The £1.7bn question - who's right: Osborne, Farage or the European Commission?

Below we give a blow by blow breakdown of what George Osborne did or did not secure at today’s EU finance ministers meeting. This basically comes down to the UK’s rebate and how it’s applied - and whether it was always going to apply to the £1.7bn.  Osborne claimed that:

As PM said EU bill unacceptable. Now we've halved the bill, delayed the bill & pay no interest on the bill. Result for Britain
— George Osborne (@George_Osborne) November 7, 2014

Whilst Ukip leader Nigel Farage has claimed that:

Osborne trying to spin his way out of disaster. UK still paying full £1.7bn, his credibility is about to nose dive.
— Nigel Farage (@Nigel_Farage) November 7, 2014

This is what EU Budget Commissioner Georgieva said at a press conference just now:

“As we all know the UK receives a rebate on their contribution, but in years when the UK has to pay additional because of GNI corrections, normally this payment would be on 31 December and it would be in the full amount. With the proposal [under discussion]…in exceptional years this period of time would be stretched into the next year, and when this happens, and it would be in these exceptional circumstances, then the payment and the rebate on the payment could converge. In a normal year, they would not. In a normal year, you have a payment on 31 December and then next year, in the spring, we have the calculation of the rebate on this payment.” 

So who’s right?

Well, Osborne is right that the UK will pay half of the initial £1.7bn demand, since the UK’s rebate will now knock off the difference. So in that sense, Farage is wrong. Britain “will not pay the full £1.7bn”. However, the Government’s position isn’t’ entirely what it seems either, since it’s possible (though still not clear) that the rebate was always going to apply to the £1.7bn.
 
Confused? Don’t worry. Few people know how the rebate actually works. Below is our attempt to clarify the issue.

What has actually been agreed?

• The UK secured a delay on its payments and will now have until September 2015 to pay. It will probably pay in July and September 2015.
• It was also agreed that the UK’s £1.7bn bill will have the UK’s rebate applied to it (in the same way all annual contributions do). The Government claims that it wasn’t ever clear whether the rebate would apply, however, Commissioner Georgieva’s suggest that it always would. Usually  the rebate operates on a one year time lag, but now it will be netted off at the same time when the payment is made. The UK government also claims that the rebate applied to the specific amount is above and beyond that which applies normally, due to the way different facets of the rebate are applied and the time period over which it was calculated (we're still looking into this one). 
• This accounts for the reduced the bill from £1.7bn to £850m.

So, Osborne has effectively achieved an ‘interest free’ payment plan for the surcharge, which will see it coincide with the rebate on said surcharge.

Would this always have happened?

• It has been unclear for some time how the rebate would factor in here. Either people were purposefully trying to obscure the question or it was genuinely unclear.
• However, now that it has been settled that the rebate would be applied, it can be said that this reduction would always have happened. The main change is that the rebate has been moved forwarded allowing the initial payment to be reduced.
• On net the UK will pay £850m, but this should always have been the case thanks to the rebate.

Does this impact other countries?

• Since other countries essentially pay for the UK rebate, they will on net be hit.
• Our understanding is that the countries will still get the full amount expected from the GNI calculations – i.e. France should still get €1bn.
• That said, since the rebate is being paid and also a year early, it is likely that their annual EU budget contributions will increase in 2015. On net then, the gains for certain countries (such as France) could actually be less than expected.

So are we looking at a cash flow problem for the EU budget?

• One outstanding question is how this will all work in practical terms. Judging from the European Council conclusions, countries who are getting a pay-out from the GNI calculations can still claim the money on 1 December.
• However, countries who are paying in large amounts can delay their payments until September 2015. It is not clear whether there is enough spare cash in the budget to smooth over this gap.
• Furthermore, the UK is using its rebate to offset its payment. This will not be covered until all countries have paid in their (higher) annual EU budget contributions next year. This further worsens the cash flow problem.

A political conspiracy or genuine uncertainty?

• Questions will now swirl around when all this was known. Surely, if the rebate applies, that was always known to be the case? Logically, since all UK contributions are subject to the rebate, it always was going to be. The only thing that wasn’t entirely clear was when and how it would be factored in. While this is tricky to work out, it’s not clear why the HM Treasury and the European Commission let the dispute run for two weeks. If this was a “set up” by the UK government to claim success, then the Commission was in on it.
• Maybe the handover in Commission has helped breed uncertainty.

So what’s the verdict? Who’s right, Farage, Osborne and Georgieva? Well, Farage is wrong, Osborne right on the amount but may be exaggerated the extent of the concession. The most right is probably Georgieva - though, we still don't have evidence that the rebate was always going to apply.

And of course, the UK will still pay an additional £850 million.

