How realistic is Cameron's timetable for EU reform?

As Open Europe Director Mats Persson notes over on his Telegraph blog, in his speech today, Cameron has set himself a concrete timetable, despite the fact that timetables in Europe are notoriously difficult to control. A treaty change discussion could drag on for years. Here we look at how a few examples of how slowly or quickly it takes to reach a decision in Europe.

Basically, EU treaty changes or fundamental reform can take an enormous amount of time - or it can happen in months. It's all a matter of political expediency - and how bad Europe needs it / wants it. The single EU patent, for example, took 37 years to negotiate. Setting up a €440bn bailout fund took 12 hours (though it was followed by a year of bickering over what they actually had agreed).

So here are some examples. Those who say Cameron is stuffed, could point to:

Single EU patent – 37 years 
The Convention for the European Patent for the common market was signed at Luxembourg on December 15, 1975, by the 9 member states of the European Economic Community at that time. However the CPC never entered into force as it was not ratified by enough countries. It took until last December for a an agreement on the creation of a single patent system across 25 member states.

Fisheries reform – 21 years and counting 
In 1992, it was determined that there had been over-investment in vessels, overfishing and that numbers of fish landed were decreasing, and that reforms were needed to address these issues. Completing the reform of the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) by the end of June 2013, in a single reading if possible, is the goal of the current Irish EU Presidency.

UK Rebate – 10 years 
In 1974/75 the Wilson Government sought to resolve the UK contribution question - which was the highest in net terms - during the “renegotiation” of the UK’s terms of accession which it had promised in its October 1974 election manifesto. The UK did achieve a new corrective mechanism but the revised formula (which placed more emphasis on national wealth when calculating our contribution) in practice produced no real benefit to Britain. In 1984, Margaret Thatcher secured the UK rebate in its current form.

European Constitution/Lisbon Treaty – 8 years 
The drafting for European Constitution was initiated by a declaration annexed to the Treaty of Nice in 2001, and the draft Constitution was signed on 29 October 2004 by representatives of the then 25 member states. Following the ‘no’ votes in the French and Dutch referendums, negotiations over the Lisbon Treaty began in 2007 and the new Treaty was ratified in 2009.

...but those who say that, given the enormous stakes, Cameron actually achieve something substantial, could point to:

Limited treaty change to establish new eurozone bailout fund – 5 months 
On October 29 2010, following pressure from German Chancellor Angela Merkel, EU prime ministers and presidents backed "a limited treaty change" to deliver tighter fiscal discipline and allow for the creation of a permanent bail-out fund for members of the eurozone. On March 25 2011, the European Council agreed to amend Article 136 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union with regard to a stability mechanism for Member States whose currency is the euro.

Setting up a new €440bn eurozone bailout fund - 12 hours
On May 9 2010, following 12 hours of talks in Brussels, EU financed ministers agreed to establish the EFSF, a temporary bailout fund composed of government-backed loan guarantees and bilateral loans worth up to €440bn provided by eurozone members.

In EU politics, when you hear someone giving you an easy answer, it's probably the wrong answer...

One to add to the collection

A subtle but telling sentence we just stumbled across in one of the EU Commission's glossy promotional pamphlets:

"The institutional process of updating the rules governing the relations between the member countries and the EU and between the EU and its citizens will continue. The issue of the Constitutional Treaty will be at the forefront of discussions in the years to come, regardless of the form and content of any text that will eventually be adopted."

Bear in mind that this was written in 2006, after the French and Dutch 'no' votes to the EU Constitution.

Another to add to the list of official admissions that the Lisbon Treaty is just a badly disguised version of the original Constitution.

EU leaders admit: it's the old constitution by another name

Bad news for Brown:

Other EU politicians are being more honest than the British government. All over the continent they are freely ‘fessing up that the supposedly ‘new’ treaty is almost no different to the old constitution that was overwhelmingly voted down by French and Dutch voters…

Brown is also talking about an early election - so the attempt to dump the referendum promise will become even more politically toxic...

What people are saying around Europe

German Chancellor Angela Merkel
“The fundamentals of the Constitution have been maintained in large part… We have renounced everything that makes people think of a state, like the flag and the national anthem.” El Pais (25 June)

German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier
German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said that the mandate approved by the EU will “preserve the substance of the constitutional treaty”. Agence Europe (25 June)

Spanish Prime Minister Jose Zapatero
"A great part of the content of the European Constitution is captured in the new treaties”, Zapatero said. “Everyone has conceded a little so that we all gain a lot”, added Zapatero. El Pais (25 June)

Irish Taoiseach Bertie Ahern
“Given the fact that there was strong legal advice that the draft constitution in 2004 would require a referendum in Ireland, and given the fact that these changes haven't made any dramatic change to the substance of what was agreed back in 2004, I think it is likely that a referendum will be held... thankfully they haven't changed the substance - 90 per cent of it is still there."

