European Parliament committees: more secret ballots and backroom deals?

EU democracy at work?

The European Parliament has announced the composition of its Committees, with MEP groups hard at work negotiating the final deals to see who will be Chair and Vice-Chair of the different bodies.

These Committees vary in importance, from the powerful ECON and IMCO committees which deal with Economic and Monetary affairs and the single market respectively - to more niche Committees such as the 'Petitions' Committee.

Looking through the lists of MEPs appointed, the first thing that strikes us is that all the Committees are gigantic - the Committee on Foreign Affairs has a ludicrous 71 members (almost 10% of the entire parliament)! It's not immediately clear why this is, but we can't help but wonder if the possibility for significant travel abroad is not a factor. But even the more serious Committees are of an unwieldy size - Trade (also with some travel perks) has 41 members, which is perhaps more justifiable as the EP now has a veto over free trade deals. It is worth remembering that under Parkinson's "coefficient of inefficiency" a committee of more than 20 members is less likely to make good decisions.

Secondly there are some interesting appointments:

• German neo-Nazi MEP Udo Voigt will sit on the European Parliament's Civil Liberties, Justice and Home Affairs Committee.
• AfD leader Bernd Lucke is to be nominated as vice chair of the ECON committee - in charge of monetary union. Combine this with the fact that the Chair is likely to be an Italian Socialist MEP and some eurozone members might be concerned about this committee.

Under the EU's favoured D'Hondt formula, the different groups are allotted committee chairs according to their relative weights. The ECR group for instance, has secured an additional chair due to its increased size; it has gained Security and Defence on top of its existing Internal Market chair.

However nothing is settled in the EP until you have had the mandatory secret ballot. One potential secret upset could be an attempt to deprive the UKIP/M5S EFDD group of it sole Committee chair - the Petitions committee. Under a secret ballot it is entirely possible for the larger groups to block the EFDD group from chairing a committee.Whether or not you agree with their politics, there is no doubt that they are entitled to such a role, and even the Greens have come out saying as much. Another stitch up here would once again expose a lack of democracy and transparency at the heart of the European Parliament - and surely only play into the hands of those who want to leave the EU.

Farage suffers another defection: can he still put together a group in the European Parliament?

With the deadline for the registration of European Parliament political groups set to expire early next week (the European Parliament's equivalent of a transfer window), even the moves of individual MEPs can be decisive.

Nigel Farage suffered an unexpected blow yesterday, as Dutch MEP Bastiaan 'Bas' Belder (see picture) announced that he would leave UKIP's Europe of Freedom and Democracy (EFD) group and join the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) - the Tories' group.

This complicates things for Farage, who now needs MEPs from at least three more member states (other than UK, Italy, Czech Republic and Lithuania) to gain the seven countries needed to keep his EFD group alive.

Time is running out, but there are still a few options out there, including:

• The Sweden Democrats (who have also applied to join the ECR group); 

• German satirical party Die Partei; 

• Poland's Congress of the New Right (who are also in talks with Marine Le Pen);

• Bulgarian MEP Angel Dzhambazki of the Bulgarian National Movement (VMRO).

Meanwhile, there has been no news from the Le Pen-Wilders front this week. They also need two more countries to wrap up their group. Given that Farage and Le Pen have both ruled out joining forces with Golden Dawn, Jobbik and the German neo-nazi NPD, the room for manoeuvre is now narrower, and the two may well end up contending for the same MEPs. The next few days are going to be interesting.

Germany reacts to ECR vote "Britain knights AfD"

As soon as the news that Germany's anti-euro Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) had joined the Tories' ECR group in the European Parliament - as we predicted would happen - hit the Twittersphere, the German reaction has been swift and pretty condemning.

Although the vast majority of Tory MEPs voted against the AfD joining, they were outvoted by their partners in the ECR.  Nonetheless, the top line is that this is not going to go down well in Germany, and the Conservatives and David Cameron should brace themselves for a lot of backlash.

Germany's Die Welt leads on the home page of its website with "British Conservatives cooperate with AfD."

Leading financial daily Handeslblatt also leads with the story on its front page, with the headline, "Britain knights the AfD."

It is also front-page news on the website of Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, under the headline, "AfD to be in a faction with the Tories in future".

Süddeutsche hasn't missed it either. On their front page, the story is written up as "The AfD docks with Cameron's Conservatives."

Spiegel also puts it on their front page, arguing, "Merkel forced Cameron to say no, but the European Conservatives thought otherwise: The AfD is now a member of their faction."

As we have argued before, Berlin is London's most important ally in achieving a reformed EU. And news of the AfD in the Tories' Conservative group could prove to be a major stumbling block in that process.

Anti-euro Alternative für Deutschland now likely to join Tories' European Parliament group - what will it mean for Anglo-German relations?

