Martin Callanan for EU Commissioner?

Commissioner Callanan?

The most high profile UK casualty of last week’s European Elections, other than Nick Clegg obviously, was Martin Callanan, the leader of the Conservatives’ European Conservative and Reformist Group (ECR) in the European Parliament. He lost the sole Conservative seat in the North-East of England. This has caused people in Conservative circles, including the influential Conservative Home website, to float the idea that he would be the ideal candidate for the UK’s European Commissioner. Is this true and if so could it happen?

The decision of who will be the next UK Commissioner is ultimately in the gift of David Cameron who has let drop a few hints already. Firstly, we had a job description leaked in a Number 10 memo that said they were looking for a “political heavyweight who speaks another language”. But there were other considerations. Avoiding a by-election, being a ‘eurosceptic’ but not offending Nick Clegg, and above all someone who could communicate the EU reform and referendum policy to the public and Conservative party alike.Some candidates have some of these qualities. The widely tipped Andrew Lansley has cabinet experience and is a big “big beast” in the Conservative Party but does not tick all the boxes, although in Lansley’s case his Cambridgeshire seat is considered safe from UKIP in a by-election, which would be an additional plus.

Callanan is new to the shortlist and is probably not a bookies' favourite. But he is a popular figure in the Conservative party, particularly among its grass roots, and well known in Brussels where leading the ECR group has given him the knowledge of building alliances and the power-broking needed for the job. In this role he has been through EU budget battles, fisheries reform, negotiating the car CO2 package as well as ensuring the ECR group's survival. Meanwhile, and crucially in many Conservatives' eyes, he has not “gone native”. Added to that, Callanan’s background in the North-East is a perfect counterfoil to Nigel Farage’s appeal to disgruntled former Conservative voters outside London. We do not know if he wants the job but he could well be suited for the tricky role of balancing an economic portfolio, pushing a Conservative reform agenda and credibly selling this in the UK.

So does Callanan tick all the boxes? Well he is not yet a household name in the UK, but running a European Parliament group is valued more highly elsewhere in Europe than in the UK – after all, Martin Schulz, the Socialist EP group leader was a serious candidate for the top job of EU Commission President prior to the elections.

Would Nick agree? Since the election result was a disaster for Nick Clegg it might be safe to assume that his ability to block a candidate is reduced, potentially removing one more obstacle.

Will he get it? Most likely not. As the press has already been reporting (including the FT), the post will probably go to Lansley.

"Something is rotten in Europe" - European elections reaction round-up

As the dust settles following the European elections, we are now beginning to see some interesting analysis and commentary from across the EU. Here is our round-up.

Despite the relative success of the established parties in Germany, many commentators have picked up on the EU-wide picture with FAZ's economics editor Holger Steltzner writing that the rise of anti-EU and protest parties across Europe should serve as a “dramatic warning” and that 

“The EU can no any longer be a one-way street, but should give back [powers] to the member states or local authorities.”

Die Welt's front page leader, written by Alan Poesner argues that:

"Something is rotten in Europe. And the reaction of politicians from the large European party-blocs makes it clear where the problem lies. 'Given the strength of the populists we have to work even closer together' is what you hear from both sides. This means: the establishment is locking ranks and closing its ears."  

In Bild, Jan Schäfer argues that:

"In the future, extremists from both sides will grip Europe like a set of pliers! The result: more nationalism, more little-statism and less free trade. That is bad for exports, for jobs. It is the opposite of what Europe needs right now."

Spain's leading daily El País leader argues that:

“In reality, it will be difficult to get out of the dynamics of a grand coalition, irrespective of whether the latter is the most convenient [option] from the political point of view, which demands a display of alternatives. But there is little doubt [a grand coalition is the most convenient option] from the perspective of the necessary stability of the continent.”  

In Italian daily Corriere della Sera, Aldo Cazzullo argues that:  

“The 2014 [European Parliament] elections will be remembered as the historic defeat of a political system. The eclipse of traditional parties. The rejection of the European establishment… The European vote confirms a trend that extends itself well beyond the continent: the sign of our times is the revolt against the elites, the institutions, the traditional forms of representation. And Europe is perceived as the bedrock and the guarantor of those elites people are rebelling against.”

In France, Nicolas Barré argues in Los Echos that: 

“With regard to Europe, the message from voters and those who abstained is rather a great distress towards political projects that seem empty to them – as [these projects] offer a choice between going backwards, which is always something difficult to enthuse about, and moving forward, but without knowing very well to where. Since the status quo is not an option either, for being so unsatisfactory, one can understand that a large number of voters have stayed away from ballot boxes or have voted 'against'."  