On the change of name for the EU Foreign Minister he said: "It's the original job as proposed but they just put on this long title - High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and also vice President of the Commission. It's the same job […] it's still going to be the same position." Irish Independent (24 June)

Danish PM Anders Fogh Rasmussen
Danish PM Anders Fogh Rasmussen: “The good thing is...that all the symbolic elements are gone, and that which really matters – the core - is left." Jyllands-Posten (25 June)

Finland’s Europe Minister
Finland’s Europe Minister Astrid Thors: “There’s nothing from the original institutional package that has been changed” TV-Nytt, (23 June)

French President Nicolas Sarkozy
French President Nicolas Sarkozy has claimed victory, saying, “This was France’s idea from the start.” Libération (25 June)

During a press conference Sarkozy said “Competition is no longer an objective in itself – it’s a tool at the service of the internal market but is no longer an objective of the Union… for the first time… the Union has to help ensure the protection of citizens… the word protection is no longer taboo.”

At the Paris Air Show Sarkozy also said that Britain keeping the pound amounted to unfair competition. He said other countries, “can't go on imposing social, environmental, fiscal and monetary dumping' on Europe. I ask that we do with the euro with the US does with the dollar or even what our English friends do with the pound.” CNBC (24 June)

Sarkozy also dismissed the change of the EU Foreign Minister’s name as of no significance. "What does it matter what we call him?" Telegraph (24 June)

Commission President Jose Barroso
Barroso said he was happy that his son was studying law, because under the new treaty: "lawyers have a beautiful future.” Süddeutsche Zeitung (25 June)

Other comments

France

A headline in Le Monde reads: “The symbols have disappeared, the fundamentals remain.” A leader in Le Monde notes that all the “the institutional advances brought by the Constitution have been maintained. While the symbols – anthem, flag etc – have officially disappeared, the permanent presidency remains; and while the minister of foreign affairs has gone back to high representative, he keeps all the new powers that Valery Giscard d’Estaing’s text gave him.” (25 June)

An article in Libération reports that “In the end, the Brussels agreement is unexpected, since the essential of the advances of the Constitution are safeguarded, even if it is horribly complex.” (25 June)

A leader in Le Figaro argues that, “the essentials of the institutional advances have been preserved.”

Germany

Leading MEP Elmar Brok, the Chairman of the European Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee welcomed the outcome of the Summit and said: “Despite all the compromises, the substance of the draft EU Constitution has been safeguarded.” Euractiv (25 June)

Handelsblatt describes the deal as a "diplomatic coup" for Angela Merkel.

Spain

Diego Lopez Garrido, the Socialists’ parliamentary spokesman, was euphoric: “Europe is our strategic bet for the 21st century and from this point of view the summit has been a total success. The referendum which the Spanish approved the Constitution has been decisive, and 99% of its content has survived.” El Pais (25 June)

Spanish diplomats have also dismissed the change in the name of the new EU Foreign Minister. One said: "We have exactly what we wanted. The foreign minister will have the political clout necessary to do his job and will control the administrative services too. Blair was worried about this, but over lunch he calmed down… If your name is Maria, you can call yourself Jane, but you will still do Maria's job." Telegraph (24 June)

Netherlands

According to Het Financieele Dagblad – the Dutch equivalent of the Financial Times: “Jan Peter Balkenenende's government will ask the Dutch council of state for a recommendation on the new treaty. In 2003, the highest advisory body of the Dutch government recommended to organize the referendum specifically because of the charter of fundamental rights. If the council of state stays with this position - and it's difficult to see why not - then it will be very hard for the government not to organize another referendum. That makes it uncertain if the new European treaty can be put into force." (25 June)

Belgium

The Belgian minister of foreign affairs Karel De Gucht has complained that the new treaty seems to have the goal, "of being as illegible as possible". Süddeutsche Zeitung (24 June)

Britain

A leader in the Financial Times admits: “Mr Blair tried to prevent the charter on fundamental rights from being made legally binding. He failed. But he has won a lengthy protocol insisting that it cannot be used to challenge UK laws: in effect, it is another opt-out.” However it notes “It may not be legally enforceable, for it discriminates in the application of fundamental rights.”

Labour MEP Richard Corbett admitted on friday that the new treaty could be as little as 5% different to the old constitution: “The 5% that has been dropped – and I think it is probably more – is actually the crucial bit – the bits that caused people to worry, and they will go.” (BBC PM, 22 June)

Virtual organisation

An agreement has finally been reached. Predictably the Government has claimed victory and is attempting to persuade us it has secured its so-called "red lines".

The reality is that new treaty contains at least 90 -100% of the substance of the old Constitution.

The tough talking and the bluster in the press about red lines was a transparent attempt by the government to create a fake debate in order to appear tough for its domestic audience.

Unfortunately for the Government, it won't wash. Everyone knows that the ludicrous "red lines" were just a distraction. For example - Blair was the only person in Europe talking about giving up the veto on tax. For an analysis of the revised Constitutional Treaty download our new report - "The Constitution by any other name".

Our phones haven't stopped ringing as the press attempts to decipher exactly what the Government gave away in the negotiations. It's strange then that the groups acting as cheerleaders for the new Constitutional Treaty are uncontactable. The BBC has even had to resort to asking us to find people who actually support the new treaty because virtual organisations such as Business for New Europe have gone AWOL on the busiest day of EU news since the French and Dutch no votes two years ago.

Is it possible that their business leaders are finding it difficult to bring themselves to publicly support a new treaty which - despite the Government's promises - will make the Charter of Fundamental Rights legally binding in the UK for the first time?