|Results of the Bavarian state elections|
- Could the results provide a boost to the CDU/CSU and push them an absolute majority at the federal level? This is very unlikely given that the CDU/CSU haven't won an absolute majority at the federal level since 1957 whereas an outright majority for the Conservatives in Bavaria is rather the status quo (except for the previous coalition with the FDP, the CSU has enjoyed an absolute majority for 56 years).
- Furthermore, both the CSU and the SPD gained percentage points compared to the previous elections. This result was basically in line with the large majority of pre-election polls. So it won’t necessarily give either party an edge for the next week’s general elections.
- The FDP lost 4.7% compared to previous state elections and, with overall result of 3.3%, missed the threshold to enter the Bavarian state parliament. This could be seen as a bad omen for next week's general election and may raise the chances of a grand coalition. That said, tactical voting (from CDU/CSU) voters is an important part of FDP support. This result could prompt an increase of such voting at the general election, as CDU/CSU voters fear an FDP failure and the move towards a grand coalition. FDP leader, Philipp Rösler, called its party’s result in the Bavaria elections “a wake-up call”. It could end up being exactly what the party needed to secure its entry to the Bundestag.
- It's also worth noting that the FDP has traditionally faired badly in Bavaria and rarely makes it into the parliament - the last election then was an exception, rather than the rule. Furthermore, the CSU feared losing an absolute majority so many supporters voted tactically at the previous election, at this one the majority was essentially assured.
- The usefulness of the Bavarian elections as a bellwether for the general elections should not be overestimated either - the CSU dominates, while the Free voters also have a strong support base but the Greens traditionally struggle. It's also worth keeping in mind that Alternative fur Deutschland did not run in the elections.