We will update this as events unfold, but what a mess.

Swedish and Dutch patience running out over proposed FTT?

EU finance ministers met today, with the financial transaction tax (FTT) once again topping the agenda.

They were presented with a new proposal or brief under which the 11 countries pursuing the FTT under enhanced cooperation could move forward. The plan involved significantly amended terms and (again) suffered from a significant lack of detail:

• The scope will be “limited” to “shares and some derivatives”, according to German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble – suggesting bond markets and probably repo markets will be exempt. The level of the tax on shares could be cut from 0.1% to 0.01%.
• This will form part of a “step by step approach”, suggesting the tax will be expanded in the future.
• Non-participating countries will be fully informed on all future FTT discussions.
• The FTT will not be introduced until January 2016.
• It is unclear whether Slovenia will participate in the FTT anymore, given that it did not sign the recent statement on the issue due to domestic problems and uncertainty around its government.
• Reuters reports that the revenue from the adjusted tax is expected to be about a tenth of the original forecasts – putting it at €3.5bn.

Those outside the proposed FTT zone showed quite significant hostility to the process of enhanced cooperation (as it has been conducted in this case) and continued to warn of legal action. UK Chancellor George Osborne said:

“The FTT that people have talked about is not a tax on bankers, it’s a tax on jobs, investment and people’s pensions.”

“Here we have a situation where 11 member states are working up their proposals largely in secret, I do not know how involved the Commission is in this or not. Then as we start our discussions here we get a piece of paper handed to us all by the 11 member states saying this is what we have agreed.”

“We will wait to see the final text of the proposal, but we will not hesitate to [legally] challenge an FTT which has extraterritorial impacts, that damages other member states, including the UK, or that damages the single market.”

Osborne was notably annoyed by the fact that the one page sheet on the new proposal was presented to the other EU ministers only five minutes before the meeting. His position was strongly backed by Swedish Finance Minister Anders Borg, who said:

“Even if this is a rather narrow proposal, there is a clear risk of a slippery slope toward a broader proposal with much more harmful effects on growth, and particularly on the capital markets.”

“The burden of proof is on the countries that want to enter the enhanced cooperation to prove, beyond a reasonable doubt, that those not participating are not harmed by this measure.”

“We did not support the U.K. when they started this legal case; we are much closer to doing that, because the process has not been satisfactory during these last few months…I’m very disappointed in the process.”

While even Eurogroup Chief and Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem warned:

“The impression I get is that, you [meaning the 11 FTT countries] have found a very, very small common ground, which is still very vague on the basis for the tax, when it will actually take place, on what products etc. but you have decided we must come out with something before the elections. That’s fine, but please also respect that we’d like to know a little more.”

“I don’t think that there is any basis at the moment for the Dutch government to consider joining, certainly not on what we have here… I’m a little disappointed in the way the process is going at the moment.”

All in all then, while there is talk of progress on the FTT, its scope has been slashed as expected, while the time line has been pushed into the long(er) grass. The process under enhanced cooperation has taken a public hammering, while it remains clear that those involved are struggling to find any clear agreement.

However, the fact that the Swedes and Dutch have expressed their anger so openly highlights that this will continue to be politically fraught. In addition, that the 11 countries seemingly want to reserve the right to expand the FTT in future, means this still has a way to run and future legal challenges are a genuine possibility.

Anglo-German partnership on EU reform could prove crucial at the negotiating table

Die Welt's Economic Editor Tobias Kaiser has an opinion piece in today's paper entitled entitled “Stay with us, Brits”, in which he argues that:

“Berlin needs London as a partner in the fight for fiscal reason [in the EU].” 

Kaiser highlights that:

“Berlin and London have to put their ideas of Europe against the French coined version of European etatism... The openness of the European economy has to be guaranteed and the protectionist regulations and national rules – which still prevent the development of a genuinely free exchange of goods, people, and ideas within Europe – have to be dismantled.”

This is an argument we have been making for a while. In 2012, following the election of Francois Hollande as French President, Open Europe Director Mats Persson argued that:

"Hollande simply rubs the Germans up the wrong way. His spending rhetoric is an outright challenge to German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s vision of a euro firmly grounded in Prussian budget discipline."

"Therefore, though it won’t be easy, the scope for a new bargain between London and Berlin – based on Britain needing new terms of EU engagement if it is to remain inside, and Germany needing the UK’s quiet support for a more economically sustainable euro – is possibly greater than ever."

While Hollande's push against austerity has waned, the process of Anglo-German cooperation has gained pace - exemplified by the recent joint op-ed in the FT where George Osborne and Wolfgang Schäuble agreed on the need for safeguards for the single market in the face of tighter political and economic integration in the eurozone.

