Will Tusk take over from van Rompuy, and what would it mean for Cameron?

Tusk and Merkel "discuss the World Cup" ahead of today's
European Council summit (h/t Maciek Sokolowski)

Yesterday, we reported that Italian Foreign Minister Federica Mogherini's bid to become the next EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs has run into trouble due to her perceived lack of robustness vis-a-vis Russia and Putin, with around ten or eleven countries - mostly from central and eastern Europe - opposing her candidacy. We argued that one way to try to square the circle would be to appoint someone from that region as European Council president to replace Herman van Rompuy, with Polish PM Donald Tusk the most credible candidate.

Today's Rzeczpospolita splashed the news that Merkel was urging Tusk to take the European Council President post and a few hours ahead of the European Council summit this scenario remains very much in play:

#EU diplos tell me latest ticket making rounds: #Poland's Tusk as @EUCouncil pres to placate East on #Mogherini at #HighRep. Tusk resisting
— Peter Spiegel (@SpiegelPeter) July 16, 2014

It is understandable why this 'dream ticket' could generate widespread support - it ticks a number of boxes; at least one top post goes to a woman, one to someone from central and eastern Europe, an experienced politician as European Council President and a relatively junior one as High Rep. It is clear why Merkel - who has good relations with Tusk - is pushing his candidacy.

So why is Tusk resisting? Well, the main reason - aside from his lack of language skills - is that he has no immediate successor as Polish Prime Minister (not least because he has culled any potential challengers) and Polish domestic politics are particularly precarious in the wake of the Wprost tapes scandal. Law and Justice are currently leading in the polls and it is not clear whether the government would be able to hang on without fresh elections in the event of a Tusk departure. Moreover, Tusk himself feels he still has unfinished business in Poland.

Nonetheless, Mutti can be very persuasive so it cannot be completely discounted, and van Rompuy's successor does not take over until November, which leaves a bit of time for a transition. Given that the role will be very important in broking David Cameron's potential renegotiation, what would it mean if Tusk got the job?

Well let's start with the positives - like the UK, Poland is a non-euro country so shares concerns about eurozone integration potentially disadvantaging non-euro members. Poland is also economically liberal and backs further expansion of the single market and the EU-US free trade deal (TTIP). Poland and the UK have also been close allies on Energy issues and with Russia having emerged as a common concern, both recently worked together to push the EU to adopt a tougher position on Russia. Finally, if Tusk were to get the job, he would be keen to stay close to Merkel, something Cameron could use to his advantage.

However, on the whole, a Tusk Presidency may not be good for Cameron; the two have a strained relationship, exacerbated in recent times by the row over EU free movement and Cameron's (ill-advised) comments about Poles claiming UK benefits (Tusk's former spokesperson Pawel Gras claimed the Polish PM had a proper f****** go at Cameron over these). Moreover, while Cameron and Tusk may agree on specific issues, Tusk is dismissive of Cameron's broader argument that the EU is need of fundamental reform and he is therefore unlikely to go out of his way to help him get significant concessions - Cameron would therefore need to ensure he has enough support among other national leaders to negate this factor.    

Czech elections: The people have spoken but who will interpret what they said?

Will the Czech sausage machine
 be able to create a government?

As the old adage goes - to retain respect for sausages and governments you should not watch them being formed. To stretch the analogy, Prague remains a giant and possibly broken sausage machine trying to fuse together some unlikely ingredients into a government. Added to this the man in control of the machine, President Zeman, is by no means an impartial observer.

So will the Czech machine manage to form a new government supported by 100+ deputies in the 200 strong parliament? There are a number of possibilities, mostly centred on the Social Democrats (ČSSD) and maverick millionaire Andrej Babiš' new ANO party, but if you do the maths it is just conceivable that ANO could form a centrist/centre-right government excluding the Social Democrats - if all the other small centre-right parties can agree and a Presidential veto is avoided.

Here is the election result translated into seats in the new Parliament:



ODS, the centre-right party which led the last coalition government is still in parliament but is now a shadow of its former self (although polls suggested it could do even worse). Added to the fragmentation of the centre-right another problem is the surprising weakness of the ČSSD Party. This weakness is compounded by President Zeman - whose own SPOZ party failed to make it into parliament - been accused of orchestrating calls for ČSSD leader Bohuslav Sabotka to resign, calls which he has so far resisted. It has been suggested that Zeman's plan could be to replace Sabotka in order to make way for the appointment of his ČSSD ally Michal Hasek as PM.

As with most continental elections, there will be no mad rush to fix a coalition. Agreement between the ČSSD and ANO will not be easy, and there is no longer an obvious ČSSD candidate for PM who would gain the approval of the President. A continuation of the caretaker regime might suit the President and constitutionally there is little to stop him, although this is likely to be viewed with concern in Brussels.

Another possibility is that the President may again try to appoint an ally of his as PM who in turn fails to win a confidence vote - a repeat of what happened over the summer and which leading to the early elections. This could then lead to a centre-right coalition or another early election. But fresh elections seem unlikely to be able to produce any clearer result so a strange flavoured sausage is perhaps on the menu.

Is this a surprise? The fragmentation of the political spectrum (and the centre-right in particular) is the result of widespread disillusionment with the political class. What will this mean for the Czech Republic's policy towards the EU? Under the ODS the Czech Republic was, as we point out here, in David Cameron's pro-reform camp, but the ČSSD is unlikely to follow that route while the ANO is still an open book.