Dutch daily De Volkskrant features a comment piece by Alexis Brezet, the opinion pages editor of French daily Le Figaro in which he argues that:

"the European idea, as developed since the Treaty of Maastricht, is the main victim of the elections. If you add the non-voters to the voters who have supported a europhobic or eurosceptic party, it's only one third of EU citizens which supports the European project. Apparently Europe, which is being shaped without the people and sometimes against the people, doesn't appeal any longer...If Europe wants to win back the hearts of Europeans, simple reparations won't suffice: a fundamental reform is needed." 

A leader in Belgian daily De Tijd argues that:

"the eurosceptics will in-avoidably weigh on decision making in their own countries and in Europe... Cameron will now refuse to make any concessions to Brussels... discussions about British EU membership and its modalities will become very difficult. France is an even bigger problem. The core eurozone country has struggled for a long time already, economically... Now that a quarter of the French have voted for Marine Le Pen... it will become even more difficult for Hollande to implement necessary reforms and savings."

In Poland meanwhile, most commentators are focusing on the national implications of the vote - where Civic Platform beat Law and Justice by a very narrow margin - and have not really commented on the broader European picture.

No doubt much more will be written about these elections in the coming days and weeks, but it's clear that many already consider them to be a potential watershed moment for the 'European project'.

#EP2014 - early impressions

The exit polls are now starting to roll in and there are already some interesting stories emerging.

Turnout looks on course to be similar to 2009. The estimate for 2014 is 43.11% versus 43% in 2009. In Germany, turnout has increased from 43% to 48%. In France, the early signs are that turnout is around 43%, slightly up from 41%. There is however somewhat of an east-west divide, with Poland's turnout down, 22.7% from 24.5%, Czech at around 20% and far lower than the 28% in 2009. Similarly, in Slovakia, turnout is an abysmal 13%. Italy's vote is also down a lot. UK turnout is estimated at 36%, up from 34%.

Regarding the race for Commission President, the centre-right EPP group looks to be the likely winner. In a worrying move for David Cameron, several senior German politicians, including close Merkel ally David McAllister and SPD Vice-Chancellor have gone on record tonight saying that the European Parliament's Spitzenkandidaten should get the job. Next week will be very tricky for Cameron.

France

In terms of the anti-EU/eurosceptic vote, Marine Le Pen's Front National looks set to achieve a clear victory with around 25%, even beating most expectations.  Francois Hollande's Socialists look set to slump to 14%.

Denmark

In Denmark, the anti-EU Danish People's Party are in first place, also with around 25%.

Greece

In Greece, anti-austerity SYRIZA look set for victory with  26-30%, while the neo-Nazi Golden Dawn are on 8-10%.

Finland

In Finland, we only have advanced voting data, but this shows the (True) Finns only getting 12.8 compared to the over 20% they were polling in the run-up. The Centre Party and national Coalition Party are tied on around 22%,

Germany

In Germany, Angela Merkel's CDU have topped the poll with 36%, while the SPD have done better than expected with 27%%. The anti-euro AfD look on course for six MEPs and, due to the Court ruling to drop the 5% threshold in Germany, the far-right NPD have also won a seat.

Sweden

In Sweden, the big winners are the Green Party, gaining 17.1%. The Social Dmeocrats are the biggest party while centre-right Moderaterna looks set to take a royal beating, only mustering 13%. The anti-immigration Sweden Democrats are on 7% and, in a massive upset, the Feminist Initiative also scored 7%.

Poland

In Poland, as expected, the ruling Civic Platform just edged ahead of Law and Justice with both parties getting over 30%. The centre-left SLD were a long way back in third on 9.6 just ahead of the anti-EU Congress of the New Right on 7.2% (whose leader said he wants to blow up the European Parliament).

Lots to chew on already then - we should have a fuller picture by 9/10pm. Stay tuned and follow us @OpenEurope.

Belgium's general election: Will we see another 541 days without a government?

This Sunday, on the same day as the European Parliament elections, Belgium will hold a general election, electing both new federal and regional assemblies to govern 11 million people. The key question is how strong the Flemish nationalist N-VA, which is already the biggest political party, will perform this time around.