Relations between Berlin and London are potentially about to become a lot more complicated.

The Tories raised some eyebrows last week when they allowed the Finns Party and Danish People’s Party – two parties with controversial histories, but who, according to Tory MEPs, have cleaned up their act – to join their European Conservatives and Reformers (ECR) group in the European Parliament.

Even more eyebrows could be raised soon as it now looks highly possible that Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) will also join the ECR.

A vote amongst ECR MEPs is imminent. Number 10 isn't keen at all on the idea, but doesn't actually have a veto over who joins. That’s entirely down to a vote amongst the actual MEPs in the group, with a simple majority needed to approve new applicants.

Number 10 will probably try to make Tory MEPs vote against AfD, but the Tories account for only 19 of 55 ECR MEPs. Most non-UK MEPs will likely vote in favour of allowing AfD to join. This means Number 10 is effectively powerless, short of removing the whip from Tory MEPs or withdrawing from the ECR altogether. Cameron could try to hit the phones to the national leaders of the other parties to try to get them to convince their MEPs to vote against AfD. If successful, he could maybe still block AfD joining.

If AfD joins, it will be explosive. The party would bring seven MEPs to the ECR group, allowing it to potentially overtake the liberals, ALDE, as the third-largest group in the European Parliament (unless ALDE also gets some new recruits). An enlarged ECR would attract additional cash and staff, as well as more important committee posts. Also, the group may well become a more influential voice by virtue of being bigger, and therefore much harder to ignore. It can serve to put significant pressure on the European People's Party (EPP) in particular. You can’t blame Tory MEPs for seeking to maximise their influence.

Also, the ECR strategy appears to involve a concerted effort to strip UKIP's EFD group of its member parties, leading to the its collapse, depriving them of cash and demolishing their platform. Denying them the DPP, the Finns and AfD as members (assuming AfD would even want to join Farage) is a key part of the strategy – which seems to be working so far.

However, with AfD, as with the DPP and the Finns, there’s a big trade-off here: numbers versus image. With the Nordic parties, it was the risk of turning off allies on the liberal right, who are vital to achieving EU reform.

With AfD, it’s all about Angela Merkel. She doesn't deal with AfD. In fact, she barely acknowledges its existence. She once said,

"We consider a collaboration [with AfD] to be out of the question."

Merkel wasn’t happy when Cameron left the EPP-ED group to form the ECR in 2009. Now, joining forces with her arch-enemy will be like chucking a tank of fuel onto the fire. It will also surprise Berlin, since Number 10 has previously ruled out this possibility. In fact, only in February he said:

"In terms of the parties that are going to join that, we have a sister party in Germany, the CDU/CSU. We’re not looking for a new sister party. So I don’t anticipate that situation arising at all."

With AfD, the Independent Greeks (interesting to see whether the two of them will get along) and 'Germany-wary' Law & Justice, the new-look ECR could perceived by some in Berlin as outright anti-Merkel. It's hard to see how this will help Cameron's 'stop Juncker' campaign.

But is it a deal-breaker for a wider Anglo-German bargain on EU reform? Well, to some to some extent the European Parliament follows its own logic. And by having Tory MEPs vote against AfD joining, Cameron will seek to convey a “I did what I could” approach. Indeed, if the plan is for the ECR to become a vehicle for pushing a reformist agenda, there was always going to be a time when the group was no longer going to be “owned” by David Cameron.

Here's a second big potential risk though: yes, these parties share a basic scepticism of current EU. However, parties like the Danish People's Party, Finns Party, Law & Justice are, at best, lukewarm on issues like free trade, reflecting their social democratic core for the first two, and the small 'c' conservative base of the last one. Even AfD has come out against the EU-US trade deal - TTIP - as currently proposed. Remember, TTIP is one of the key items in Cameron's reform package. So, much like the AfD itself, there will be a massive struggle within the ECR over whether it wants to be a solid force for EU reform and free trade or a catch-all sceptical block with a penchant for populism, protectionism and illiberal economics.

You can say that Cameron has no control over his party, or you can say this is an example of a type of devolved democracy (if you’re a federalist, ‘European’ democracy over national politics: this is the system you want) but only time will tell whether this trade-off will be worth it for the wider goal of sweeping reform in Europe.

Merkel and Cameron won't run out of conversation topics any time soon...

Has Marine Le Pen put Farage's European Parliament group out of business (and out of pocket)?

UPDATE 16:10 - A spokesperson for Lithuania's Order and Justice told EUobserver that the party "hasn't had any discussions" with Marine Le Pen on a possible alliance. This confirms Le Pen remains at least one party short of forming a group in the European Parliament (see previous update). 

UPDATE 14:05 - We are still waiting for an official confirmation that Marine Le Pen has managed to put together her new group in the European Parliament.

