What does Wilders' defeat in Dutch euro elections mean?

For various reasons that we don’t quite understand, most of the UK press has deemed it illegal to report on the exit polls from yesterday’s European elections in the Netherlands - with the exception of the Telegraph and the Guardian. The Netherlands is the only country to conduct exit polls ahead of Sunday night (10pm GMT roughly) when the results from all 28 EU countries are announced.

Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party (PVV) took a clear a beating. If the exit polls stand, the party will have dropped from 17% in 2009 to 12.2% this time around, translating into a loss of 1 seat (the PVV had 5 seats in the last parliament but one MEP defected). This is no doubt an unexpectedly bad result for Wilders.

Source: Ipsos

Wilders’ defeat has given rise to a hilarious conspiracy theory in Brussels that the UK media isn't reporting on the Dutch elections since the result doesn't conform to its alleged anti-EU bias. Apart from the fact that the BBC and others genuinely worry about breaking the law (even though it’s a ridiculous law) this is also a wrong reading of the results.

Wilders screwed up. His controversial comments about Moroccan immigrants caused him real damage. Three of his four sitting MEPs even refused to campaign as a result. But to see this as a victory for the EU status quo in the Netherlands is pretty heroic.

- The strongly Eurosceptic Socialist party gained an extra 3% of the vote, translating into 1 extra seat, which sees it overtake the established centre-left PvdA. Together with the PVV, these strongly EU-critical parties are set to win 22.2% of the vote.

- While it's difficult to know what to read into this result, the parties that we've dubbed “critical reformers” have done relatively well. Prime Minister Mark Rutte's VVD party maintained a respectable share at 12.3%, despite leading an unpopular government, while the Christian Union/SGP increased its share by a percentage point. 

- The two biggest victors are the D66 liberals and the CDA, which are vying for first place on just over 15% of the vote. These parties are clearly pro-EU - and D66 is doing a lot of good work in the EP - however, please do resist the temptation to see this as an endorsement for more EU integration. Firstly, the D66, the great winner of this election, called on a freeze for transfer of powers just before the election, prompting Foreign Minister Frans Timmermans to post on his facebook page "D66 is suddenly also 'very euro critical'". Meanwhile, the CDA vote of 15% is down nearly 5% on its 2009 vote. It would be just as plausible to see the D66 and CDA vote as anti-incumbent vote against the PvdA-VVD coalition government.

- Lastly, turnout in the Netherlands remained stable, but at an incredibly low 37%. With Europe so much more in the headlines over the last few years and the Lisbon Treaty giving MEPs more powers, why in the world hasn't turnout gone up dramatically if it's true that more EP powers and greater awareness will lead to greater voter engagement?

These results certainly present a mixed picture. Wilders' failure to translate his polling into votes is notable but whether this pattern will be repeated elsewhere (in France, for example) remains to be seen - and probably has much to do how badly his campaign went.

The Dutch EU reform agenda - a primer

In previous we've described the Dutch as 'thought leaders' on EU reform. The Dutch Government's 'subsidiarity review' and the Tweede Kamer's report on the role of national parliaments, with its proposals for 'red', 'green' and 'late' cards, all spring to mind.

Many of these ideas were discussed at a seminar in The Hague in January, organised by the Dutch Cingendael and Brussels CEPS think tanks. A short report on the outcome of the meeting is available online and lists over 30 potential reforms to improve democratic legitimacy and accountability. Some are more concrete than others but here are a few of them:

• Give one of the European Commissioners a subsidiarity portfolio.
• Negotiate a political agreement between the Council and the Commission (possibly involving the European Parliament as well), determining certain domains or certain issues where the European institutions will refrain from further initiatives. A closely related alternative is the idea of a moratorium, agreeing not to present new proposals in a specific area for a certain period.
• Establish a separate subsidiarity court to monitor EU legislation.
• Encourage a proactive approach by EU and national legislators to prevent unintended interpretation by the European Court of Justice.
• Ensure that the European Parliament, taking advantage of its role in selecting the next Commission President, does not dictate the agenda to the Commission.
• Introduce ex post subsidiarity control on existing EU legislation to demonstrate whether subsidiarity was respected and to justify the necessity of EU legislative acts on a case-by-case basis. Both member states and the EU institutions should be involved.
• Introduce an informal ‘red card’ for national parliaments, by proposing the political agreement that the Commission will use its discretion to withdraw legislation if one-third of national parliaments raise subsidiarity objections.
• Introduce a ‘late card’, giving national parliaments the opportunity to voice their concerns at a later stage of the ordinary legislative procedure.
• Introduce a ‘green card’ for national parliaments, which would give them the option to table a joint legislative proposal if a substantial number of member states’ parliaments support it.

There are plenty of good ideas here that the Dutch government in particular has been increasingly vocal in supporting. There are many other proposals that we would throw into the mix, from reforming the EU budget by repatriating regional spending to the wealthiest member states to introducing greater legal safeguards for non-eurozone countries.

As our pan-European reform conference showed, there is growing momentum for change in the EU that extends beyond the UK.

Dutch Foreign Minister provides food for thought ahead of Cameron-Rutte talks on EU reform

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte will travel to London to meet David Cameron tomorrow and discuss various EU-related issues. Ahead of the visit, Dutch Foreign Minister Frans Timmermans gave an interesting keynote speech on Europe in Rotterdam yesterday - laying out a few issues Cameron and Rutte may discuss at their meeting.

Here are some key quotes from Timmermans's speech (the highlights of which we featured in our daily press summary today):

It would be an exaggeration to suggest that Europe without the EU would slide into war, but it would also be naive to think it would be better if everyone went their own way.

The idea that it would be in our interest to leave the Union strikes me as nonsense…But this does not mean that there are no drawbacks. European solidarity has a downside, and we should not try to conceal it. The government recognises this fact and is working with other member states to tackle the adverse effects of the free movement of persons, for example.

Sovereignty is a paper tiger. In today’s world, if you want to serve Dutch interests you need influence…But that does not mean giving the EU carte blanche to arrogate more powers to itself. The European Union needs to be modest and understand that there is no Union without the member states…The EU exists by the grace of the member states and their democratic institutions. The EU would do well to secure greater involvement in Brussels decision-making by those democratic institutions, governments and parliaments.

We are making proposals to bolster the role of national parliaments, and [we] favour a smaller European Commission focusing on core tasks. The system of yellow and red cards, which allows MPs in national parliaments to intervene, must be further strengthened. And the Commission mustn’t brush yellow cards aside. National MPs represent national voters and their involvement in the European debate is essential.

I am optimistic. Optimistic about Europe’s capacity to find a new direction. Optimistic about our ability to reform the EU so that it works for us all in an efficient and cost-effective manner...There is no need to rewrite the [EU] treaties. What we need is for the European Council, the European Parliament and the European Commission, shortly after the elections in May, to reach a political deal setting out what the EU’s priorities will be over the next five years, and in what areas the EU will refrain from activity, so that those areas can be left to the member states. 

We've stressed that the Netherlands is emerging as a 'thought leader' on EU reform. The line of the Dutch government is clear: European where necessary, national where possible.

Timmermans's latest speech illustrates that there is plenty of common ground for the UK and the Netherlands to work on. The one snag for Cameron, though, is the repeated Dutch opposition to EU treaty change - something which Cameron has said will be part of his renegotiation. Perhaps we will know more on the treaty change front after the visit of German Chancellor Angela Merkel next week...