Has Marine Le Pen put Farage's European Parliament group out of business (and out of pocket)?

UPDATE 16:10 - A spokesperson for Lithuania's Order and Justice told EUobserver that the party "hasn't had any discussions" with Marine Le Pen on a possible alliance. This confirms Le Pen remains at least one party short of forming a group in the European Parliament (see previous update). 

UPDATE 14:05 - We are still waiting for an official confirmation that Marine Le Pen has managed to put together her new group in the European Parliament.

In the meantime, though, it seems the two Lithuanian MEPs from Order and Justice have denied reports that they are going to join forces with Front National. This would leave Le Pen's group one party short of the required number. A Lega Nord spokesman quoted by Die Presse admits that "final discussions are still under way", but still expects Le Pen to officially announce the creation of the group later this afternoon.

ORIGINAL BLOG POST  

It looks like there could be a winner in the contest between Nigel Farage's UKIP and Marine Le Pen's Front National to gather as much support among the fringe parties elected to the European Parliament in order to be able to form (or in UKIP's case maintain) a parliamentary group. Although there has not yet been any official confirmation, Giovanna Pancheri - the Europe correspondent of SkyTG24 - broke the news on twitter yesterday evening that the Polish KNP party (led by Janusz Korwin-Mikke) and the Lithuanian Order and Justice party had agreed to join Le Pen's new European Alliance for Freedom Group. 

Along with the FN, Geert Wilders' PVV, Belgium's Vlaams Belang, Austria's Freedom Party and Italy's Lega Nord, the EAF has enough member states to qualify for an official group. In total, the group will have 44 MEPs (24 of which are from the FN). Having a group means additional staff and funding, a high profile platform in the parliament, and possibly the right to some committee posts.

This means that, as Open Europe predicted a couple of weeks ago, UKIP's Europe of Freedom and Democracy (EFD) group looks in serious trouble having lost the Danish People's Party and the Finns party to the ECR and Lega Nord and now also Order and Justice to the EAF.

In theory, the EFD could yet survive if it holds onto its Dutch MEP, as well as getting Beppe Grillo's Five Star Movement on board (which may prove difficult given its activists will have the final say), the Sweden Democrats, and a couple of other small parties and independents. If it manages to get MEPs from six different member states, it could also potentially secure a special dispensation under EP rules, but this would require the consent of the other group leaders (not sure we would fancy Farage's chances!). While being forced to sit without a group would hardly be disastrous for UKIP politically, given that it has its eyes set on Westminster, losing millions of euros, a bunch of staff that can be used for campaigning and a high profile platform from which to attack the EU would hurt. Ukip better get busy searching for more donors. 

However, despite Le Pen's apparent success in emerging as the figurehead of the main anti-EU group in the EP, there remain a number of questions over the EAF's durability. For a start, the PVV have made clear their unhappiness over Jean-Marie Le Pen's recent anti-Semitic outburst (which is splitting the FN), while the addition of the highly volatile Korwin-Mikke could alienate more 'moderate' MEPs within the group.

Who will win the race for the most anti-EU MEPs: Farage or Le Pen?

***Update 18:30*** 

We flagged up earlier that Beppe Grillo was in talks with Nigel Farage and it looks like they have gone well:

#Grillo and #Farage agree to "begin discussions" over new EP group. They will meet again in coming weeks. http://t.co/5CSRVAXyCI #EP2014
— Vincenzo Scarpetta (@LondonerVince) May 28, 2014

This could be a very interesting development - stay tuned!

***Original Post***

The dust is beginning to settle after the European elections, and aside from the drama over the appointment of the European Commission President, the other big developing story is the exact composition of the groups within the new European Parliament.

As we predicted in our pre-elections briefing, despite many commentators predicting the its demise, the ECR group survived, albeit in a diminished state. However, there is a chance it could still end up making up its loses by attracting fresh recruits such as the Belgian N-VA, the Finns party, and, more controversially, the AfD or the Danish People's Party. There has been speculation that Law and Justice could move to the EPP but we consider this unlikely.

Therefore, the big question is: how will the record number of seats for a whole range of anti-EU and protest parties translate into EP groups? (regular readers will know you need at least 25 MEPs from at least 7 different member states). Assuming there will be no formal alliance between the two, the question is whether there will be two 'anti-EU' groups - a 'moderate' group headed by UKIP and Nigel Farage and a 'far right one' headed by Front National and Marine Le Pen, and if so, which one will be larger. Farage and Le Pen virtually have the requisite number of MEPs on their own but it remains to be seen whether they can get 6 other national factions on board.

As we illustrate below (click to enlarge), theoretically, the numbers are there for both but it depends heavily on how exactly the parties end up lining up. UKIP's EFD group are potentially more attractive to new members, but they are also more vulnerable to losing MEPs both to the ECR and to Le Pen's new European Alliance for Freedom (EAF) group, with Lega Nord having already jumped ship.

Click image to enlarge

Le Pen has just given a press conference in Brussels, but nothing new emerged. For the moment, her alliance includes five countries and 38 MEPs - what she described as an "extremely solid basis". Therefore, two more countries (and parties) are needed to wrap up a group, but Le Pen, Wilders & co. were all extremely tight-lipped when asked what these parties could be.

While the neo-fascist MEPs will remain beyond the pale for everyone, the question is will Farage and Le Pen want to link up with parties like Janusz Korwin-Mikke's Congress of the New Right? This could be the missing piece of the jigsaw for both Farage and Le Pen but given that Korwin-Mikke has said that it is "not possible to rape a woman" and that "there is no proof Hitler knew about the Holocaust" the question is whether the domestic reputational costs of such an association would outweigh the benefits. An intriguing possibility would be a Farage-Grillo alliance (the two met today) but ultimately we think this is unlikely.

One potential - and highly ironic - scenario would be if neither group attracts enough national factions in order to satisfy EP rules thereby missing out both on lucrative taxpayer subsidies as well as a highly visible platform from which to undermine the EU from within. In the longer term, could this yet lead to a rapprochement between Le Pen and Farage?