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Sunday, September 22, 2013

German election exit polls suggest plenty of scenarios still in play

The first exit polls are in and it looks to be a very close run election. However, not at the top but at the bottom.
ARD: CDU/CSU 42%, SPD 26%, Greens 8%, Die Linke 8.5%, FDP 4.7%, AfD 4.9%. 
ZDF: CDU/CSU 42.5%, SPD 26.5%, Greens 8.0%, Die Linke 8.5%, FDP 4.5%, AfD 4.8%.
Both polls suggest German Chancellor Angela Merkel CDU/CSU is the clear winner. Well above expected. However the results of the others mean there is plenty of scenarios still open. Below we run through them.

Merkel gains her own majority: Unbelievably this could happen. If both AfD and the FDP miss out, with other small parties garnering around 5% of the vote but not entering the Bundestag, Merkel’s party could gain its own majority with around 42%. Currently they look to be around three seats short of this but after having been barely considered during the campaign, this is now a very real scenario.

CDU/CSU and FDP coalition continues: Despite exit polls suggesting FDP has missed out, they are so close to the threshold that they could easily still make it in. If the FDP gets in and the AfD still misses out then the current governing coalition could be maintained.

Grand Coalition: If the FDP and AfD sneak in above the 5% threshold, as is possible, then a grand coalition would likely ensue, albeit with some very complex negotiations. This could also happen if both the FDP and AfD miss out but Merkel fails to garner enough votes for her own majority.

Plenty of scenarios still possible then, even one which was barely considered. Stay tuned as we update this blog and tweet @OpenEurope throughout the evening.

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