Irony alert as Poles ride to UKIP's rescue in a classic Brussels stitch-up

We reported only a few days ago that UKIP's EFDD group in the European Parliament collapsed after a Latvian MEP resigned, meaning the group no longer met the criteria of having MEPs from at least seven different EU member states. The news drew a lot of media attention (not to mention schadenfreude) mainly due to the financial implications for UKIP - which, according to our estimates, stood to lose nearly €2 million a year in EU funding.

Today, it was announced that Robert Iwaszkiewicz, an MEP with Janusz Korwin-Mikke's KNP (pictured) has joined the group. Korwin-Mikke himself was deemed too toxic to join the UKIP group after the European elections given his controversial views on rape (women always "pretend to resist") and the Holocaust (no evidence Hitler knew about it), and that was before he provoked a full-blown race row. Iwaszkiewicz himself is hardly baggage free; during an interview about with Gazeta Wrocławska a couple of months ago, when asked about domestic violence, he said that:

"I'm convinced that many a wife would benefit from such a response in order to re-connect with reality."

When asked about his Korwin-Mikke's views as described above, he said that "these are taken out of context... when considered broadly, they make sense". In any event, this does not appear to be a principled defection - but rather a classic Brussels-style dirty deal. Polish daily Rzeczpospolita reports that Korwin-Mikke and Farage struck an agreement which would see Iwaszkiewicz's transfer mirrored by an MEP from the EFDD move to the 'far-right' bloc led by France's Marine Le Pen, which also includes Geert Wilders's PVV, the Austrian Freedom Party and Lega Nord, and fell one nationality short of forming an official group during the summer. The paper describes this a "binding transaction" and quotes Iwaszkiewicz as saying that:

"Negotiations are on-going. It was necessary to save them and I had to join urgently".

It remains unclear therefore whether an MEP from the EFDD will definitely join the Le Pen group - but that seems to be the implication. Because of the way the nationalities are represented over the two groups, it would either have to be one of UKIP's 24 MEPs or one of the two Sweden Democrats.

If the former, UKIP and Nigel Farage will face some uncomfortable questions given the extent to which they have tried to distance themselves from the Front National. Regardless, this incident just underscores the absurdity of these taxpayer subsides for European Parliament groups.

Annus horribilis? 2017 could become the EU’s most challenging year to date

We don’t want to be over-dramatic, but 2017 could shape up to be the toughest year for the EU in a very, very long time. Perhaps ever.

If David Cameron gets re-elected, there will be an In/Out EU referendum in the UK in 2017 (though it could perhaps be delayed). With the appointment of Jean-Claude Juncker as new European Commission President and the symbolic defeat that involved, the risk of Brexit is now arguably higher than ever. The UK could leave the EU in 2017.

At the same time, there’s a growing possibility that Front National leader Marine Le Pen – who’s said she expects “nothing from Europe apart from destruction” – could win the French Presidential election due in April/May 2017. According to a new IFOP poll for French weekly Marianne, Le Pen would finish ahead in the first round of the 2017 presidential election with 26% of votes – followed by former President Nicolas Sarkozy on 25%, and President François Hollande or Prime Minister Manuel Valls on 17%. This means Le Pen and Sarkozy would make it to the final run-off. Although, the chances of her winning the run-off are relatively slim, it is notable that her closest challenger could yet be drowned in a corruption investigation.

As we noted yesterday, Swiss voters will likely be asked to vote again on the country’s relationship with the EU “at the latest by the end of 2016, or the beginning of 2017,” according to Swiss President Didier Burkhalter. It could be a “take it or leave it” vote in response to Swiss voters' opposition to the current free movement arrangements and the EU’s refusal to budge on the issue. If the Swiss vote “leave it”, there will be a huge crisis between Switzerland and the EU.

This wouldn’t be pretty at all. Now, we still don’t see this triple-whammy as a central scenario, but it’s hard to find a more ample illustration of why the status quo in Europe is the biggest threat to its survival.

Get on with EU reform. Now.

Has Marine Le Pen put Farage's European Parliament group out of business (and out of pocket)?

UPDATE 16:10 - A spokesperson for Lithuania's Order and Justice told EUobserver that the party "hasn't had any discussions" with Marine Le Pen on a possible alliance. This confirms Le Pen remains at least one party short of forming a group in the European Parliament (see previous update). 

UPDATE 14:05 - We are still waiting for an official confirmation that Marine Le Pen has managed to put together her new group in the European Parliament.

In the meantime, though, it seems the two Lithuanian MEPs from Order and Justice have denied reports that they are going to join forces with Front National. This would leave Le Pen's group one party short of the required number. A Lega Nord spokesman quoted by Die Presse admits that "final discussions are still under way", but still expects Le Pen to officially announce the creation of the group later this afternoon.

ORIGINAL BLOG POST  

It looks like there could be a winner in the contest between Nigel Farage's UKIP and Marine Le Pen's Front National to gather as much support among the fringe parties elected to the European Parliament in order to be able to form (or in UKIP's case maintain) a parliamentary group. Although there has not yet been any official confirmation, Giovanna Pancheri - the Europe correspondent of SkyTG24 - broke the news on twitter yesterday evening that the Polish KNP party (led by Janusz Korwin-Mikke) and the Lithuanian Order and Justice party had agreed to join Le Pen's new European Alliance for Freedom Group. 

Along with the FN, Geert Wilders' PVV, Belgium's Vlaams Belang, Austria's Freedom Party and Italy's Lega Nord, the EAF has enough member states to qualify for an official group. In total, the group will have 44 MEPs (24 of which are from the FN). Having a group means additional staff and funding, a high profile platform in the parliament, and possibly the right to some committee posts.

This means that, as Open Europe predicted a couple of weeks ago, UKIP's Europe of Freedom and Democracy (EFD) group looks in serious trouble having lost the Danish People's Party and the Finns party to the ECR and Lega Nord and now also Order and Justice to the EAF.

In theory, the EFD could yet survive if it holds onto its Dutch MEP, as well as getting Beppe Grillo's Five Star Movement on board (which may prove difficult given its activists will have the final say), the Sweden Democrats, and a couple of other small parties and independents. If it manages to get MEPs from six different member states, it could also potentially secure a special dispensation under EP rules, but this would require the consent of the other group leaders (not sure we would fancy Farage's chances!). While being forced to sit without a group would hardly be disastrous for UKIP politically, given that it has its eyes set on Westminster, losing millions of euros, a bunch of staff that can be used for campaigning and a high profile platform from which to attack the EU would hurt. Ukip better get busy searching for more donors. 

However, despite Le Pen's apparent success in emerging as the figurehead of the main anti-EU group in the EP, there remain a number of questions over the EAF's durability. For a start, the PVV have made clear their unhappiness over Jean-Marie Le Pen's recent anti-Semitic outburst (which is splitting the FN), while the addition of the highly volatile Korwin-Mikke could alienate more 'moderate' MEPs within the group.