Background

The N-VA, a "eurorealist"  formation, wants to reform the country, a mini-EU/Eurozone composed of Flemish and Francophones, into a confederation (although it favours splitting it up in the very long term). It became the biggest party in 2010, but was ultimately excluded from a federal government because it appeared impossible to wrap up a coalition deal with Francophone parties, resulting in 541 days without a federal government.

A coalition of six parties led by Francophone socialist Elio Di Rupo eventually emerged. One big issue was that the coalition did not enjoy support among the majority of Flemish MPs in the federal Parliament. European Council President Herman Van Rompuy, who has been Belgian PM himself, once warned that if such a government would ever be formed, this would be “dangerous for the existence of the state”. His party, the Flemish Christian-Democrats, have now pledged not to enter such a coalition again.  This Sunday, it will become clear how voters have judged this.  For more background on the complexities, we refer you to this comment piece by our resident Belgian expert. 

Post-election scenarios

Scenario 1: Business as usual (most likely)

Opinion polls are notoriously unreliable in Belgium, but suggest that, in the Flemish districts, the N-VA will improve on their 2010 showing, while the three traditional parties will remain broadly at the same level. If they again fail to command a majority of Flemish seats but, nevertheless, prefer to avoid complicated talks with the N-VA, the Flemish Christian-Democrats will need to break their promise, something which they may do if one of them becomes PM and the incumbent Elio Di Rupo is offered a job in the European Commission, for example. Di Rupo's Socialist Party is expected to suffer considerable losses, but would easily remain the biggest party in the Francophone part of the country.

Scenario 2: A federal government which includes the N-VA

Bart De Wever, the N-VA's leader, has himself indicated he's willing to enter a federal government and not make new demands to decentralise powers, if centre-right policies are implemented. The N-VA hopes this pressure may drive the Francophone socialists to return to their historic demands for more decentralisation (in his maiden speech to the Belgian Parliament in 1988, PM Di Rupo himself proclaimed that "there are no Belgians", while demanding "a confederal Belgium").

Such a federal government without Francophone socialists (who have been in power since 1988) but with Francophone liberals and Christian-Democrats is an unlikely scenario, also because this time around it would probably not command a majority of the Francophone seats in Parliament. However, if the N-VA does better than expected, this scenario could materialise.

Scenario 3: Prolonged stalemate 

Last but not least, there is the scenario of another one and a half years of stalemate, prolonged to an indefinite period without a federal government, which could result in negotiations on an eventual divorce. We rate this as very unlikely.

As you can see, it's complicated.

What does Wilders' defeat in Dutch euro elections mean?

For various reasons that we don’t quite understand, most of the UK press has deemed it illegal to report on the exit polls from yesterday’s European elections in the Netherlands - with the exception of the Telegraph and the Guardian. The Netherlands is the only country to conduct exit polls ahead of Sunday night (10pm GMT roughly) when the results from all 28 EU countries are announced.

Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party (PVV) took a clear a beating. If the exit polls stand, the party will have dropped from 17% in 2009 to 12.2% this time around, translating into a loss of 1 seat (the PVV had 5 seats in the last parliament but one MEP defected). This is no doubt an unexpectedly bad result for Wilders.

Source: Ipsos

Wilders’ defeat has given rise to a hilarious conspiracy theory in Brussels that the UK media isn't reporting on the Dutch elections since the result doesn't conform to its alleged anti-EU bias. Apart from the fact that the BBC and others genuinely worry about breaking the law (even though it’s a ridiculous law) this is also a wrong reading of the results.

Wilders screwed up. His controversial comments about Moroccan immigrants caused him real damage. Three of his four sitting MEPs even refused to campaign as a result. But to see this as a victory for the EU status quo in the Netherlands is pretty heroic.

- The strongly Eurosceptic Socialist party gained an extra 3% of the vote, translating into 1 extra seat, which sees it overtake the established centre-left PvdA. Together with the PVV, these strongly EU-critical parties are set to win 22.2% of the vote.

- While it's difficult to know what to read into this result, the parties that we've dubbed “critical reformers” have done relatively well. Prime Minister Mark Rutte's VVD party maintained a respectable share at 12.3%, despite leading an unpopular government, while the Christian Union/SGP increased its share by a percentage point. 

