternative für Deutschland is polling at 5%, according to the latest INSA Poll.

If AfD actually wins 5% of the vote, it will enter the Bundestag. The poll  has caused a bit of a stir, as most commentators didn't think AfD would make it into parliament.

Now INSA head Hermann Binkert has broken down where the potential AfD voters come from for FAZ:

22% FDP
16% CDU
9% Linke
6% SPD
3% Greens
3% first-time voters
13% other parties
28% non-voters

- It's interesting that the largest share of the AfD vote comes from non-voters, so it has mobilised non-voters in a way that other parties have not been able to.

- The second largest share of the AfD vote comes from FDP supporters. The FDP haven't been doing too well in the polls (currently at 6%), so there is  the outside possibility that the AfD will make it into the Bundestag while the FDP won't.


Rik said...

Partly selffulfilling prophecy.
A lot of people will not vote AfD simply because they are not likley to make it. The more realistic however that possibility (AfD in Parliament) gets the more extra voters it will attract both from other voters as from not-voters.

This is the first poll that gives them 5% (probably with some rounding off). I am still pretty sceptic.
News (now Greece strike again and Slovenia). Events (attack by some lefties (probably hired bt AfDs PR agent). Plus a lot of negative rhetoric about AfD from people in power but with no or limited credibility with the man in the street. On the extremes where populists collide with traditional parties it is an enemy of my enemy is my friend more than traditional convincing on policies.
The latter is still happening in the middle of course.
Traditional parties still donot seem to get this.

Rollo said...

I am astonished that it is only 5%;
10% would not surprise me.

Blakenburg said...

One will have to see the results of election. Polls are a guide and majority of time under estimate the reality. People are waking up due to being fed up with traditional leading parties playing politics rather than achieving results that benefit the nation. AfD can not do worse, only do better.38

Anonymous said...

Parties such as AFD, and the more honest Ukip and the Finns etc are the politics of the future: people who've been ignored and effectively disenfranchised realizing that there is a party that is interested in the well being of their respective populations, as opposed to "Parties" simply following along with the globalizing agenda set and executed by the self-appointed political elite.