Who will win the race for the most anti-EU MEPs: Farage or Le Pen?

***Update 18:30*** 

We flagged up earlier that Beppe Grillo was in talks with Nigel Farage and it looks like they have gone well:

#Grillo and #Farage agree to "begin discussions" over new EP group. They will meet again in coming weeks. http://t.co/5CSRVAXyCI #EP2014
— Vincenzo Scarpetta (@LondonerVince) May 28, 2014

This could be a very interesting development - stay tuned!

***Original Post***

The dust is beginning to settle after the European elections, and aside from the drama over the appointment of the European Commission President, the other big developing story is the exact composition of the groups within the new European Parliament.

As we predicted in our pre-elections briefing, despite many commentators predicting the its demise, the ECR group survived, albeit in a diminished state. However, there is a chance it could still end up making up its loses by attracting fresh recruits such as the Belgian N-VA, the Finns party, and, more controversially, the AfD or the Danish People's Party. There has been speculation that Law and Justice could move to the EPP but we consider this unlikely.

Therefore, the big question is: how will the record number of seats for a whole range of anti-EU and protest parties translate into EP groups? (regular readers will know you need at least 25 MEPs from at least 7 different member states). Assuming there will be no formal alliance between the two, the question is whether there will be two 'anti-EU' groups - a 'moderate' group headed by UKIP and Nigel Farage and a 'far right one' headed by Front National and Marine Le Pen, and if so, which one will be larger. Farage and Le Pen virtually have the requisite number of MEPs on their own but it remains to be seen whether they can get 6 other national factions on board.

As we illustrate below (click to enlarge), theoretically, the numbers are there for both but it depends heavily on how exactly the parties end up lining up. UKIP's EFD group are potentially more attractive to new members, but they are also more vulnerable to losing MEPs both to the ECR and to Le Pen's new European Alliance for Freedom (EAF) group, with Lega Nord having already jumped ship.

Click image to enlarge

Le Pen has just given a press conference in Brussels, but nothing new emerged. For the moment, her alliance includes five countries and 38 MEPs - what she described as an "extremely solid basis". Therefore, two more countries (and parties) are needed to wrap up a group, but Le Pen, Wilders & co. were all extremely tight-lipped when asked what these parties could be.

While the neo-fascist MEPs will remain beyond the pale for everyone, the question is will Farage and Le Pen want to link up with parties like Janusz Korwin-Mikke's Congress of the New Right? This could be the missing piece of the jigsaw for both Farage and Le Pen but given that Korwin-Mikke has said that it is "not possible to rape a woman" and that "there is no proof Hitler knew about the Holocaust" the question is whether the domestic reputational costs of such an association would outweigh the benefits. An intriguing possibility would be a Farage-Grillo alliance (the two met today) but ultimately we think this is unlikely.

One potential - and highly ironic - scenario would be if neither group attracts enough national factions in order to satisfy EP rules thereby missing out both on lucrative taxpayer subsidies as well as a highly visible platform from which to undermine the EU from within. In the longer term, could this yet lead to a rapprochement between Le Pen and Farage?

"Something is rotten in Europe" - European elections reaction round-up

As the dust settles following the European elections, we are now beginning to see some interesting analysis and commentary from across the EU. Here is our round-up.

Despite the relative success of the established parties in Germany, many commentators have picked up on the EU-wide picture with FAZ's economics editor Holger Steltzner writing that the rise of anti-EU and protest parties across Europe should serve as a “dramatic warning” and that 

“The EU can no any longer be a one-way street, but should give back [powers] to the member states or local authorities.”

Die Welt's front page leader, written by Alan Poesner argues that:

"Something is rotten in Europe. And the reaction of politicians from the large European party-blocs makes it clear where the problem lies. 'Given the strength of the populists we have to work even closer together' is what you hear from both sides. This means: the establishment is locking ranks and closing its ears."  

In Bild, Jan Schäfer argues that:

"In the future, extremists from both sides will grip Europe like a set of pliers! The result: more nationalism, more little-statism and less free trade. That is bad for exports, for jobs. It is the opposite of what Europe needs right now."

Spain's leading daily El País leader argues that:

“In reality, it will be difficult to get out of the dynamics of a grand coalition, irrespective of whether the latter is the most convenient [option] from the political point of view, which demands a display of alternatives. But there is little doubt [a grand coalition is the most convenient option] from the perspective of the necessary stability of the continent.”  

In Italian daily Corriere della Sera, Aldo Cazzullo argues that:  

“The 2014 [European Parliament] elections will be remembered as the historic defeat of a political system. The eclipse of traditional parties. The rejection of the European establishment… The European vote confirms a trend that extends itself well beyond the continent: the sign of our times is the revolt against the elites, the institutions, the traditional forms of representation. And Europe is perceived as the bedrock and the guarantor of those elites people are rebelling against.”

In France, Nicolas Barré argues in Los Echos that: 

“With regard to Europe, the message from voters and those who abstained is rather a great distress towards political projects that seem empty to them – as [these projects] offer a choice between going backwards, which is always something difficult to enthuse about, and moving forward, but without knowing very well to where. Since the status quo is not an option either, for being so unsatisfactory, one can understand that a large number of voters have stayed away from ballot boxes or have voted 'against'."  

Dutch daily De Volkskrant features a comment piece by Alexis Brezet, the opinion pages editor of French daily Le Figaro in which he argues that:

"the European idea, as developed since the Treaty of Maastricht, is the main victim of the elections. If you add the non-voters to the voters who have supported a europhobic or eurosceptic party, it's only one third of EU citizens which supports the European project. Apparently Europe, which is being shaped without the people and sometimes against the people, doesn't appeal any longer...If Europe wants to win back the hearts of Europeans, simple reparations won't suffice: a fundamental reform is needed." 

A leader in Belgian daily De Tijd argues that:

"the eurosceptics will in-avoidably weigh on decision making in their own countries and in Europe... Cameron will now refuse to make any concessions to Brussels... discussions about British EU membership and its modalities will become very difficult. France is an even bigger problem. The core eurozone country has struggled for a long time already, economically... Now that a quarter of the French have voted for Marine Le Pen... it will become even more difficult for Hollande to implement necessary reforms and savings."

In Poland meanwhile, most commentators are focusing on the national implications of the vote - where Civic Platform beat Law and Justice by a very narrow margin - and have not really commented on the broader European picture.

No doubt much more will be written about these elections in the coming days and weeks, but it's clear that many already consider them to be a potential watershed moment for the 'European project'.