Kaiser's call for greater economic openness within the EU also echoes the argument in favour of greater services liberalisation by Die Zeit's London correspondent John F. Jungclausen, who cited Open Europe's report which found that removing barriers to cross-border services trade could alone produce a permanent increase to EU-wide GDP of up to 2.3% or €294bn.

It's good to see the process beginning to bear fruit and gain wider traction in the German media, particularly on the specific areas where reform is necessary. As we pointed out ahead of Chancellor Merkel's recent visit to the UK, there is scope for a wide ranging 'Anglo-German bargain' in areas such as EU migrants' access to benefits, greater powers for national parliaments, and the devolution of some EU back to the national or local level. According to a recent Open Europe/YouGov poll, an EU reform agenda built on these pillars would enjoy significant public support in both countries.

With all this in mind, now would seem the perfect time for the UK government to begin road-testing specific reforms in Germany and other countries. 

UK and Germany present united front in favour of EU reform

In a major coup for David Cameron, Chancellor George Osborne has penned a joint op-ed in the FT with his German opposite number Wolfgang Schäuble. Both argue for the need for EU reform (including services liberalisation) and for safeguards for non-eurozone states in the face of further eurozone integration - all areas of potential consensus we flagged up in our recent 'Anglo-German bargain' briefing.

On the acceptance of the different needs of non-euro and euro members, and therefore the need for safeguards, they say:

“As the euro area continues to integrate, it is important that countries outside the euro area are not at a systematic disadvantage in the EU. So future EU reform and treaty change must include reform of the governance framework to put euro area integration on a sound legal basis, and guarantee fairness for those EU countries inside the single market but outside the single currency.”

Getting explicit German support for this view and providing a united front on this issue is an important step forward for the UK and for Cameron's EU reform agenda. While Germany has previously hinted at willingness to support the UK on this issue, this is certainly a step up. It also brings Cameron closer to ticking off one of the key targets he recently put forward in what was probably the most important article nobody spotted. Open Europe has long argued that safeguards against further eurozone integration are crucial and that they will play a key role in determining the new set up and balance of the EU.

That being said, the UK government should not be complacent about where it now stands in terms of its reform agenda. While this represents progress, there is some way to go. This provides an important opportunity and a good base for the UK to begin testing specific reform proposals on other EU governments and electorates. After all, while Germany is the largest and possibly the most important partner to get on board, the UK also needs to convince the rest of the EU. While teaming up with Germany should broadly help on this front there is one constraint - not everyone buys into Germany's vision of the new eurozone with significant central oversight and limited share of liabilities. However, as the banking union shows, Germany has so far been adept at influencing the construction of new eurozone structures in its own image.

Possibly a more surprising inclusion is the joint support for services liberalisation, of which they say:

“We must complete the EU’s single market, especially in services, open up to international markets and conclude reforms to the euro area.”

Again, we've been advocating this for some time - we estimate that it could be worth up to €294bn for the EU's economy. Traditionally, Germany has been one of the staunchest obstacles to such service liberalisation, due to its many protected professions. As such gaining its public support is another big coup for Cameron and a positive step for the EU economy.

One final interesting point is noted by the FT:

"Mr Schäuble told Bruges’s College of Europe on Thursday that he wanted negotiations on a revised treaty to start straight after the European Parliament elections in May."

This is equally as important as all of the above for Cameron given that some of the biggest doubts around his push for EU reform and referendum have been on the time-frame of the negotiations. There is clear hope that discussions around treaty changes will begin in earnest after the elections (although in an ideal world they would have been part of an open and transparent debate within the elections). 

Overall the approach isn't perfect - it still speaks of a two-speed Europe, suggesting all member states are heading in the same direction, which is not the case - but it is a big step and an important one for Cameron. It is now vital that he seizes this opportunity to push a wider EU reform agenda.

Day 1 of the #EUReform conference: All about substance

Day one of the Open Europe / Fresh Start #EUreform conference covered an enormous amount of ground - kicking off with UK Chancellor George Osborne's widely cited "reform or decline" speech.

300 reformers eager to get on with it, and it was all about substance.

Below are some pictures from the first day.

The Rt Hon. George Osborne giving the opening keynote speech

Reform Lesson from Central and Eastern Europe: Open Europe Berlin's Nora Hesse, Bulgaria's Foreign Minister Kristian Vigenin, Estonia's Foreign Minister Urmas Paet, and former Slovakian PM Iveta Radičová

The Fresh Start MPs giving a press conference 

The breakout sessions discussed a range of ideas for how to make the EU more competitive. 

The Rt Hon. William Hague addressing the "Reformers' Reception" in the evening 

William Hague talking to a group of Swedish MPs