In the meantime, though, it seems the two Lithuanian MEPs from Order and Justice have denied reports that they are going to join forces with Front National. This would leave Le Pen's group one party short of the required number. A Lega Nord spokesman quoted by Die Presse admits that "final discussions are still under way", but still expects Le Pen to officially announce the creation of the group later this afternoon.

ORIGINAL BLOG POST  

It looks like there could be a winner in the contest between Nigel Farage's UKIP and Marine Le Pen's Front National to gather as much support among the fringe parties elected to the European Parliament in order to be able to form (or in UKIP's case maintain) a parliamentary group. Although there has not yet been any official confirmation, Giovanna Pancheri - the Europe correspondent of SkyTG24 - broke the news on twitter yesterday evening that the Polish KNP party (led by Janusz Korwin-Mikke) and the Lithuanian Order and Justice party had agreed to join Le Pen's new European Alliance for Freedom Group. 

Along with the FN, Geert Wilders' PVV, Belgium's Vlaams Belang, Austria's Freedom Party and Italy's Lega Nord, the EAF has enough member states to qualify for an official group. In total, the group will have 44 MEPs (24 of which are from the FN). Having a group means additional staff and funding, a high profile platform in the parliament, and possibly the right to some committee posts.

This means that, as Open Europe predicted a couple of weeks ago, UKIP's Europe of Freedom and Democracy (EFD) group looks in serious trouble having lost the Danish People's Party and the Finns party to the ECR and Lega Nord and now also Order and Justice to the EAF.

In theory, the EFD could yet survive if it holds onto its Dutch MEP, as well as getting Beppe Grillo's Five Star Movement on board (which may prove difficult given its activists will have the final say), the Sweden Democrats, and a couple of other small parties and independents. If it manages to get MEPs from six different member states, it could also potentially secure a special dispensation under EP rules, but this would require the consent of the other group leaders (not sure we would fancy Farage's chances!). While being forced to sit without a group would hardly be disastrous for UKIP politically, given that it has its eyes set on Westminster, losing millions of euros, a bunch of staff that can be used for campaigning and a high profile platform from which to attack the EU would hurt. Ukip better get busy searching for more donors. 

However, despite Le Pen's apparent success in emerging as the figurehead of the main anti-EU group in the EP, there remain a number of questions over the EAF's durability. For a start, the PVV have made clear their unhappiness over Jean-Marie Le Pen's recent anti-Semitic outburst (which is splitting the FN), while the addition of the highly volatile Korwin-Mikke could alienate more 'moderate' MEPs within the group.

Who will win the race for the most anti-EU MEPs: Farage or Le Pen?

***Update 18:30*** 

We flagged up earlier that Beppe Grillo was in talks with Nigel Farage and it looks like they have gone well:

#Grillo and #Farage agree to "begin discussions" over new EP group. They will meet again in coming weeks. http://t.co/5CSRVAXyCI #EP2014
— Vincenzo Scarpetta (@LondonerVince) May 28, 2014

This could be a very interesting development - stay tuned!

***Original Post***

The dust is beginning to settle after the European elections, and aside from the drama over the appointment of the European Commission President, the other big developing story is the exact composition of the groups within the new European Parliament.

As we predicted in our pre-elections briefing, despite many commentators predicting the its demise, the ECR group survived, albeit in a diminished state. However, there is a chance it could still end up making up its loses by attracting fresh recruits such as the Belgian N-VA, the Finns party, and, more controversially, the AfD or the Danish People's Party. There has been speculation that Law and Justice could move to the EPP but we consider this unlikely.

Therefore, the big question is: how will the record number of seats for a whole range of anti-EU and protest parties translate into EP groups? (regular readers will know you need at least 25 MEPs from at least 7 different member states). Assuming there will be no formal alliance between the two, the question is whether there will be two 'anti-EU' groups - a 'moderate' group headed by UKIP and Nigel Farage and a 'far right one' headed by Front National and Marine Le Pen, and if so, which one will be larger. Farage and Le Pen virtually have the requisite number of MEPs on their own but it remains to be seen whether they can get 6 other national factions on board.

As we illustrate below (click to enlarge), theoretically, the numbers are there for both but it depends heavily on how exactly the parties end up lining up. UKIP's EFD group are potentially more attractive to new members, but they are also more vulnerable to losing MEPs both to the ECR and to Le Pen's new European Alliance for Freedom (EAF) group, with Lega Nord having already jumped ship.

Click image to enlarge

Le Pen has just given a press conference in Brussels, but nothing new emerged. For the moment, her alliance includes five countries and 38 MEPs - what she described as an "extremely solid basis". Therefore, two more countries (and parties) are needed to wrap up a group, but Le Pen, Wilders & co. were all extremely tight-lipped when asked what these parties could be.

