Catalonia's symbolic independence referendum: What it means and why it would be wrong to ignore it

UPDATE (1:00pm) - As promised, here's an update on the results of Catalonia's symbolic independence referendum now that all votes have been counted.

Turnout: 2,305,290 people (around 37% of those eligible to vote)
Votes in favour of independence: 1,861,753 (80.76%)

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ORIGINAL BLOG POST (9:55am)

Catalonia's symbolic independence referendum eventually went ahead yesterday. With 88.4% of votes counted, the Catalan government puts turnout at over two million people. Nearly 1.7 million of them (80.7%) voted in favour of Catalonia's independence from Spain. We will update the blog with the final results as soon as they come in.

This infographic from El País compares yesterday's turnout (far right column) with the 2012 Catalan regional elections and the 2006 (binding) referendum on the amended Statute of Autonomy of Catalonia:

In other words, less than a third (32.8%) of those eligible to vote cast their ballot yesterday. However, this is still quite impressive considering that Catalan voters knew yesterday's vote was purely symbolic. Furthermore, the percentage is calculated on a broader electoral base - since young Catalans aged 16 were allowed to vote in yesterday's referendum, unlike in regional elections where the voting age is 18.

On the other hand, the outcome of yesterday's vote is probably not a great indication of where the majority of Catalans stand on independence. Due to the non-binding nature of the referendum, there is likely to be a significant amount of self-selection bias. Many Catalans who felt strongly about independence thought it was worth queuing at polling stations to cast a non-binding vote and show defiance of the Spanish government, while many of those who would vote against independence in a real referendum, or were undecided, stayed home since they knew the result would have no legal validity. 

This certainly helped push up the pro-independence vote to nearly 81%. As a reference, the four pro-independence parties currently holding seats in the Catalan parliament won a total 2,093,709 votes in the 2012 regional elections. 

Recent opinion polls clearly show that the split is much more even than that. For example, a Metroscopia poll published by El País two weeks ago found that 44% of Catalans would vote for independence in a referendum and 42% would vote against. Interestingly, when offered a third option involving "new and bulletproof exclusive competences" for Catalonia, 46% of respondents said they would choose this option, while 29% would vote for independence and 17% would opt for the status quo.

So where does yesterday's vote leave the debate on Catalan independence?  

Pep Guardiola was one of over 2m Catalans who cast their vote

As we argued in our previous blog posts (see here, here and here), the situation in Catalonia has got to a point where the status quo is looking increasingly untenable. The issue has so far been handled quite poorly by both the Spanish and the Catalan governments, who have failed to engage in any meaningful negotiations.

Unsurprisingly, Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has talked down the significance of yesterday's vote and stressed that, if anything, it makes future talks between him and Catalan President Artur Mas more difficult. However, Rajoy's unwillingness to engage in any real discussions with Mas so far makes this position look somewhat strange.

Furthermore, this approach sort of misses the point. The Spanish government continues to use a legal argument (the Spanish Constitution forbids regions from organising binding referenda without the authorisation of Madrid) to address a political problem. In this regard, the fact that the next Spanish general election is due next year is clearly an incentive for Rajoy to show even more inflexibility vis-à-vis Catalan demands.

That said, Madrid and Barcelona can't just keep talking past each other indefinitely. Constitutional reform giving Catalonia (and, why not, other Spanish regions) more powers to set and collect taxes, for instance, would probably go a long way to address Catalan voters' concerns that the wealthy region is paying too much towards the national coffers and getting too little out of it - although it would be simplistic to boil the Catalan question down to money only.

Incidentally, constitutional reform is being openly backed by the new Spanish Socialist leader Pedro Sánchez, the Matteo Renzi of Spain. Going forward, as we already argued no less than two years ago, a reform of the Spanish Constitution envisaging further devolution of powers may well impose itself as the most sensible solution for everyone.

Catalan government calls off independence referendum, but it's not the end of the story

UPDATE (10:55am): 

Catalan President Artur Mas has just been speaking to the press. His remarks were broadly in line with the blog analysis we published earlier (see below).

Two key points from the presser:

• The planned independence referendum will not take place on 9 November. However, somewhat confusingly, Mas said "there will be polling stations and ballot papers" available to hold a "preliminary" vote on the same day. In other words, a purely symbolic, informal referendum (as opposed to the formal, non-binding one previously planned). It remains to be seen how this offer will go down with Catalan voters.

• As we expected, the Catalan leader said he is "at the disposal of the other [Catalan] parties" to call early regional elections. However, he suggested that these elections could only be credible as a proxy for a "definitive" referendum if all the pro-independence parties were to run "as a joint list and on a single programme". Therefore, Mas is clearly using the prospect of early elections to put pressure on the Spanish government, while at the same time trying to hedge his CiU party against the risk of being outflanked by the strongly pro-independence ERC (as we explained below) and taking a beating. 

Meanwhile, Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has hailed the cancellation of the Catalan referendum as "excellent news" and reiterated that he's open to dialogue with the Catalan government.

ORIGINAL POST (9:15am):  

The Catalan government has called off the non-binding independence referendum planned for 9 November. It was really just a matter of time. Catalan President Artur Mas had repeatedly stressed that he wanted the consulta to be legal, so that the outcome of the independence vote could be recognised as valid in Spain and beyond. However, the Catalan law used by Mas to call the independence referendum has been temporarily suspended by the Spanish Constitutional Court after the Spanish government lodged a legal challenge against it. Hence, going ahead with the referendum would have meant breaching the law - something the Catalan leader wants to avoid.

Clearly, though, this is not the end of the story. Mas will reportedly set out an alternative 'participative process' (proceso participativo) in a press conference this morning - but his new proposal is unlikely to be welcomed by the other pro-independence parties.

As we noted in previous blog posts, the 'Catalan question' seems to have got to a point where the option of going back to business as usual is not on the table anymore. The decision to call off the 9 November referendum may have opened a window of opportunity for the Spanish and the Catalan governments to engage in real talks.

Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy may be tempted to shut the door and just ignore Catalan demands, especially after Mas has backed down. However, the Catalan leader still has an ace up his sleeve: he can put further pressure on Madrid by threatening to step down and call early regional elections. A snap vote in Catalonia would very likely see a victory for the hardcore pro-independence Catalan Republican Left (ERC).

The party leader, Oriol Junqueras, said of the decision to cancel the independence referendum yesterday:

"We will have to build up a parliamentary majority to issue a declaration of independence and begin the constituent process of the Catalan Republic".

With a Spanish general election due in November 2015, Rajoy would probably want to avoid having to deal with an ERC-led Catalan government and would therefore be more willing to listen. On the other hand, Mas would be taking a huge gamble himself by threatening to call early elections. The Catalan leader fought the 2012 electoral campaign on the pledge of an independence referendum that he has failed to deliver. Hence, his moderate nationalist Convergence and Union (CiU) party would face the risk of harsh punishment by disappointed pro-independence voters.

One thing is certain: the time of political posturing on either side is coming to an end. The sooner the Spanish and the Catalan government agree to sit at the negotiating table, the better.