- The two biggest victors are the D66 liberals and the CDA, which are vying for first place on just over 15% of the vote. These parties are clearly pro-EU - and D66 is doing a lot of good work in the EP - however, please do resist the temptation to see this as an endorsement for more EU integration. Firstly, the D66, the great winner of this election, called on a freeze for transfer of powers just before the election, prompting Foreign Minister Frans Timmermans to post on his facebook page "D66 is suddenly also 'very euro critical'". Meanwhile, the CDA vote of 15% is down nearly 5% on its 2009 vote. It would be just as plausible to see the D66 and CDA vote as anti-incumbent vote against the PvdA-VVD coalition government.

- Lastly, turnout in the Netherlands remained stable, but at an incredibly low 37%. With Europe so much more in the headlines over the last few years and the Lisbon Treaty giving MEPs more powers, why in the world hasn't turnout gone up dramatically if it's true that more EP powers and greater awareness will lead to greater voter engagement?

These results certainly present a mixed picture. Wilders' failure to translate his polling into votes is notable but whether this pattern will be repeated elsewhere (in France, for example) remains to be seen - and probably has much to do how badly his campaign went.

What happens next after the European elections? Get ready for a royal punch-up...

With the European elections taking place on Thursday through to Sunday this week, it is worth considering what happens next. The proposed Spitzenkandidaten or European Parliamentary families’ candidates for European Commission President is set to make the post-election horse-trading and politicking more fraught than usual. As we warn into today’s Times this could have huge implications for the future of the EU and David Cameron’s reform agenda.And it will be nothing short of a royal punch-up.

The EU treaties are ambiguous about exactly how the next Commission President should be selected, but the Lisbon Treaty states that EU leaders must for the first time take “into account” the result of the European elections when proposing the new European Commission President. Ultimately, EU leaders retain the power to reach a compromise candidate among themselves, but the EP’s veto over the appointment could lead to a stand-off between governments and MEPs.

Here is a quick timeline to keep in mind – in effect there will be a three round selection process:

ROUND 1 – 22-25 May 2014: election days

27 May: Martin Schulz (currently European Parliament President and the Socialists’ Spitzenkandidaten), Jean-Claude Juncker, the centre-right EPP candidate, meet the other candidates over breakfast to discuss outcome of elections – presumably to put pressure on national leaders who will meet for dinner later the same day to appoint one of the MEPs' chosen men.

ROUND 2 – 27 May: EU leaders meet for dinner to discuss outcome of the elections – they will no doubt discuss whether to opt for a Spitzenkandidat or propose another candidate. Whether an alternative candidate would come from either the centre-left or centre-right will likely to depend on the outcome of the elections. However, it is unlikely EU leaders will be able to publicly select their candidate before the distribution of the political groups is known (see below).

June: formation of European Parliament political groups – this could be important because the post-election jockeying will determine the political groups’ distribution in the new parliament. If the result between the centre-right EPP and centre-left S&D is tight, as it is looking, picking up a few MEPs here and there from other groups could be vital in becoming the largest group.

The focus will also be on whether Marine Le Pen and Geert Wilders manage to put together a new far-right grouping and what the post-election scramble might mean for other groups such as UKIP’s EFD and even the Conservatives’ ECR group. To get the formal status of a political group it must consist of at least 25 MEPs, elected in at least one-quarter of the Member States (i.e. at least 7).

ROUND 2a – 26-27 June: EU leaders meet at European Council meeting. When the European Council has made its proposal for the Commission President, a period of negotiations with the Parliament on his/her political priorities and programme could take place.

1-3 July: EP constitutive session: MEPs officially take up their seats in the Parliament. Election of EP President (not to be confused with the Commission President), vice-presidents and quaestors

7-10 July: official EP political group meetings

ROUND 3 – 14-17 July: session of the Parliament – election of Commission President by a majority of MEPs. Should EU leaders’ candidate be rejected, the European Council, acting by a qualified majority, has one month to propose a new candidate.

Once the Commission President has been elected, the Council, in agreement with the Commission President-elect, adopts the list of commissioners designated (i.e. proposed Commissioners from each member state are assigned a portfolio).

September: hearings of designated European Commissioners. The Commissioners-designate appear before the parliamentary committee(s) relevant to their prospective fields of responsibility. MEPs do not have the power to reject individual Commissioners but, in the past, these hearings have led to candidate commissioners withdrawing or having their portfolio changed.

October (tbc): Vote on the full European Commission. The new European Commission must be approved en masse by a majority of MEPs.

So, given that both parts have an effective veto - echoing the Italian parliamentary system (that great constitutional model for getting stuff done) - this stand-off can last for a long time.

