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Sunday, May 25, 2014

#EP2014 - early impressions

The exit polls are now starting to roll in and there are already some interesting stories emerging.

Turnout looks on course to be similar to 2009. The estimate for 2014 is 43.11% versus 43% in 2009. In Germany, turnout has increased from 43% to 48%. In France, the early signs are that turnout is around 43%, slightly up from 41%. There is however somewhat of an east-west divide, with Poland's turnout down, 22.7% from 24.5%, Czech at around 20% and far lower than the 28% in 2009. Similarly, in Slovakia, turnout is an abysmal 13%. Italy's vote is also down a lot. UK turnout is estimated at 36%, up from 34%.

Regarding the race for Commission President, the centre-right EPP group looks to be the likely winner. In a worrying move for David Cameron, several senior German politicians, including close Merkel ally David McAllister and SPD Vice-Chancellor have gone on record tonight saying that the European Parliament's Spitzenkandidaten should get the job. Next week will be very tricky for Cameron.


In terms of the anti-EU/eurosceptic vote, Marine Le Pen's Front National looks set to achieve a clear victory with around 25%, even beating most expectations.  Francois Hollande's Socialists look set to slump to 14%.


In Denmark, the anti-EU Danish People's Party are in first place, also with around 25%.


In Greece, anti-austerity SYRIZA look set for victory with  26-30%, while the neo-Nazi Golden Dawn are on 8-10%.


In Finland, we only have advanced voting data, but this shows the (True) Finns only getting 12.8 compared to the over 20% they were polling in the run-up. The Centre Party and national Coalition Party are tied on around 22%,


In Germany, Angela Merkel's CDU have topped the poll with 36%, while the SPD have done better than expected with 27%%. The anti-euro AfD look on course for six MEPs and, due to the Court ruling to drop the 5% threshold in Germany, the far-right NPD have also won a seat.


In Sweden, the big winners are the Green Party, gaining 17.1%. The Social Dmeocrats are the biggest party while centre-right Moderaterna looks set to take a royal beating, only mustering 13%. The anti-immigration Sweden Democrats are on 7% and, in a massive upset, the Feminist Initiative also scored 7%.


In Poland, as expected, the ruling Civic Platform just edged ahead of Law and Justice with both parties getting over 30%. The centre-left SLD were a long way back in third on 9.6 just ahead of the anti-EU Congress of the New Right on 7.2% (whose leader said he wants to blow up the European Parliament).

Lots to chew on already then - we should have a fuller picture by 9/10pm. Stay tuned and follow us @OpenEurope.


Rik said...

Congratulations to Christina, Denis, Rollo, AE and SC.
Well run campaign, best of all the parties.

Only mistake I could see was Farage going in the defensive when the Rumenian racist stuff came up.
Better had kept the initiative and countered. As a general representation.
But as well to bring the attention to immigration bottom part. More something like picture dentist, no problem according to IP. Picture Roma camp, no problem according to Mr Ed (or whoever you want to shoot at).
All parties are scared like hell to start a real immigration discussion. Get the focus on the bottom uncontroled mass immigration and it is even a bigger turkeyshoot than Cleggys' EU.

Freedom Lover said...

Personally, my best wishes to the "Malcontents" group. Though, their effect in the EU Parliament will probably be confined solely to critical speeches, rather than votes - many, & potentially all, of the latter of which they may loose.

As other commentators are already saying, the effect will much more probably be felt in domestic politics, than in Brussels or Strasbourg. So forcing domestic & national politicians to call for popular changes to EU policies & procerdures - though probably with only very limited success, bearing in mind how opaquely & self-referentially the EU & its europhile allies work.

But a failure to reform, & a routine response of the customary & accursed mantra of "More Europe", will serve only to alienate even more of the EU's existing malcontent subjects - & encourage ever more of the currently uncommitted to join them! Until the dam of dissent finally breaks - irrevocably!