While the neo-fascist MEPs will remain beyond the pale for everyone, the question is will Farage and Le Pen want to link up with parties like Janusz Korwin-Mikke's Congress of the New Right? This could be the missing piece of the jigsaw for both Farage and Le Pen but given that Korwin-Mikke has said that it is "not possible to rape a woman" and that "there is no proof Hitler knew about the Holocaust" the question is whether the domestic reputational costs of such an association would outweigh the benefits. An intriguing possibility would be a Farage-Grillo alliance (the two met today) but ultimately we think this is unlikely.

One potential - and highly ironic - scenario would be if neither group attracts enough national factions in order to satisfy EP rules thereby missing out both on lucrative taxpayer subsidies as well as a highly visible platform from which to undermine the EU from within. In the longer term, could this yet lead to a rapprochement between Le Pen and Farage?

Tories' Polish allies label Cameron's migration comments as "unacceptable"

Much has been said and written about EU free movement, indeed the rhetoric has escalated in the weeks before the lifting of transitional controls on citizens from Bulgaria and Romania. The question of on what terms EU migrants should be able to access the UK's welfare system - a crucial and sensitive issue - has been rolled into a wider debate about the costs and benefits of immigration per se.

While the tough message adopted by the government is designed to reassure a concerned public that EU migrants will not be a drain on the public purse, this has also generated a lot of concern among EU partners. While protests from the likes of Viviane Reding and Laszlo Andor will not cause anyone in Whitehall or Westminster to loose any sleep - in fact quite the opposite - the reaction from broadly sympathetic EU partners like Germany and the Netherlands ought to. 

Today, even Poland's largest opposition party Law and Justice (allied with the Conservatives in the European Parliament) stuck the boot in, letting it be known that leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski had personally written to Cameron to complain after the Prime Minister described Labour's decision not to apply transition controls to the A8 countries in 2004 as a "mistake" and a "shameful dereliction of duty". 

In an interview with Polish Radio today, Law and Justice MP Marcin Mastalerek described Cameron's comments as "unacceptable", adding that:

"If Cameron does not revise his view on this subject it will make working together in the European Parliament exceptionally difficult". 

Wprost cites Law and Justice MEP Ryszard Czarnecki as saying that:

"This is a completely mistaken diagnosis of the situation. The British economy has earned billions of pounds thanks to the work of Polish migrants over the past 9 years... I think the letter from [former] Premier Kaczynski will provide Prime Minister Cameron with some valuable material."

He added that he hopes the Polish government would also protest against Cameron's words which "are hurtful to the hundreds of thousands of Polish citizens who are working to advance the welfare of the UK".

Of course Law and Justice cannot afford to be seen giving Cameron a free pass on rhetoric that is seen as being hostile towards Polish citizens, so the tough tone is partially for domestic consumption. It remains to be seen whether the two parties really will struggle to work together within the ECR group.

Former Polish President Lech Walesa also joined the fray, accusing the UK of not appreciating how much they've benefited from the fall of Communism and of behaving "irrationally and short-sightedly".

The wider risk - as we've pointed out in our recent briefing analysing the results of our simulated UK-EU negotiations - is that Cameron's tendency to jump from headline to headline when it comes to EU issues risks alienating potential allies in his bid for reform.

Ten things that David Cameron should NOT say to Angela Merkel

UK PM David Cameron is today meeting German Chancellor Angela Merkel, as part of British efforts to explain to EU partners the thinking behind Cameron's recent EU speech. As we've argued repeatedly, this is the UK's most important bilateral relationship in Europe. So what could Cameron tell Merkel to convince her that his vision of Europe is worth investing in? Well, see here and here for some suggestions.

But knowing British diplomacy, equally important is what Cameron SHOULDN'T say. So after consulting our esteemed colleagues at Open Europe Berlin, we give you ten quips that most certainly wouldn't go down well with the Iron Chancellor - and that Cameron best stay well clear of. Here goes:

1. "How's that new exciting anti-euro party coming along?"

2. "Could you explain this ‘Target 2’ thingy…[pause]…how big!?” 

3. "We have formed this new ECR group in European Parliament - thought you might want to get involved?” 

4. "I always thought the ECB should become more activist."

5. "We’ve got some very clever people in the City who could design those Eurobonds for you. It's the 'inexorable logic' of a monetary union don't you know?" 

 6. "We’ve got a new central bank governor, he’s foreign, and he has stressed the need for ‘flexible inflation targeting’, why are you guys so uptight about Mario?" 

7. "Can you point me to that no-bailout clause in the EU treaties again?" 

8. "Have you been following Berlusconi’s political comeback? Very interesting…" 

9. "Those tweets of yours are hilarious – who says Germans don’t have a sense of humour?" 

10. "So Angela, Nick Clegg and Philipp Rösler - want to swap?" 

One of those is an actual Cameron quote - a free copy of an Open Europe report of choice for those who can figure out which....