Regardless, it won't be pretty. 

The European Parliament - a failed experiment in pan-European democracy?

In a new report published this morning we assess the track record of the European parliament and conclude that it has failed as an institution on a number of fronts. Although many individual MEPs work hard and conscientiously for their constituents, the European Parliament as a whole has failed to gain popular democratic legitimacy. Still, given that the EP now has a lot of power to decide law that impacts on people's every day life - from working hours to browsing the web - there's a lot of reason to vote in the European elections.

Here are the key findings:

• Turnout has fallen despite an increase in MEPs’ powers: While the use of ‘co-decision’, under which MEPs have equal status with national ministers in passing EU legislation, has more than doubled during the last two decades – from 27% to 62% – turnout in European elections has fallen from 57% to 43%. Yes, yes, correlation not causation (as the old twitter cliché goes) but point is: if the EP was effective in closing the democratic deficit, we would see exactly the opposite trend. 

• There is no correlation between voter turnout and knowledge of the European Parliament or interest in EU affairs: A common explanation for low turnout in European elections is a lack of public knowledge of EU politics and the EU institutions yet this is not borne out by our research. For example, in Romania 81% and Slovakia 79% of people say they are aware of the European Parliament but only 28% and 20% turned out to vote in 2009.

Likewise, low turnout cannot be explained by a lack of interest - in the Netherlands, 61% say they were interested in European affairs – the highest in the EU – yet the turnout of voters at 36% is one of the lowest.

• The main party groups in the European Parliament agree with each other three quarters of the time: It probably won't come as a surprise to anyone who watched any of the 'debates' between Martin Schulz and Jean-Claude Juncker that, despite representing national parties of different political traditions, the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) and centre-left Socialist and Democrat (S&D) party families voted the same way 74% of the time in the 2009-14 parliament. Meanwhile, the average majority in co-decision votes in the 2009-14 parliamentary term is over 75% – the highest it has ever been. In effect, this denies the voters the very same choice the EP is meant to boost. 

• In 2012, the European Parliament spent €85 million on fostering a common European political identity through the party groups in the European Parliament and their affiliated pan-European parties and political foundations outside the parliament. This is only part of a budget that has been spiralling out of control - up from €1.4bn in 2008 to around €1.75bn in 2014.
  
  
  

So those are some of the key problems - what about the solutions? While there is no quick easy fix to what is a complex and multi-faceted problem, the single most effective remedy would be to return democratic accountability closer to voters by boosting the role of national parliaments in the EU decision making process and not repeating the mistake of giving more powers to the European Parliament.

This would involve national parliaments being able to group together to block proposed EU laws and amend or repeal existing rules (see here for more details on this). In parallel, the European Parliament should be stripped of its right to increase the EU budget as it is national parliaments that are responsible for raising the revenue. In addition, MEPs should not be able to veto EU trade agreements agreed by national parliaments.

Meanwhile, the €85 million spent on fostering a common European political identity through the party families in the parliament and their affiliated pan-European political parties and foundations should be cut. The 2009 reforms to MEPs’ allowances should be completed by requiring all allowances, such as the general expenditure allowance (worth €51,588 a year) which is vulnerable to misuse, to be conditional on the production of receipts.

Meet the man who wants to blow up the European parliament

In our recent briefing ahead of the European elections, we estimated that anti-EU, protest and anti-establishment parties of various forms are set to increase their share of the vote and their number of seats in the European parliament.

One such party building up some impressive momentum as polling day approaches is the Polish Congress of the New Right, led by the mega-eccentric, bow-tie aficionado 71-year old Janusz Korwin-Mikke. A few weeks ago the party was polling at 2/3% but in recent polls the party has consistently been at or above the 5% minimum threshold, a result which would give it 3 MEPs.

The party is an odd mix of extreme libertarians and nationalists and Korwin-Mikke himself has been around Polish politics since the fall of Communism without much success. Unlike most parties in Poland, the New Right is strongly anti-EU with Korwin-Mikke describing the Commission as "bastards and Communists", and saying that:

"We are going to the European Parliament to show what a nonsensical institution it is. It's not possible to achieve anything sensible there".

In a speech a couple of weeks ago Korwin-Mikke said that the party would go into the parliament in order to detonate a bomb inside it, while one of his MEP candidates claimed that "the European Parliament is a brothel, a role for which it is ideally suited". On the surface, the party bears many similarities to UKIP and the party may want to join UKIP's EFD group in the EP. However, such an alliance is unlikely given that Korwin-Mikke's views make former UKIP MEP Godfrey Bloom appear like Polly Toynbee. For example, his long-standing view is that women should not have the right to vote as they do not "understand politics" and tend to vote for pro-welfare parties.

