Czech update

Sarko, Barroso et al will be watching the upcoming Senatorial elections in the Czech Republic with eagle eyes. One of the Lisbon Treaty's crucial hurdles hangs in the balance.

The Civic Democratic Party ODS suffered a major blow in regional elections to the Social Democrats and is expected to lose again on Thursday and Friday, thereby risking losing their tiny majority.

If the Czech Constitutional Court then decides that the Lisbon Treaty doesn’t transfer sovereignty away from the country, a simple majority will suffice for the Social Democrats to pass the Lisbon Treaty in the Senate. In the other, more likely case, a three fifths majority is required in the Senate (as detailed in footnote 27 of this paper).

In the latter scenario, the ODS just might be able to block the Lisbon Treaty, depending on how they do in the elections (two fifths means they have to keep 33 of their 41 seats). But even then it's not certain Lisbon will be ditched, as Prime Minister Mirek Topolánek supports it, unlike President Václav Klaus. Their disagreement reflects differing views within the ODS Party on Lisbon - so it all depends on which ODS Senators get re-elected.

If Lisbon does get through the Parliament, President Klaus might try to re-launch the case before the Constitutional court when he has to ratify the Treaty. This will delay ratification even further. Ultimately he could just refuse to sign the Treaty, as it is not clear from the Czech Constitution whether the President has the right not to ratify a Treaty approved by Parliament, so the matter might eventually have to be decided by a Court ruling, again resulting in delay.

This would leave efforts by EU officials to isolate Ireland frustrated and reduce the political leverage of a Czech EU Presidency to press all member states for ratification.