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Thursday, May 29, 2014

Have Cypriot deposits finally hit bottom?

Last year, we covered the Cypriot crisis extensively, and the steep decline in Cypriot deposits in particular. As we reported back then, the problem was likely to continue for some time, and did.

But now, just over twelve months on (data from end of April), Cypriot deposits may have hit bottom after increasing by €266m in April - the first increase since December 2012.

  • As the graphs above show (click to enlarge), the increase was driven by money flowing in from monetary financial institutions (MFIs) from the Rest of the World (i.e. outside the eurozone), but mostly in euro currency.
  • Given the well-established links between Russia and Cyprus, it is possible that some Russians could have begun moving small amounts of money back into Cyprus amid the threat of economic and financial sanctions on Russia. Of course, this is speculative, since the data is not detailed enough to see conclusively, while the continuing existence of capital controls would make moving large amounts almost impossible.
  • Domestic deposits continued their slow creep downwards. As the economy continues to struggle, this is likely to continue as wages fall and people eat into their deposits.
  • The headline figures remain bad. Total deposits are 34% below the level in December 2012. Given that much of this has fled the country and/or been written off, it is unlikely to return anywhere close to that level anytime soon.


Rik said...

Would be my guess as well Ukrainian (even more than Russian) and Russian.
Ukrainian as:
a) their currency is going Zimbabwe;
b) banks when the country would split are likely toast, even when it doesnot split;
c) when Russia would pay a visit to finance an extended holiday.

Libanon also a possibility.

Have to see as far as Cyprus itself is concerned if this is a structural recovery.
Doubt it. Financial markets could go in both directions now, when they would go South you wouldnot want your money in a bank in Cyprus.

Anonymous said...

Anyone with money in a Cyprus bank that doesn't need to be there deserves to lose it.

There is absolutely no doubt that the EUSSR is going to steal it to fund its "necessary" budget adjustment..