However, even the party does make it into the European parliament - Polish polls have proved notoriously unreliable in the past - it will not have any wider implications for Poland's membership of the EU where support is among the highest in the whole EU. It could make plenary sessions in Brussels and Strasbourg more interesting though....

The anti-EU vote: Spot the difference

Question: What's the difference between these two opinion polls for this month's European elections?

Answer: Ok, the percentages in the bottom graph are slightly higher, but there is a striking similarity.

The top graph plots the front runners in the French European elections: Marine Le Pen's Front National, the centre-right opposition UMP, and Francois Hollande's governing Parti Socialiste.

Meanwhile, the bottom graph plots the latest European election poll results for UKIP, Labour and the Conservatives.

There is always a tendency to see the anti-EU/government/establishment phenomenon as unique to one's own country. These European elections are likely to prove otherwise.

New Open Europe/ComRes poll: British voters want changed relationship with EU rather than outright withdrawal

There has been a lot of debate recently about what the UK public really want in terms of the UK’s relationship with the EU. In an attempt to shed some further light on this Open Europe has today released a new poll conducted by ComRes.

The results show that among those certain to vote in next year’s European elections, UKIP would come first overall with 27%, closely followed by Labour on 23%. The Conservatives would come third with 21%. Two-fifths (39%) of Conservative voters from 2010 would vote UKIP in a European election if it were held tomorrow – this remains a major problem for the Conservatives.

However, paradoxically, there’s substantial support for David Cameron’s EU policy. If a referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU were held now, 37% say that they would vote to remain in the EU compared to 41% that say they would vote to leave. But, if there was a significant return of powers to Westminster followed by a referendum, 47% would vote to stay in the European Union, including one in five (20%) voters who say that they would vote UKIP in a UK General Election. Only one third of all voters (32%) would still vote to leave.

Of the individual party leaders, the public still has the most faith in David Cameron to negotiate a better deal for the UK in EU – though it’s clear that there’s a high degree of scepticism about whether a new deal can be delivered by anyone. In order address this 'credibility deficit', Cameron must start to press ahead with substantial reforms now.

 

In general, one thing is clear. That is the desire for a wider choice between simply In or Out. When asked to choose between different possible relationships that Britain could have with the EU, the public’s preferred option is to remain a member of the EU, without the Euro as their currency, but with the significant return of EU powers to the UK (38%). Surprisingly for an anti-EU party, “only” 61% of UKIP voters said they favoured completely withdrawing from the EU, with 30% saying they would be content with “significant return of EU powers”. For every other main party, a slimmed down EU was the single most popular option, suggesting that Ed Millband and Nick Clegg risk ending up out of step with their own voters if they continue to sit on their hands.

Here are some other interesting findings from the poll:

- In a General Election, Labour would win 37% of votes, followed by the Conservatives on 26%, UKIP on 20% and the Liberal Democrats on 9%. Under current constituency boundaries, Labour would win a majority of 110 seats with the Conservatives losing 102 seats. UKIP would not win any seats.

- More than half (55%) of the British public think that the Government should prioritise allowing the UK to have its own immigration policy when seeking to reform Britain’s relationship with the EU. Other areas of priority include giving the UK Parliament more powers to block un-wanted EU laws (42%), reducing Britain’s contribution to the EU budget (36%) and allowing the UK to have control over police and criminal justice laws (32%).

- 38% support the Prime Minister’s policy of negotiating new EU membership terms for the UK and then having an in/out referendum versus 32% who oppose it because they think meaningful renegotiation is impossible or want to withdraw altogether. Only one in ten voters (11%) say they favour the status quo and fear Cameron’s strategy creates “uncertainty”. 68% of Conservative voters, a surprising half of Lib Dem voters (52%), 32% of Labour voters and 21% of UKIP voters support Cameron’s strategy.

- However, when asked the question differently, six in ten (60%) think that it is unlikely that the Government will be able to deliver the changes it wants in the UK’s relationship with the EU – showing that whilst there’s support for Cameron’s strategy in principle, there remains a ‘credibility deficit’ which he must seek to close by pressing ahead with substantial reforms now.

See here for our full briefing on the poll results.